Education
Long
Education
Education
XAUUSD – Gold Breaks Channel, 4,335 Now In Focus XAUUSD – Gold Breaks Channel, 4,335 Now In Focus
Gold is showing an important change in short-term structure after failing to stay inside the previous rising channel.
Price is trading around 4,433 after a strong bearish break from the channel support. The move is not only a normal pullback anymore. The clean break below the channel suggests that sellers are trying to take control of the short-term direction.
At the same time, the broader daily view still shows gold holding above the 100-day SMA and the middle Bollinger area. This means the larger trend is not fully broken, but the short-term chart is warning that gold may need a deeper correction before buyers can return with strength.
Fundamental view
Gold is still supported on the higher timeframe as long as buyers defend the major moving-average structure. The RSI around 54 shows that momentum remains slightly positive, but not strong enough to call the market overbought.
This creates a mixed environment.
On one side, gold still has medium-term support.
On the other side, the latest price action shows a clear loss of short-term bullish momentum.
That is why the next reaction around the lower support zone will be very important.
Technical view
From the chart, gold has broken below the rising channel and is now trading under the previous channel support.
The first resistance is now around 4,463. This is the nearest sell order area. If price retests this zone and fails to break back above it, sellers may continue to push gold toward the lower support.
Above that, 4,571 is the stronger resistance. This was the previous channel support area, and now it may act as a retest resistance if gold tries to recover.
The main downside target is around 4,335 – 4,362. This zone combines Fibonacci extension, previous reaction level, and strong support. If gold reaches this area and creates a bullish rejection, buyers may attempt a recovery from there.
Key price zones
Current price: 4,433
Nearest resistance: 4,463
Strong resistance: 4,571
Main support / target zone: 4,335 – 4,362
Short-term bearish pressure valid: Below 4,463
Recovery confirmation: Above 4,463
Stronger bullish recovery: Above 4,571
Deeper correction risk: Below 4,335
Trading scenario
Primary scenario – Sell on weak recovery
Sell Zone: 4,463
Entry: Wait for bearish rejection, failed retest, or lower-timeframe bearish confirmation
Stop Loss: Above the rejection high
Take Profit 1: 4,362
Take Profit 2: 4,335
Alternative scenario – Buy from support reaction
Buy Zone: 4,335 – 4,362
Entry: Wait for liquidity sweep, bullish rejection, or clear structure shift from support
Stop Loss: Below 4,335
Take Profit 1: 4,463
Take Profit 2: 4,571
My view
Gold is still not fully bearish on the higher timeframe, but the short-term structure has weakened clearly.
The break below the rising channel changed the immediate picture. As long as price stays below 4,463, sellers still have room to pressure gold toward 4,362 and 4,335.
For buyers, the best area to watch is not the middle of the move. The cleaner reaction zone is near 4,335 – 4,362, where support and Fibonacci target are aligned.
Main view: wait for confirmation around 4,463 or 4,335 – 4,362. A weak retest favors sellers. A strong rejection from support may open the next recovery attempt.
Do you think gold will defend 4,335, or will sellers extend the correction deeper this week?
Short
XAUUSD — Wave 4 Rebound Before Wave 5XAUUSD — Wave 4 Rebound Before Wave 5
Gold is showing a clear bearish Elliott Wave structure after the strong rejection from the upper area near 4,620–4,640. From Kelly’s view, the current chart suggests that XAUUSD may have already completed wave (3) into the 4,400–4,425 zone, and the market could now build a corrective wave (4) before continuing lower into wave (5).
The key idea is simple: gold may rebound first, but as long as the recovery stays below the sell FVG zone, the larger short-term structure still favors another bearish leg.
⟡ Market Structure
Price is currently trading around 4,421, right inside the Resistance Fibonacci wave 4 area. This zone is important because it may decide whether gold continues lower immediately or makes a temporary recovery first.
The recent selloff was strong and impulsive, which supports the idea that sellers are still controlling the market. However, after such a sharp drop, a short correction toward the upper FVG area is possible before the next bearish continuation.
The main sell reaction zone on the chart sits around 4,500–4,530, marked as the FVG Sell wave 5 area. If gold rebounds into this zone and fails to break higher, sellers may step in again for the next downside move.
➤ Key Levels
◌ Current price area: 4,421
◌ Resistance Fibonacci wave 4: 4,400–4,425
◌ FVG Sell wave 5 zone: 4,500–4,530
◌ Key sell reaction level: 4,507
◌ Main downside target: 4,280–4,300
◌ End wave 5 level: around 4,286
◌ Bullish invalidation: above 4,540
⌁ Elliott Wave View
The chart is showing a bearish 5-wave sequence.
Wave (1) formed after the first rejection from the top.
Wave (2) created a corrective rebound near 4,620–4,640.
Wave (3) pushed strongly lower into the 4,400–4,425 Fibonacci zone.
Wave (4) may now create a corrective rebound toward 4,500–4,530.
If that zone rejects price, wave (5) may continue lower toward 4,280–4,300.
This is why Kelly is not chasing sells at the current low. The cleaner setup is to wait for either a weak rebound into the sell FVG zone or a clear breakdown below the current support structure.
▸ Trading Scenario
Preferred bearish scenario
Entry: Sell around 4,500–4,530 if price gives bearish rejection from the FVG Sell wave 5 zone
Stop Loss: Above 4,540
Take Profit 1: 4,400–4,425
Take Profit 2: 4,340–4,320
Take Profit 3: 4,280–4,300
Alternative entry
If gold fails to recover and breaks below 4,400 with strong bearish momentum, sellers may look for continuation toward 4,286 without waiting for a deeper pullback.
◌ Invalidation
The bearish view becomes weaker if gold breaks above 4,540 and holds above the FVG sell zone. In that case, the wave (4) correction may extend higher and the wave (5) downside scenario would need to be delayed.
⌁ Kelly’s View
Kelly’s main view remains bearish, but not to sell blindly at the current price. Gold is sitting near an important Fibonacci reaction zone, so a short rebound can happen first.
If price pulls back into 4,500–4,530 and rejects, the bearish wave 5 setup becomes cleaner, with the main target near 4,280–4,300.
Do you think gold will retest the FVG sell zone first, or continue directly toward wave (5)? Short 
Long
28th Aug 2026 Nifty Report — Another Flattish Week with -76ptsNifty Stance: Neutral
Nifty is continuing to trade in a range, as we only fell 76pts (-0.31%) this week, forming a doji candle on the weekly chart. The interesting thing is that Nifty has formed four consecutive red candles on the weekly chart, but we have only fallen 208 points, indicating a clear lack of directional trend.
On Monday, we closed briefly below the support level of 24192. On Tuesday, we rallied to the resistance level of 24335, and by Thursday, we were back to 24192. On Friday, we initially fell, hitting a weekly low of 24076, but we managed to close at 24175, well above the psychological support at 24000.
We continue to remain neutral and expect Nifty to go range-bound only if it breaks the 24000 level on the downside and the 24600 level on the upside. Till then, we will continue to look out for non-directional trades.
Important Things to Watch for the Next Week
Data points to watch from a domestic perspective: GDP, Fiscal Deficit, FX Reserves, GST Collections, Money Supply.
Data points to watch from a global perspective: US PMI, Crude Oil Inventories, Jobless Claims, and Eurozone CPI.
IPO Listing: Augmont Enterprises on 31st Aug, Madhur Knit Crafts, ABH Healthcare, Symbiotec Pharmalab, Skyways Air Services, Hy-Tech Engineers on 1st, Sumax Engineering, Annu Projects on 2nd Sep.
If Nifty goes up, the resistance levels to watch are 24192, 24335, and 24425. If Nifty falls, the support levels are 23925, 23793, and 23357.
DISCLAIMER
Investments in the securities market are subject to market risks, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Information provided is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Investors should read all related documents carefully and consult a certified advisor before investing. Registration granted by SEBI and Enlistment with RAASB/BSE and certification from NISM in no way guarantee performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors. The investor is requested to take into consideration all the risk factors before actually trading in stocks or derivatives. The SEBI RIA license INA000021757 & RA license INH000025045 are for Balachandran RV 
Long
NIFTY : Trend line support Holds|Key Levels to Watch NIFTY 50 – Technical Analysis | Key Levels & Trendline Setup
Market View: Neutral with a Positive Bias Above Key Resistance
NIFTY 50 is currently trading near an important support zone after witnessing a period of consolidation and correction. The rising trendline on the daily chart remains a key reference point for the medium-term structure.
Key Technical Levels
Immediate Support: 24000–23900
Key Resistance: 24250–24300
Major Resistance: 24,600–24,650
Trendline: Important support for the current structure
Bullish Scenario:
A decisive breakout and sustained close above 24250–24300 could strengthen the bullish momentum.
If NIFTY sustains above this zone, the next important resistance area to watch is 24,600–24,650.
Bearish Scenario:
A decisive breakdown below the 23400–23500 support zone, particularly with sustained price action below the rising trendline, could more weaken the current structure and open the possibility of further downside.
Technical Observations
NIFTY is approaching a crucial decision zone.
The rising trendline remains an important technical reference.
24250–24300 is the key level for a potential bullish breakout.
24,600–24,650 is the next major resistance zone.
A breakdown below 23900–24000 would weaken the bullish setup.
Confirmation through price action is important before taking any directional view.
Overall View
Neutral → Bullish above 24300
For now, I would prefer to wait for a confirmed breakout or breakdown rather than anticipate the next move.
Disclaimer: This post is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Please consider your risk profile and conduct your own due diligence before making any investment or trading decision.
Three Faces of Consolidation: How the Same Rally have 3 FacesThis post is educational and observational in nature based on historical price action. It is not a forecast or a trading recommendation.
Setup: The Bullish Rally
This chart begins with a strong bullish rally, the foundation from which three separate consolidation structures went on to form at different points along the stock's journey.
Pattern One: The Triangle
Following the initial rally, price consolidated into a triangle pattern, converging highs and lows compressing into a tighter range as the market paused to absorb the prior move.
Pattern Two: Inverse Head and Shoulders on a Slanted Trendline
After another rally, price formed an inverse head and shoulders pattern, a reversal structure built from a low, a deeper low, and a higher low. What makes this instance distinct is that its neckline was not a flat horizontal breakout level, but a slanted counter trendline instead, with a symmetrical triangle also forming along this same slanted structure. This combination shows how a reversal pattern can develop against an angled reference line rather than the more commonly seen horizontal one.
Pattern Three: The Parallel Channel
Following the next rally, price settled into a parallel channel, contained between two consistent, roughly equidistant boundaries, reflecting a more evenly structured consolidation phase compared to the converging patterns seen earlier.
Long
Long
Long
