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Elliott Wave Principle : Understanding Flat
Can part of a corrective structure make an equal high or even a higher high than the impulse itself?
Sounds deceptive, right? Most people will think that the impulse is continuing. And this can be a perfect trap! But the answer is Yes, it can.
What is it? Let us learn today with a live example.
Under the Elliott Wave Principle, one of the three primary forms of corrective structure is a FLAT . A Flat is a 3-3-5 sequence, labelled A-B-C.
Wave A
Wave A develops as a 3-wave corrective sequence . This is where the first challenge arises.
A 5-wave movement can sometimes appear as a 3-wave movement at a larger degree. Therefore, it may not always be possible to distinguish a Flat from a Zigzag at the beginning of the correction. Wave B gives us the important clue .
Wave B
Wave B develops as a 3-wave counter sequence . Unlike a Zigzag, Wave B of a Flat retraces at least 90% of Wave A and can retrace 100% or even more of Wave A.
It is Wave B that creates the deception. It can travel back to the previous high — or even make a new high — giving the impression that the impulse is continuing.
Key learning:
If Wave B retraces less than 90% of Wave A, it is more likely that the structure is developing as a Zigzag rather than a Flat.
Wave C
Wave C develops as a 5-wave corrective sequence .
In a regular or expanded Flat, Wave C normally travels at least 100% of the length of Wave A .
There are three types of Flats:
Regular Flat
Expanded Flat
Running Flat
We will understand each of them through live examples as we encounter them.
Let us understand this with Lupin. Lupin completed Wave 3, an extended wave, on 7 May, achieving more than 1.618× the length of Wave 1 of the current impulse. Sub-wave (v) of Wave 3 ended at approximately 61.8% of Sub-wave (iii), as shown in the chart. The stock then started correcting.
Wave A completed as a 3-wave corrective sequence on 13 May.
Wave B completed as a 3-wave counter sequence on 16 July, retracing more than 100% of Wave A.
Notice what happened.
Wave B crossed the previous Wave 3 high.
To an analyst looking only at price movement, this could easily appear to be the continuation of the impulse.
But structurally, it was Wave B of a Flat.
Wave C then developed as a 5-wave corrective sequence, with Sub-wave (iii) itself developing as an extended wave.
Wave C has now achieved more than 100% of the length of Wave A.
If the Wave C structure is complete, the next impulse, Wave 5, should commence.
Key Learning
A Flat generally produces a shallower correction than a Zigzag and is often seen when the larger trend remains strong.
That is precisely why the Wave B rally can be deceptive. A new high does not always mean that the impulse is continuing.
Sometimes, it is only Wave B of a correction. Don't be deceived!!!
Educational purpose only. This is not a buy or sell recommendation.
Education
THE GOLD GAME PLAN JUST LEAKED — NEXT 3–4 WEEKS REVEALED!August has already delivered around 15.5% upside momentum in Gold, and the way the monthly candle is building right now clearly shows that buyers have gained significant strength. The biggest question at this point is whether Gold will finally give a meaningful correction or continue moving higher from here. A lot of people are confused because after such a strong move, they naturally expect a big retracement. But the market does not always give the move everyone is waiting for. That is why, for the next 3–4 weeks, understanding the price structure and liquidity will be much more important than simply predicting a top.
If you look back at my previous August analysis, I was already expecting upside momentum during August. At that time, my expectation was around 4200–4300, followed by a possible strong reversal that could potentially bring Gold back below 4000, with 3900–3800 as possible downside targets. But the market did something that completely changed the scenario. The important internal lower-high structure on the daily timeframe was broken with strong momentum. Once that structure broke, a huge amount of sellers' stop-loss liquidity was taken, and the volume that entered the market afterwards was strong enough to attract fresh buyers. This is where the entire character of the market started changing.
Now, if you look at the overall yearly structure, you can see that Gold has created multiple lower highs throughout the year. LH1, LH2, LH3 and LH4 — and what is interesting is that the market now appears to be moving upward to attack these previous lower highs one by one. We recently saw the breakout of LH4, and instead of giving an immediate reversal, the market consolidated for a while. Sellers started believing that the liquidity had already been taken and that a downside reversal was coming, but Gold once again continued higher. That behaviour is extremely important for what I am expecting in the coming weeks.
Because whenever you get strong continuation in a bullish trend, the market often does not give people the perfect retracement they are waiting for. Everyone keeps thinking, “It will come down a little more, and then I will buy at a better price.” But if the market keeps moving higher, those same people eventually start entering at much higher levels because of FOMO. In my view, something similar could happen over the next few weeks. A lot of traders may continue waiting for a deep correction that simply never comes.
Now, coming to the upcoming week, I am expecting the possibility of a major liquidation or temporary correction around Wednesday or Thursday. If Gold opens the week with strong upside momentum, early buyers will most likely enter aggressively. But once fresh sellers start entering around higher levels, we could see a sharp liquidation move. The 4500–4537 zone is therefore very important for me. If Gold comes into this area, I would not immediately consider it a trend reversal because in a strong bullish market, these types of pullbacks and liquidity sweeps are completely normal.
The most important level right now is 4452. For me, this is not just another support level; it has developed into an important institutional zone. As long as Gold continues to hold above 4452, my overall bias remains bullish. That does not mean the market will move straight up. We can still see consolidation, liquidity sweeps and sharp intraday corrections along the way. But as long as the major structure remains intact, I will continue to treat those pullbacks as part of the broader bullish trend.
After that, the next major level I am watching is 4591. If Gold breaks above 4591 with strength and then comes back to retest that level and successfully holds it as support, that would be a very important confirmation for me. In that scenario, swing traders could potentially start looking toward the 4800–4900 zone as the next major upside target. The 4591 breakout would not simply be another resistance breakout; it would indicate that Gold is entering a phase where the remaining higher-timeframe lower highs could start getting attacked aggressively.
So, my simple plan for now is: bullish above 4452, potential liquidation/correction around 4500–4537, and confirmation above 4591 for further continuation toward 4800–4900. Until 4452 breaks decisively, I would rather focus on buying opportunities than become unnecessarily bearish just because Gold has already moved a lot. However, if 4452 is decisively broken, then this entire bullish plan will need to be reassessed.
The bigger picture on the daily timeframe is simple: Gold is currently trying to reclaim the lower highs that were created throughout the year, one by one. That makes the next few weeks extremely interesting. Now the question is whether the market first comes down to collect liquidity before continuing higher, or whether it simply keeps running toward the next major level without giving traders the deep retracement they are waiting for.
So, this is my overall plan for the next 3–4 weeks. I hope you found it logical and easy to understand. This is based on the daily timeframe, and I’ll keep sharing fresh intraday plans every day, so stay alert and follow the key levels. Let me know your view on Gold for the coming weeks — I’d love to know what you’re expecting. Max Healthcare – Zigzag Correction Potentially Complete - BUYMax Healthcare was earlier used as an example of a Wave 1 Extension variation in our educational post dated 7 August 2026. Since then, the stock has undergone a Zigzag correction, the structure of which was explained in our educational post dated 15 August 2026.
A Zigzag is a 5-3-5 corrective structure , labelled A-B-C, where Waves A and C develop as 5-wave structures and Wave B as a 3-wave corrective structure. Zigzags generally produce relatively deep corrections.
Current wave structure
Wave A – A simple 5-wave sequence, completed on 24 July.
Wave B – A simple 3-wave corrective sequence, completed on 30 July.
Wave C – A larger 5-wave sequence, with its own internal subdivisions.
It is highly likely that Wave 5 of C has completed around the 1.414 extension of Wave 1, coinciding with the strong support zone around the Wave 3 area.
A few observations strengthen the possibility of completion:
Wave C has formed a lower low than Wave A, as required for a Zigzag.
The overall correction has retraced more than 61.8% of the preceding impulse.
Wave 5 of C has reached an important 1.414 Fibonacci extension level.
The completion has occurred near an established price-support zone.
If the correction is indeed complete, the stock could resume its larger-degree uptrend. One may consider going long above the current levels, with a stop loss at ₹963, below the 1.618 TBFE level.
This analysis is based on the wave structure visible at present; confirmation of the reversal remains important. 
Long
HDFC Bank – Potential Completion of Wave C / Wave Y | BUYIn my educational post dated 22 July 2026, I explained the WXY Combination pattern using HDFC Bank as an example. At that time, Wave W had completed as a Zigzag, while Wave Y was developing as a Flat correction, with Wave C still in progress.
What has happened since?
As conveyed in the earlier post, Wave C has to form as a 5-wave structure and must move below the low of the preceding Wave C of the Zigzag (₹726.65 on 2 April 2026). The recent price action as follows .
Made a lower low at ₹722
Potential completion of Wave 5 at approximately 38.2% of Wave 3
Formed a potential reversal candle pattern
Developed a bullish RSI divergence
Importantly, there are no wave extensions within Wave C, which adds further support to the possibility that the corrective structure may have reached completion.
If the overall Wave Y correction is indeed complete, HDFC Bank could be entering a new upward phase. A confirmed reversal in HDFC Bank could also provide a positive signal for the broader market, including Nifty.
Trade Setup
One may consider going long at current levels with a stop loss at ₹710, below the 50% Trend-Based Fibonacci Extension (TBFE) level.
As always, the wave count remains subject to confirmation through subsequent price action. Kindly note that the possibility of stock forming Wave Z cannot be ruled out. ("Triple Threes").
This is a follow-up to the educational post on WXY Combination published on 22 July 2026. 
Long
Gold Weekly: The Bigger Elliott Wave Picture
Gold’s bull run began in November 2015. The first red Wave 1 developed as five minor black waves, with Wave 3 reaching 1.618 times Wave 1 and Wave 5 meeting its projected target.
This was followed by a large flat correction forming red Wave 2, taking nearly two years. Importantly, Wave 2 retraced only 38.6%, suggesting that Wave 4 should normally be deeper and quicker.
Red Wave 3 then began in October 2022 and has developed into five waves. The key difficulty is determining whether red Wave 3 has actually ended. It has currently reached the 1.618 extension of red Wave 1, which is a normal target for a third wave. However, the subsequent retracement is only 23.6%—rather shallow for Wave 4.
There are reasons to suspect that red Wave 3 may still be extending. When Wave 2 is shallow, Wave 3 often extends, and Wave 3 of Wave 3 itself appears extended. A third wave can develop into 5, 9 or even 13 waves, so declaring the final top now would be premature.
**Two scenarios:**
If red Wave 3 and Wave 4 are indeed complete, the next upside target is **4,880–4,900**, corresponding to the B-wave area.
But if Gold takes out the recent red Wave 3 high, the larger bullish scenario opens the possibility of **6,400+**.
The structure will decide which scenario plays out. For now, the weekly chart remains structurally bullish, but the exact termination of Wave 3 needs confirmation.
#Gold #GoldPrice #ElliottWave #TechnicalAnalysis #GoldAnalysis #TradingView
XAUUSD – Weekly Recap: Gold Breaks The Downtrend, But 4,673 Is XAUUSD – Weekly Recap: Gold Breaks The Downtrend, But 4,673 Is The Next Test
Gold closed the week with a very strong recovery structure.
After several weeks of pressure, price finally broke above the major downtrend line and moved into a cleaner bullish phase. The current price is around 4,602, showing that buyers are still holding control after the breakout.
But this is not a place to chase blindly. Gold is now approaching an important Fibonacci sell zone around 4,673, where the next strong reaction may appear.
WEEKLY TREND SUMMARY
This week, gold shifted from recovery mode into stronger bullish continuation.
Earlier in the week, buyers defended the lower support structure and kept building higher lows. The key breakout came when price moved above the old downtrend line, showing that sellers were losing control of the broader corrective structure.
After the breakout, gold continued to hold above the Buy Order Retest Trendline zone around 4,370 and pushed strongly toward the 4,500 – 4,600 area.
The weekly message is clear: gold is no longer weak in the short term. Buyers have momentum, but the next resistance zone is now very important.
FUNDAMENTAL VIEW
Gold remains supported by safe-haven demand, central bank buying, and the broader market focus on Fed policy, U.S. yields, and inflation risk.
When the market expects softer Fed pressure or weaker real yields, gold usually benefits because the opportunity cost of holding gold becomes lower.
However, after a strong bullish move, profit-taking can appear near major Fibonacci and liquidity zones. That is why the 4,673 and 4,852 areas should be watched carefully next week.
TECHNICAL VIEW – SMC + FIBONACCI
From an SMC perspective, gold has created a clear bullish displacement after breaking the descending trendline.
The old bearish structure has been weakened, and price is now trading above the main breakout area. The first important support is the Buy Order Liquidity zone around 4,500 – 4,530. If gold pulls back and holds this zone, buyers may continue to build pressure toward 4,673.
Below that, the deeper support is the Buy Order Retest Trendline zone around 4,370. This is the key structural level. As long as gold remains above this area, the broader recovery structure stays valid.
The next upside resistance is the Sell Fibonacci zone around 4,673. If price reaches this level and rejects, a short-term pullback may appear. But if buyers break and hold above 4,673, the next larger liquidity target is around 4,852.
KEY PRICE ZONES
Current price: 4,602
Buy Order Liquidity: 4,500 – 4,530
Buy Order Retest Trendline: 4,370
Sell Fibonacci zone: 4,673
Major liquidity target: 4,852
Bullish structure valid: Above 4,370
Short-term bullish confirmation: Above 4,673
Invalidation for bullish continuation: Below 4,370
TRADING SCENARIOS
Buy Scenario – Continuation View
Buy Zone: 4,500 – 4,530
Entry: Bullish reaction, liquidity sweep, lower-timeframe CHoCH, or strong rejection from the buy zone
SL: Below 4,500 or below the nearest swing low
TP1: 4,673
TP2: 4,852
Deeper Buy Scenario
Buy Zone: 4,370
Entry: Wait for clear bullish reaction from the trendline retest zone
SL: Below 4,370
TP1: 4,500
TP2: 4,673
TP3: 4,852
Sell Scenario – Reaction From Resistance
Sell Zone: 4,673
Entry: Bearish rejection, failed breakout, or lower-timeframe bearish CHoCH
SL: Above the rejection swing high
TP1: 4,530
TP2: 4,500
Breakout Buy Scenario
Condition: Clean break and hold above 4,673
Target: 4,852
MY VIEW
Gold had a strong bullish week.
The breakout above the downtrend line is the most important signal on this chart. It shows that buyers are no longer only defending support — they are trying to take control of the larger structure.
However, the market is now moving close to a strong Fibonacci resistance area around 4,673. I do not want to chase price directly into resistance.
The cleaner plan is to wait for a pullback into 4,500 – 4,530, or wait for a confirmed breakout above 4,673.
If gold holds above 4,500, the recovery toward 4,673 remains valid.
If gold breaks above 4,673, the next larger target becomes 4,852.
If gold loses 4,370, the bullish structure becomes weaker.
For now, gold is bullish — but next week’s key question is whether buyers can break the 4,673 Fibonacci zone.
Do you think gold will continue toward 4,852, or will sellers defend 4,673 first?
Long
XAUUSD: ABC Correction Following Wave 5Gold has reached the upper Elliott wave 5 area after a strong bullish recovery. From Kelly’s view, the main trend is still strong, but price may need an ABC correction before the next clean bullish setup appears.
⟡ Market structure
The chart shows gold pushed sharply from the lower base and is now reacting near 4,600.
This area is close to the End wave 5 zone around 4,640–4,670, so short-term hesitation or rejection is normal.
If gold cannot break higher directly, price may start an ABC correction. The first support to watch is the Buy zone around 4,380–4,410. A deeper correction may bring price towards the End wave C / Buy zone around 4,200–4,230.
➤ Key levels
◌ 4,600: current reaction area
◌ 4,640–4,670: End wave 5 / resistance zone
◌ 4,500: first support checkpoint
◌ 4,380–4,410: main buy zone
◌ 4,200–4,230: End wave C / deeper buy zone
◌ Above 4,670: bullish extension zone
⌁ Elliott Wave view
Gold may have completed or is close to completing wave 5.
After wave 5, the market usually needs an ABC correction:
Wave A: first pullback from the high
Wave B: rebound from support
Wave C: deeper correction into the main buy zone
If wave C ends around 4,200–4,230 and buyers defend it, gold may prepare for the next bullish recovery.
▸ Trading scenario
Preferred scenario: wait for gold to complete the ABC correction before buying.
Sell reaction zone: 4,640–4,670 if rejection appears
Take profit 1: 4,500
Take profit 2: 4,380–4,410
Buy zone 1: 4,380–4,410 if bullish confirmation appears
Buy zone 2: 4,200–4,230 if wave C extends deeper
Stop loss: below the confirmed wave C low
Take profit 1: 4,500
Take profit 2: 4,600
Take profit 3: 4,640–4,670
◌ Invalidation
If gold breaks above 4,670 and holds strongly, the ABC correction may be delayed and wave 5 can extend higher.
⌁ Kelly’s view
For Kelly, gold is still in a bullish macro structure, but the current area is not ideal for chasing buys.
The cleaner plan is to wait for the ABC correction.
If the buy zone holds, gold may build the next bullish structure again.
Share your view below. Short 
XAUUSD: 4,600 Holds, 4,680 Is Waiting XAUUSD: 4,600 Holds, 4,680 Is Waiting
Market Context
Gold finishes the week with a strong bullish structure after buyers successfully defended every important pullback during the week. The market started with hesitation around 4,400, then buyers reclaimed structure, pushed above 4,450, broke through 4,570, and finally reached the 4,600 area.
The weekly story is clear: gold is no longer just recovering — buyers are now controlling the trend.
However, price is currently sitting near a high liquidity area, so this is not the best place to chase. The next move depends on whether buyers can keep gold above 4,600 - 4,605 or whether price needs one deeper pullback first.
Key point: gold remains bullish, but 4,600 is now the level that decides continuation.
Weekly Recap
Early week: Gold held above 4,370 - 4,400 and buyers defended the recovery structure.
Midweek: Price reclaimed 4,416 and 4,450, confirming stronger bullish momentum.
Late week: Gold broke above 4,540 - 4,570 and attacked the buy-side liquidity area around 4,600.
Current view: The structure remains bullish, but price is close to resistance and may need a clean retest before continuing higher.
Technical Structure
Gold is trading around 4,602 after breaking above the previous buy-side liquidity zone. The chart shows a strong bullish impulse supported by BOS signals and a clear upward trendline.
The current decisive level is 4,600 - 4,605. Staying above this zone confirms that buyers are still holding control.
The nearest resistance is 4,631 - 4,650. This is a high weakness / buying liquidity area where short-term rejection can appear. If buyers break this zone with strength, gold may continue toward the stronger resistance at 4,680 - 4,715.
Below current price, 4,540 - 4,560 is the nearest buy zone. If gold pulls back into this area and reacts well, it can become a strong continuation entry.
The deeper support is 4,490 - 4,520. This is the main support buyers must defend if the market creates a larger correction.
Key Levels
Current Price: 4,602
Decisive Level: 4,600 - 4,605
Nearest Resistance: 4,631 - 4,650
Strong Resistance / OB Zone: 4,680 - 4,715
Near Buy Zone: 4,540 - 4,560
Main Support Zone: 4,490 - 4,520
Sell-side Liquidity: 4,310
Bullish Continuation: Above 4,650
Correction Risk: Below 4,540
Trading Plan
Buy Continuation
Entry: Above 4,650 after breakout and retest
SL: Below 4,600
TP: 4,680 / 4,700 / 4,715
Condition: Price must break 4,631 - 4,650 with strong bullish momentum, retest successfully, and hold above the breakout area. This confirms buyers are ready for the next extension.
Buy Pullback
Entry: 4,540 - 4,560 after bullish confirmation
SL: Below 4,520
TP: 4,600 / 4,631 / 4,650
Condition: Price pulls back into the near buy zone and shows clear bullish rejection. Buyers need to defend this area to keep the weekly bullish structure clean.
Main Buy Re-entry
Entry: 4,490 - 4,520
SL: Below 4,450
TP: 4,560 / 4,600 / 4,650
Condition: If gold corrects deeper, this is the main support zone to watch. A strong reaction here would suggest the trend is still healthy, not reversing.
Sell Reaction
Entry: 4,680 - 4,715 after bearish rejection
SL: Above 4,740
TP: 4,650 / 4,600 / 4,560
Condition: Price reaches the strong resistance / OB zone and fails to continue higher. This is only a reaction sell, not the main bias unless gold later breaks below 4,540.
Breakdown Sell
Entry: Below 4,540 after breakdown and retest
SL: Above 4,600
TP: 4,520 / 4,490 / 4,450
Condition: Price loses the near buy zone, retest fails, and bearish momentum expands. This would confirm that the bullish impulse is entering a deeper correction phase.
Overall Bias
Gold remains bullish while price holds above 4,540 - 4,560. The weekly structure is strong, and buyers have controlled the market after breaking multiple resistance levels.
If 4,600 - 4,605 holds, gold can continue toward 4,631 - 4,650. A clean break above 4,650 opens the path toward 4,680 - 4,715.
If 4,540 fails, gold may need a deeper correction into 4,490 - 4,520 before buyers try again.
Best approach: follow the bullish structure, but do not chase price directly into liquidity. Wait for either a breakout above 4,650 or a pullback into 4,540 - 4,560.
Will buyers defend 4,600 and push gold toward 4,715, or will the market need one deeper retest first?
Short 
Dixon Technologies – Short-Term Trading PlanDixon Technologies – CMP: ₹13,651 | Timeframe: Weekly (Execution: Daily)
📌 Trading Strategy
✅ Existing Long Positions
Continue to hold while price remains above ₹13,000 .
Trail stop-loss higher as the stock advances.
✅ Fresh Entry
Prefer buying:
On a pullback towards ₹13,200–13,300, or
On a decisive breakout above ₹14,000 with strong volumes.
🎯 Targets
Target 1: ₹14,800
Target 2: ₹16,300
Target 3: ₹18,500 (only if momentum remains strong)
🛑 Stop Loss
Closing below ₹12,800 would weaken the short-term bullish structure.
A break below ₹12,200 would invalidate the current impulsive wave count and increase the probability of a larger correction.
Trading Bias: BUY ON DIPS
📌 Thanks a ton for checking out my idea! Hope it sparked some value for you.
🙏 Follow for more insights
👍 Boost if you found it helpful
✍️ Drop a comment with your thoughts below!
Long
Long
Education 
GAP FILL - BEST WAYS TO MAKE PROFITMany traders see a gap and immediately expect price to come back and fill it. That assumption is one of the easiest ways to trade a gap in the wrong direction.
A gap is simply an area where price moves so quickly that little or no trading takes place between two price zones. What happens next depends much more on where the gap appears and what the market was doing before it formed.
1. Gaps inside a range are more likely to lose momentum
When a gap forms inside a market that has been moving sideways, there is often no strong structural shift behind the move.
If price cannot hold above the gap and quickly returns into the previous range, the probability of a gap fill increases.
The important clue is not the empty space itself.
It is the market’s inability to build acceptance above it.
2. A breakout gap can behave very differently
Now imagine price has spent hours or days consolidating below resistance.
Then strong momentum suddenly pushes price through that level and leaves a gap behind.
This gap may represent aggressive repricing, not an inefficiency that must immediately be filled.
If price holds above the breakout area and continues forming higher highs and higher lows, betting on a full gap fill can mean trading directly against momentum.
This is where many traders get trapped.
3. Ask what created the gap
Before taking a trade, check the context:
Did the gap break an important support or resistance?
Did it appear after a long consolidation?
Was volume significantly higher?
Is the broader structure bullish or bearish?
Is price accepting above/below the gap?
Did news or a major session open cause the move?
The stronger the reason behind the repricing, the less useful the simple idea of “every gap must fill” becomes.
4. Treat the gap as a zone, not a signal
A gap alone is not an entry.
Instead, watch how price behaves around it.
If price returns into the gap and repeatedly fails to recover, a deeper fill becomes more likely.
If price only retests the edge of the gap and strong buyers or sellers immediately return, the gap may act as support or resistance for continuation.
That reaction is often more valuable than predicting the fill beforehand.
A simple framework
Range + weak follow-through → Gap fill becomes more likely.
Breakout + strong momentum + structure confirmation → Continuation becomes more likely.
The lesson is simple:
Don’t trade the gap. Trade the context around the gap.
The same gap can create two completely different outcomes depending on where it forms. Education 
XAU/USD - Breakout Confirmed, Bulls Target HigherHi Traders, Would y'all chase XAUUSD here or wait for the breakout retest?
OANDA:XAUUSD has pushed decisively above the 4,430–4,470 resistance zone and continues to trade above the Ichimoku Cloud. For now, the H1 structure still favors buyers, with the former resistance area becoming the next key support.
Rather than buying after another strong candle, I’m watching 4,430–4,470 for a controlled pullback. If buyers defend this zone and momentum returns, I still favor continuation toward:
🎯 Target: 4,600
The macro backdrop also supports the bullish case. Gold is heading toward a third consecutive weekly gain, helped by a weaker US Dollar and Treasury efforts to contain long-term yields. The Dollar has fallen toward a three-month low, encouraging demand for alternative assets such as Gold and Bitcoin.
The main risk is that bond yields remain elevated and Fed officials are still cautious about persistent inflation, so I wouldn’t expect the move to stay perfectly one-directional.
A sustained H1 move back below 4,430 would weaken the breakout and make me reassess the continuation setup.
AURICVERSE View: buyers have already cleared the important barrier. Now the real test is whether 4,430–4,470 can hold as support. If it does, 4,600 remains the next level on my radar.
How are you reading this structure? Share your view below. Long 
BTC Wealth Update: One Treasury Move Just Erased a Month of Loss
Bias: Sharp bounce within a still-unresolved correction, not a confirmed reversal yet. Key driver: Treasury bond buyback signals from Bessent triggered a short squeeze, not a crypto-specific catalyst.
The Setup
Big update since last time. Price has ripped from around 65k back up to roughly 77.9k right now, most of that in the last three or four days alone, up about 20% since Monday. This wasn't a crypto story at all. Treasury Secretary Bessent suggested more intervention buying back longer dated bonds, long end yields dropped hard, and that was enough to trigger a genuine short squeeze once bitcoin broke back above 70k and then 72k, forcing short sellers to cover into a market that was already thin on the way up. ETF flows followed, pulling in the biggest weekly inflows in months. Bitcoin's actually on pace for its first positive August since 2021, which given how ugly this year has been for the coin is worth sitting with for a second.
🔍 Technical Read
Structure: this bounce started from the 62,500 to 65,000 zone that had held as support for weeks, and price has already reclaimed the 72,700 level referenced in my last update.
Current position: around 77.9k, after tapping close to 79,300 intraday, a genuine break of the tight range this had been stuck in since late May.
The chart's own projection: still shows an eventual leg down toward the 40k area after this bounce runs its course, meaning the base case cycle thesis hasn't changed here, this move is being read as a strong bounce inside the correction rather than the start of the next leg up.
What would actually change that read: a clean hold above 80k, and eventually reclaiming the 100k handle, would be the first real technical evidence this correction is over rather than just interrupted.
Support if this fades: 72,700 first, then the 62,500 to 65,000 zone this whole move started from.
📰 Fundamental Backdrop
The actual driver had nothing to do with bitcoin specifically. Bessent signaling more Treasury buybacks at the long end of the curve dropped yields fast, and risk assets across the board caught a bid.
That yield move is already partly reversing. The 30 year and 10 year have clawed back a good chunk of the drop, which is the kind of thing that can take the wind out of a squeeze driven rally just as fast as it built.
Short covering did real work here. Bitcoin breaking back above 70k and then 72k forced traders betting on lower prices to buy back their positions, a mechanical tailwind on top of the actual macro news, and one that fades once most of the shorts are already out.
ETF flows turned genuinely positive, pulling in the biggest weekly inflows in months alongside a smaller but real pickup in ether inflows too, so this isn't purely a derivatives market phenomenon.
None of the structural cycle case changed underneath this. Central bank buying and the broader diversification trend are unaffected by a three day short squeeze, whichever direction it runs.
🎯 Levels That Matter
Recent intraday high: 79,300
Current zone: 77,000 to 78,000
Reclaimed reference: 72,700
Prior support, first line if this fades: 62,500 to 65,000
Buy zone, thesis target if the bigger correction resumes: 28,000 to 33,500
🔀 Scenario Watch
Squeeze fades, correction resumes, bearish: yields finish clawing back their drop, ETF flows cool off again, and price rolls back toward 72,700 and then the 62,500 to 65,000 zone, keeping the original cycle thesis and its eventual 28k to 33.5k target intact.
Bounce holds, range extends higher, neutral to bullish: bitcoin consolidates in a new, higher range above 70k instead of fully round tripping, suggesting the correction is maturing even if it's not confirmed over.
Genuine trend change, bullish: sustained Treasury intervention actually brings yields down in a lasting way, ETF inflows keep building, and bitcoin holds above 80k and then 100k. This is the scenario that would force an actual rewrite of the cycle thesis rather than just a pause in it.
💭 My Take
This is a real move, not noise, but it's also a real move built on a policy signal and a short squeeze rather than a change in the underlying cycle picture. The chart's own projection still expects a leg down after this, and I'm not throwing that out just because of three strong days. What I'd actually watch is whether yields keep falling or snap back, since that tells you whether this was a one time liquidity event or the start of something that actually holds. First green August since 2021 is a genuinely good sign either way, I just wouldn't confuse a good week with a resolved thesis.
Not financial advice, just posted for discussion and education. Short squeezes can run further than expected before they reverse, so don't fight the tape but don't assume it's permanent either. Short 
Long 
Long 
Education
Education
