ONGC (4H): Tracking the ABC Wave Structure and Key LevelsSince peaking near 307.50, ONGC has been moving through a clear downward correction. On the 4-hour chart, this price action tracks a classic ABC Corrective Pattern .
Here is a quick look at where the stock stands within this structure and the key levels to watch next.
The Wave Count
The current downward structure breaks down into three distinct phases:
Waves A & B: The initial drop found a floor at 277.65, followed by a temporary bounce back up to 304.95.
Wave C: We are now in the final leg of the decline. This leg is dividing into 5 smaller steps (labeled i to v). The price is currently sitting in the final step, Wave (v) , which typically completes the entire pattern.
Support and Momentum
The price is currently trading around 259.70 , sitting just above a long-term Major Support level at 258.50 .
At the same time, the RSI (Relative Strength Index) has dropped to 26.83, indicating deeply oversold conditions. When a stock hits major structural support while momentum is this stretched, selling pressure often slows down, creating room for a potential bounce.
The Invalidation Level
The critical line in the sand for this entire setup is 256.65 (the 1.618 Fibonacci level).
The Bullish View: As long as the price stays above 256.65 , the structural pattern holds, and the expectation of a corrective bounce remains intact.
The Bearish View: A decisive close below 256.65 completely invalidates this Elliott Wave count. It would signal that the downward momentum is stronger than expected and that the correction is extending deeper.
Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. I am not a SEBI-registered analyst. Please do your own research and manage your risk carefully.
Wave Analysis
Gold drops to support - CPI impact or geopolitical issues.The Gold market (XAUUSD) enters a highly volatile Wednesday session as market participants brace for the high-stakes US May CPI data. Market forecasts point toward a headline CPI surge to 4.2% year-on-year—crossing the 4% threshold for the first time since 2023—driven by soaring energy prices, sticky service costs, and tariff impacts. Bond traders are aggressively pricing in a "hawkish Fed," with interest rate futures now reflecting odds of a 25-basis-point hike as early as September, eliminating any hopes for rate cuts this year.
However, a fierce tug-of-war is underway. While the prospect of higher-for-longer Fed rates exerts heavy pressure on non-yielding bullion, the sudden escalation of geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran is providing strong structural safe-haven demand underneath. A lower-than-expected CPI print could instantly crush these hawkish bets, causing a violent short-squeeze.
Based on the Bearish Impulse Elliott Wave structure monitored on the H1 timeframe, the core structural levels include:
Major Resistance: 4,252.855 – This area acts as the primary overhead Confluence Zone, aligning with the 0.5 - 0.618 Fibonacci Retracement cluster. This is the key structural checkpoint where sellers are expected to re-defend the trend.
Current Price Area: Trading near the ~4,177.950 handle.
Interim Support: 4,108.786 – The Fibonacci Extension 1.272 layer, which serves as a potential bounce zone for a short-term relief rally.
Major Liquidity Target: 4,037.146 – The ultimate target for the impulsive Wave (5), perfectly aligned with the Fibonacci Extension 1.618 level.
What's your stance on this high-stakes H1 setup? Will the geopolitical shield protect Gold from a hawkish CPI print, or are we sliding straight to 4,037? Share your ideas and charts below!
XAUUSD: ABC Recovery Relies on CPI ConfirmationGold is trading near the lower buy zone after completing a strong bearish wave 5 move into the 4,180 area. From Kelly’s view, the chart is trying to build an intraday recovery structure, but today’s CPI release can decide whether the ABC rebound has enough strength to continue.
The main idea is simple: gold may start an ABC recovery from the buy zone, but confirmation matters more than guessing before the data.
⟡ Market structure
The broader short-term structure is still bearish after price broke sharply below previous support and completed a wave 5 decline. However, the reaction around 4,180 shows that sellers may be losing momentum near the lower exhaustion zone.
Gold is now attempting to stabilize above the buy zone. If buyers can hold this area and push price back above 4,209–4,237, the market may begin forming an ABC correction towards the stronger resistance area.
The key zone above is 4,237, where the broken trendline and support area may act as the first recovery checkpoint.
➤ Key levels
◌ 4,180: wave 5 completion area and buy zone
◌ 4,209: current reaction level
◌ 4,237: sell trendline and support retest
◌ 4,313: strong support turned recovery resistance
◌ 4,350–4,360: fake breakout / higher resistance zone
⌁ Elliott Wave view
From an Elliott Wave perspective, gold appears to have completed a bearish 5-wave sequence into the lower buy zone. If this count is correct, the next move may develop as an ABC corrective recovery.
A wave could push price back towards 4,237.
B wave may create a pullback after the first recovery.
C wave could extend towards 4,313 if buyers remain active.
If price fails to hold 4,180 and breaks lower with strength, the wave 5 completion idea loses quality and the market may need a new base before any recovery can develop.
▸ CPI focus
Today’s CPI data is important because it can directly affect the US Dollar and Treasury yields.
If CPI comes in hotter than expected, USD strength may return and gold could struggle to hold the recovery structure.
If CPI comes in softer, gold may receive short-term support and the ABC recovery scenario could gain more quality.
For Kelly, the chart structure gives the map, but CPI can provide the momentum.
▸ Trading scenario
Preferred scenario: wait for price to hold the 4,180 buy zone and confirm recovery above 4,209–4,237.
Entry zone: after bullish confirmation above 4,209–4,237
Stop loss: below 4,180 or below the confirmed reaction low
Take profit 1: 4,237
Take profit 2: 4,313
Take profit 3: 4,350–4,360 if CPI supports the rebound
Alternative scenario: if gold breaks below 4,180 with strong bearish pressure, the ABC recovery setup weakens and the market may continue searching for a lower base.
⌁ Kelly’s view
For Kelly, this is a buy-after-confirmation setup, not a blind buy from the low. The wave 5 decline may be close to completion, but CPI can create sharp volatility, so confirmation is essential.
If gold holds the buy zone and reclaims 4,237, the ABC recovery can begin with better structure.
Gold is trying to recover from wave 5 exhaustion.
But today, CPI will decide whether buyers can turn that reaction into a real corrective rebound.
Share your view below.
XAUUSD — Bearish Trend ContinuesXAUUSD — Bearish Trend Continues, Sell Setup Remains Priority
Gold is trading around $4,214 after a strong bearish displacement and multiple MSS confirmations to the downside. Price is still moving inside a clear descending channel, so the main intraday bias remains bearish.
From an SMC perspective, gold has broken below previous structure and is now reacting around short-term liquidity near $4,190–$4,210. This reaction can create a minor pullback, but as long as price stays below the sell zone around $4,260–$4,275, the bearish structure remains valid.
The key idea for today is not to chase the low. The better Prime Gold setup is to wait for price to pull back into liquidity or the OB sell zone, then look for bearish confirmation before entering.
Sell setup 1
Condition:
Gold pulls back into the short-term liquidity zone around $4,220–$4,235 and shows rejection with lower-timeframe MSS / CHOCH.
Entry: $4,229–$4,232
SL: above $4,250
TP1: $4,190
TP2: $4,160
TP3: $4,110
Sell setup 2
Condition:
Gold makes a deeper pullback into the main OB sell zone around $4,260–$4,275 and rejects strongly.
Entry: $4,260–$4,275
SL: above $4,295
TP1: $4,220
TP2: $4,180
TP3: $4,110
Buy setup
Condition:
A buy setup is only considered if gold sweeps the lower channel liquidity around $4,100–$4,110 and prints a clear bullish MSS / CHOCH. This is only a reaction setup, not the main trend.
Entry: $4,100–$4,110 after sweep confirmation
SL: below $4,080
TP1: $4,160
TP2: $4,190
TP3: $4,220
Key levels
Current price area: $4,214
Short-term sell reaction: $4,220–$4,235
Main OB sell zone: $4,260–$4,275
FVG resistance: $4,300–$4,325
Buy-side liquidity: $4,363
Downside target: $4,160, then $4,110
Bearish invalidation: clean 1H close above $4,295
My current view is bearish intraday while gold stays below $4,260–$4,275. The priority is to sell pullbacks into liquidity or OB zones, not to chase price after a strong drop.
No confirmation, no trade.
XAUUSD H1: Bearish Trend Still in Control Fundamental Analysis
Gold is trading under pressure in today’s session as the market continues to respect the short-term bearish structure. USD strength and cautious market sentiment are still limiting gold’s recovery attempts. At this stage, any upside movement should be treated carefully, as the intraday trend remains bearish unless price can reclaim key resistance levels with strength.
Technical Analysis
On the H1 timeframe, gold remains in a clear bearish structure after several BOS and CHOCH signals. Price continues to form lower highs and lower lows, showing that sellers are still controlling the main direction.
The recent sharp drop pushed price into the lower trendline area near 4,170 - 4,150. This zone may create a short-term reaction or scalping bounce, but it is not enough to confirm a complete bullish reversal yet.
The nearest important reaction area is around 4,236, where the chart marks an FVG and sell-side reaction zone. If price pulls back into this area and shows rejection, sellers may look for continuation in line with the main trend.
Key Price Zones
Current price: 4,173
Short-term reaction area: 4,150 - 4,170
Buy scalping area: Around 4,125 - 4,150
FVG / reaction zone: 4,236
Main sell zone: 4,334 - 4,343
Higher liquidity zone: 4,475 - 4,480
Bearish invalidation: Above 4,343
Trading Plan
Primary Scenario: Sell After Pullback
Entry: 4,230 - 4,236 after bearish confirmation
Stop Loss: 4,255
Take Profit 1: 4,180
Take Profit 2: 4,150
Take Profit 3: 4,125
Entry Conditions
Price should pull back into the 4,230 - 4,236 FVG zone. Bearish rejection should appear on the H1 or lower timeframe. Price should fail to hold above 4,236. Market structure should continue forming lower highs. Avoid selling directly at the low without a pullback.
Alternative Scenario: Deeper Sell Zone
Entry: 4,334 - 4,343 after clear rejection
Stop Loss: 4,360
Take Profit 1: 4,280
Take Profit 2: 4,236
Take Profit 3: 4,180
Buy Scalping Scenario
Entry: 4,125 - 4,150 only after bullish confirmation
Stop Loss: 4,105
Take Profit 1: 4,180
Take Profit 2: 4,217
Take Profit 3: 4,236
Overall View
Gold is expected to remain bearish on the H1 timeframe today. The main plan is to follow the trend and wait for price to pull back into a clean sell zone before looking for continuation.
Do you think gold will reject from 4,236 first, or recover deeper into the 4,334 - 4,343 sell zone before continuing lower?
Banknifty in WXY wave (one possibility)Banknifty now in wxy wave..
Wave abc completed under Wave W as zigzag.
Wave X looks completed (if 55535 not broken upside).
under Wave Y:- (Flat correction scenario rising)
Wave a fall completed.
Wave b also looks completed.
Wave c fall should be complete below wave a.
As per some of the rules, wave Y should complete below Wave W i.e. 52780.
All this scenario will be negate, if 55535 broken.
NIFTY Trading Blueprint | 10-Jun-2026
Hello Traders! 👋
Welcome back to another Live Trading Box market analysis. Today's plan is designed to help traders react to price action rather than predict the market. Focus on the key levels, wait for confirmation, and manage risk carefully. 🎯
📊 Important Levels for 10-Jun-2026
🔵 Opening Resistance Zone: 23,310 – 23,342
🟢 Opening Support: 23,192
🔴 Last Intraday Support: 23,115
🟠 Last Intraday Resistance: 23,419
🚀 Bullish Target: 23,567
⚠️ Major Bearish Target: 22,867
🟢 Scenario 1: Gap-Up Opening (+100 Points or More)
What Does It Mean?
A gap-up opening indicates strong overnight bullish sentiment. However, gap-ups often create emotional buying, so patience is essential.
📈 Bullish Action Plan
🔹 If NIFTY opens above 23,342 and sustains there for some time:
🔹 Wait for initial volatility to settle.
🔹 Observe whether the resistance zone (23,310–23,342) turns into support.
🔹 A successful retest can trigger fresh buying momentum.
🔹 First upside target remains 23,419.
🔹 Sustaining above 23,419 may open the path toward 23,567.
⚠️ What Can Go Wrong?
🔹 If the market opens strong but quickly falls back below 23,310, it may indicate profit booking.
🔹 Avoid chasing prices immediately after the opening bell.
🎓 Learning Point
Many traders lose money by buying the first green candle after a gap-up opening.
✅ Let the market confirm strength.
❌ Never assume that a gap-up means a full-day rally.
🟡 Scenario 2: Flat Opening (Within ±100 Points)
What Does It Mean?
A flat opening usually provides the cleanest trading opportunities because the market decides direction after the opening range is formed.
📈 Bullish Setup
🔹 If NIFTY sustains above 23,342:
🔹 Buyers may gain control.
🔹 Immediate target becomes 23,419.
🔹 Above 23,419, the next objective can be 23,567.
🔹 Look for higher highs and higher lows before entering.
📉 Bearish Setup
🔹 If NIFTY breaks below 23,192:
🔹 Selling pressure may increase.
🔹 First downside target becomes 23,115.
🔹 A breakdown below 23,115 can invite further weakness.
🎓 Learning Point
The zone between 23,192 and 23,342 is likely to act as the day's decision area.
✅ Trade after confirmation.
❌ Avoid guessing breakout direction.
🔴 Scenario 3: Gap-Down Opening (-100 Points or More)
What Does It Mean?
A gap-down opening reflects overnight weakness, but it does not guarantee a bearish trend throughout the day.
📈 Recovery Setup
🔹 If NIFTY opens lower but quickly reclaims 23,192:
🔹 Short-covering may emerge.
🔹 Price can revisit the resistance zone at 23,310–23,342.
🔹 Sustaining above that zone may completely negate early weakness.
📉 Bearish Continuation Setup
🔹 If NIFTY remains below 23,192:
🔹 Bears may continue to dominate.
🔹 First support remains 23,115.
🔹 Breaking below 23,115 can trigger deeper downside movement.
🔹 Extended weakness may eventually push NIFTY toward 22,867.
🎓 Learning Point
Professional traders wait for confirmation after a gap-down.
✅ Let support and resistance develop.
❌ Never panic-sell at the open.
💡 Price Action Checklist Before Any Trade
🔹 Is the level clearly broken?
🔹 Has the breakout candle closed beyond the level?
🔹 Is volume supporting the move?
🔹 Has resistance turned into support (or vice versa)?
🔹 Is the risk-reward ratio favorable?
If the answer is "No" to most of these questions, wait. Patience is a trading edge. 🎯
🛡️ Options Trading Risk Management Tips
🔹 Risk only a small portion of your capital on a single trade.
🔹 Always decide your stop-loss before entering.
🔹 Never average a losing options position.
🔹 Avoid buying options after a huge move when premiums are already expensive.
🔹 Focus on price action instead of market opinions.
🔹 Book partial profits whenever targets are achieved.
🔹 Use proper position sizing.
🔹 If market structure is unclear, stay out and wait for better opportunities.
🔹 Capital protection is more important than finding trades every day.
🔹 Consistency creates wealth, not one big trade. 💰
📌 Summary & Conclusion
🔹 23,310–23,342 remains the key resistance zone for today's session.
🔹 Sustaining above this zone may lead to 23,419 and eventually 23,567.
🔹 23,192 is the most important immediate support.
🔹 Below 23,115, bearish momentum may increase significantly.
🔹 The best opportunities will likely come from waiting for confirmation around these levels rather than predicting market direction.
🎯 Stay patient.
🎯 Respect stop-losses.
🎯 Follow price action.
🎯 Protect your capital first.
A disciplined trader survives long enough to benefit from the next opportunity. 🚀📈
⚠️ Disclaimer
This analysis is shared strictly for educational purposes to help traders understand price action, market structure, and risk management concepts.
I am not a SEBI Registered Analyst or Investment Advisor. This post should not be considered financial or investment advice. Please consult your financial advisor before making any trading or investment decisions.
Trade at your own risk. 🙏📊
Fair Value Gaps and Flag Patterns 📌 What Is a Fair Value Gap (FVG)?
A Fair Value Gap is one of those concepts that sounds complex but is beautifully simple once you see it.
When price moves so fast and so aggressively in one direction that it skips over a zone without proper two-sided trading, meaning buyers and sellers never truly met at those prices, it leaves behind an imbalance. That imbalance is called a Fair Value Gap.
A Bullish Fair Value Gap specifically forms during a strong upward move. It appears as a visible gap or thin zone on the chart where: This zone often acts as a point of interest in future price action. Markets have a natural tendency to revisit these areas, not always, not guaranteed,but frequently enough that they are widely watched by traders across all levels. When price returns to a bullish FVG, it is essentially returning to a zone where buyers once stepped in so aggressively
🚩 The Flag Pattern - A Pause Within the Move
After a strong, sharp move upward, often called the flagpole, price doesn't simply continue in a straight line. It breathes. It consolidates. It digests the gains.
This consolidation phase, when it forms as a parallel channel drifting slightly downward or sideways, is called a Flag Pattern. The upper boundary and lower boundary of this channel run roughly parallel to each other, hence the name, it visually resembles a flag hanging from a pole.
📊 Volume — The Heartbeat of Both Patterns
Volume ties everything together, and in this chart, it tells a very coherent story across both structures.
During the Bullish FVG formation:
Volume spikes sharply. This is expected and meaningful. A Fair Value Gap that forms on low volume is a weak imbalance. One that forms on high volume tells you that a large number of participants were aggressively involved in that move
⚠️ Disclaimer : This post is entirely educational and observational in nature. All chart patterns, concepts, and structures discussed are shared purely for learning purposes and to explain how these patterns visually appear on a chart. This is not financial advice, not a trade call, and not a directional forecast of any kind. No bias toward bullish or bearish outcomes is implied or intended.
A Symmetrical Triangle on the 6-Month Timeframe🔺 The Symmetrical Triangle
A symmetrical triangle forms when price action prints a series of lower highs and higher lows, compressing into an apex — a battle between buyers and sellers reaching equilibrium. Neither side dominates. The market is coiling, storing energy like a spring.
What makes this pattern so significant here is its scale. This isn't a triangle forming over days or weeks,this structure has been carved out over multiple years.
🕯️ The 6-Month Timeframe
The 6-month timeframe is one of the rarest lenses in technical analysis. Each candle represents an entire half-year of price action — roughly 130 trading days compressed into a single bar. Two candles complete one full year. One closes at the end of June, the other at the end of December.
📊 Volume . What are Volumes ?
Volume on a symmetrical triangle tells the real story. Classically, volume contracts steadily as price converges toward the apex — and that's exactly what well-formed triangles at this scale exhibit. Declining volume during compression signals that conviction is being withheld, not absent.
On the 6-month chart, a single volume bar represents the total traded volume across six months.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This post is strictly observational and educational in nature. The charts and patterns discussed reflect historical price action and are shared solely for learning purposes. This is not financial advice, not a trade recommendation, and should not be interpreted as a signal to buy or sell any asset
ROUTE MOBILE Fundamentally undervalued, technically broken — a patience game 🕰️
Route Mobile is not a broken business — it's a deliberately repositioning one. The market is punishing reported PAT, which is distorted by one-time write-offs and ILD exit costs. The underlying engine (gross margin expansion, FCF >100%, adj. PAT growth) tells a better story. At ~16x reported P/E and ~1.7x P/BV, the stock is trading at historically cheap valuations 💡.
The risk: earnings recovery is not yet visible in headline numbers, technicals are fully bearish, and FY27 guidance is vague. Best suited for patient investors with 2–3 year horizon who can stomach volatility. Stagger entries in ₹450–₹600 range. A monthly close above ₹680 with volume would be the first credible technical green flag 🟢.
✅
Strengths
FCF conversion >100% of EBITDA — cash machine 💰
First ever ₹1,000 Cr gross profit milestone in FY26 🎯
Debt/equity 0.01x — near zero debt, no interest burden 💚
Proximus Group backing — access to global telco network 🌍
Gross margins structurally improving (19% → 22.9% in 2 yrs) 📈
Dividend hiked 22% to ₹11/share despite tough year 🎉
Adj. PAT actually grew 6.7% YoY — market mispricing this 😏
ROIC ~21% — excellent capital efficiency 💡
280 direct MNO connections, 2,500 active enterprise clients 🔗
GOOD BUY ZONES
DEEP VALUE PIC AT 520-550
TARGETS 750+
HDFC Bank: Deep Bull Flag Testing Major SupportHDFC Bank made a strong upward move from 726.65 to 820.05. This forms the pole of the pattern. Since then, the price has been moving down inside a clear parallel channel, which forms the flag.
The Deep Correction
This flag is much steeper and deeper than a textbook pattern. The price has dropped back down to 733.15, which means it gave back almost all the gains from the first move.
While a normal bull flag is usually shallow, this deep drop is still valid if we look at it as an Elliott Wave 2 correction. Wave 2 corrections often retrace deeply, as long as they do not break the starting point of the move.
Trading Levels
Invalidation Level: 727.00. If the price closes below this green line, the entire bullish setup is wrong.
Trigger: A clean breakout above the top blue line of the descending channel.
Target: Beyond 825.05.
Conclusion
Because the price is sitting very close to the invalidation line, the risk is small and the potential reward is large. We are waiting for a breakout to confirm that the upward trend is starting again.
Disclaimer
I am not a SEBI registered investment advisor. This post is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any stock. Trading involves financial risk, and you should consult a certified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
XAUUSD: Intraday bullish channel supports recovery.Gold is building a short-term recovery structure after the recent sharp decline, and price is now moving inside a rising intraday channel. From Kelly’s view, the main scenario for today still leans bullish as long as gold can hold above the lower channel support and stay above the key violation area near 4,313.
The important detail is that this recovery is not fully confirmed as a broader reversal yet. It is an intraday bullish channel inside a market that still carries medium-term bearish risk.
⟡ Market structure
The chart shows gold reacting from the lower area after the previous sell-off, then forming higher lows inside the rising channel. Price is currently trading around 4,338–4,352, with the next important resistance sitting near 4,375–4,426.
The 4,313 area is critical. If price stays above this zone, the intraday recovery structure remains valid and gold may continue pushing towards the upper channel area.
However, if price breaks below 4,313 and loses the rising channel, the bullish recovery setup weakens quickly. That would activate the alternative scenario, where the market resumes the medium-term wave 5 decline.
➤ Key levels
◌ 4,313: signal-strength violation area and key invalidation level
◌ 4,338–4,352: current reaction zone
◌ 4,375–4,380: first upside resistance
◌ 4,426: strong support turned upper resistance
◌ 4,210–4,220: medium-term wave 5 downside target if the channel breaks
⌁ Elliott Wave view
From an Elliott Wave perspective, the current intraday structure may be developing as a recovery sequence after the previous bearish wave. The latest movement shows a possible smaller bullish structure forming inside the rising channel.
If the channel holds, gold may continue building wave 3 to wave 5 higher inside the short-term recovery path, with 4,375 first and 4,426 as the next target area.
The exception is clear. If gold breaks below 4,313, the bullish sequence loses quality. In that case, the chart may shift back into the medium-term bearish count, where wave 5 lower can continue towards the 4,210–4,220 zone.
▸ Trading scenario
Preferred scenario: wait for price to hold above the rising channel and confirm continuation.
Entry zone: after bullish confirmation above 4,338–4,352
Stop loss: below 4,313
Take profit 1: 4,375
Take profit 2: 4,426
Take profit 3: 4,450 if momentum expands
Alternative scenario: if gold breaks below 4,313 and closes outside the rising channel, the bullish intraday setup weakens. In that case, the medium-term wave 5 decline may be activated, with 4,210–4,220 becoming the next major downside reference.
⌁ Kelly’s view
For Kelly, this is a conditional bullish intraday setup. The rising channel is still valid, but the market must protect 4,313 to keep the recovery structure alive.
The cleaner view is not to chase price blindly. Watch whether gold can hold the channel and reclaim resistance step by step.
Gold is recovering inside the intraday channel.
But if 4,313 breaks, the medium-term wave 5 bearish scenario comes back into focus.
Share your view below.
XAUUSD Analysis: Potential Rounded Bottom Reversal Targeting $4,This 30-minute chart analysis of Gold (XAUUSD) shows a clear shift in market structure. After a sustained bearish trend highlighted by the early June sell-offs, price action has formed a massive rounded bottom setup.
A long position is being framed from the current support levels near $4,300. With a tight stop loss placed just below the recent swing low at $4,271, this risk-to-reward setup targets a retest of the major resistance liquidity pool at $4,473.47. Watch for a confirmed bullish breakout past the immediate overhead structure to validate the upward trajectory.
Ambuja Cement - Completion of W2 of primary degree - Buy
Ambuja Cement - Weekly chart
The stock which is now part of Adani group started forming its first impulse wave only during Oct 2008 though it got listed in July 2007.
The stock completed its Wave 1 of "Primary" degree during Mar 2015. Wave 2 correction got completed during Mar 2020 achieving a retracement of 61.8% of Wave 1. The type of correction was a flat structure.
The stock completed its Wave 3 of "Primary" degree during Nov 2022 and completed Wave 4 correction during Feb 2023 (again as a flat) achieving a retracement of over 60% of Wave 3.
Stock has been forming Wave 5 of "Primary degree" since Feb 2023.
The stock completed Wave (1) of intermediary degree / Wave 5 Primary degree on 2 July 2024 and very likely completed Wave (2) as a zigzag on 23 Mar 2026 achieving a retracement of 78.6% as shown in the chart.
The stock has formed a lower degree impulse wave and is undergoing correction.
Buy Ambuja Cements with a medium-term perspective with a stop loss below 78.6% retracement (390 levels).
TATAELXSI: The 2x Setup ?Is a 100% (2x) move brewing in TATAELXSI? 📈
The chart is showing a textbook Wave 4 flat correction, and the setup is finally approaching a critical inflection point.
The Technical Thesis:
The Correction: We are observing a textbook Wave 4 flat correction that has fully retraced to the 100% mark.
The Hurdle: The 0-B Trendline remains the primary resistance.
The Trigger: A clean breakout above this trendline, supported by a surge in volume, is the confirmation needed for a potential 5th wave move.
The strategy is simple:
1️⃣ Monitor the 0-B Trendline.
2️⃣ Wait for the breakout.
3️⃣ Confirm with volume.
Patience is the difference between a winner and a trap. Are you on the sidelines, or are you already positioned? 🧐🚀
NIFTY Daily Trading Blueprint | 09-Jun-2026 | Educational Price Action Guide 📚
Hello Traders! 🙋♂️ Welcome back to another simplified market breakdown. In today’s Live Trading Box analysis, we are decoding the price structure for NIFTY ahead of the trading session on 09-Jun-2026.
Let's break down the logic step-by-step so you can trade with absolute clarity today! 🧠📊
🟢 Scenario 1: Gap Up Opening (+100 Points)
If global markets push higher, Nifty might open with a solid gap up, landing somewhere above the 23,204 mark. This effectively bypasses our immediate overhead hurdles.
What to do & The Logic behind it:
🔹 Don't Catch the FOMO (Solid Blue Path): A steep gap up instantly forces short sellers to cover and tempts overnight buyers to lock in quick profits. This often creates an immediate morning dip. Never buy the first green candle blindly!
🔹 Wait for the Retest: Let the index pull back and test the 23,161.72 - 23,176.00 area (Opening Resistance turning into Support) from above.
🔹 The Trade Setup: If the price hits this zone and leaves long lower shadows (wick rejection) or prints a strong bullish 15-minute candle, it confirms the floor. You can plan a Long trade targeting the Last Intraday Resistance at 23,309.00.
🔹 Exhaustion Caution (Dotted Red Path): Keep a close eye on the 23,309 level. Institutional supply is heavy here, which can trigger a sharp drop if the momentum fizzles out.
🟡 Scenario 2: Flat Opening (Near 23,103)
A flat opening means the market wakes up right where it went to sleep—near 23,103.70. This drops the index directly onto our near-term demand zone.
What to do & The Logic behind it:
🔸 The Tug-of-War Zone (Orange Path): A flat open immediately checks the strength of our Opening Support block (23,040 - 23,099).
🔸 Bullish Confirmation: If the market dips into this orange block but builds a tight base with a series of higher lows, it shows active institutional accumulation. You can look for a buying setup targeting a bounce back up toward 23,161.72 and 23,176.00.
🔸 The Range Warning: If the index refuses to break out of the 23,040 to 23,176 range, option buyers should hold back. Overlapping candles inside a tight box will result in heavy premium decay. Wait for a clean 15-minute candle close outside the boundaries to confirm strong momentum.
🔴 Scenario 3: Gap Down Opening (-100 Points)
If selling pressure dominates, a 100+ point gap down will dump Nifty below the psychological 23,000 mark, opening well below our short-term accumulation floor.
What to do & The Logic behind it:
🔻 The Breakdown Velocity (Solid Red Path): Opening below the 23,040 floor hands total near-term control over to the bears. If the index attempts a morning recovery but repeatedly faces a ceiling at 23,040, it establishes a clean "sell-on-rising" environment. You can plan a short/Put setup targeting the Last Intraday Support at 22,871.00.
🔻 Don't Short the Bottom (Dotted Orange/Blue Paths): If the market panics and plunges rapidly towards 22,871.00 or 22,751.00, stop shorting. These are primary multi-day macro floors.
🔻 The Institutional Trap: Look closely for trend exhaustion signatures, a sharp W-pattern, or a massive spike in buying volume at these lower green lines. If buyers step in, it presents a highly favorable risk-to-reward long swing trade aiming for a quick gap-fill rally back up.
🛡️ Risk Management & Options Trading Tips
Trading options without rules is like driving without brakes. Lock these professional protocols into your routine today:
⚡ Mind the Theta (Time Decay): If the index gets stuck moving sideways between 23,040 and 23,176, do not buy options. The clock will eat your premium even if the market doesn't move against you.
⚡ Strike Selection Discipline: Avoid cheap, deep Out-of-the-Money (OTM) lottery options. Stick rigidly to At-The-Money (ATM) or In-The-Money (ITM) contracts to ensure real delta movement and healthy liquidity.
⚡ Chart-Based Stop Loss: Always base your stop-loss execution on the Nifty spot index chart levels, not on the fluctuating option premium price. Option premiums can spike wildly due to changes in Implied Volatility (IV).
⚡ Capital Preservation Allocation: Never risk more than 1% to 2% of your total liquid trading equity on any single trade setup. Live to trade another day!
📝 Summary & Conclusion
To wrap up today's roadmap: The 23,040 - 23,099 zone represents the absolute floor for the bulls today, while 23,161.72 - 23,176.00 stands as the immediate ceiling. Staying above 23,176 allows bulls to drive toward 23,309.00. On the flip side, a clean break under 23,040 hands the keys to the bears for a flush down to 22,871.00 and 22,751.00, where we must switch gears and watch for strong institutional accumulation patterns. Let the opening candles develop completely, track your levels objectively, and manage your risk ruthlessly! 🎯🛡️
⚠️ Disclaimer: I am not a SEBI registered analyst. This detailed plan and chart analysis are provided strictly for educational purposes and to help you understand price action. Please consult with your certified financial advisor and do your own research before taking any real trades in the market.
CDSL - WAVE 5 IS COMING...... IT'S TIME TO ACCUMULATE
WAVE 5 IS COMING...... IT'S TIME TO ACCUMULATE THE STOCK
IT'S BUY TIME
RULE OF ALTERATION, WAVE 2 AND WAVE 4 ARE STRUCTURALLY DIFFERENT
WAVE 2 ZIGZAG CORRECTION
WAVE 4 FLAT CORRECTION IN PROGRESS
WAVE 4 SHOULD COMPLETE BETWEEN FIB LEVEL 0.786 TO 1
If Wave 4 breaches the extreme price point of Wave 1, the entire impulse pattern is immediately invalidated.
APTECH in good ccumulatin zone !!The entire listed education sector is under pressure — NIIT, Zee Learn, Veranda all down 25–50%+ in the past year. This is a sector-wide re-rating, not just an Aptech story. Among peers, Aptech stands out for being profitable and debt-free, which most peers aren't. NIIT Learning Systems trades at a massive premium (40–50× P/E) because of its enterprise/corporate training moat — a very different business. Aptech at ~24× PE looks more reasonable, but the earnings quality (big Q4 miss) is a concern.
👍 Pros — why it could go up
Double-bottom forming
Bounced from ₹69 twice — classic reversal base near multi-year lows
Debt-free + profitable
FY26 net profit +23% YoY · zero debt · solid balance sheet vs all peers
4.5% dividend yield
₹4.50/share declared · pays you to wait · rare for small-caps
Strong brand franchise
Arena Animation, Lakme Academy — sticky asset-light franchise model
Govt contract pipeline
Skill India + state govt training deals · growing enterprise business
RSI recovering from extreme
Weekly RSI hit ~28 in early 2026 — historically a strong buy zone for this stock
Value vs history
Trading at 76% below ATH of ₹422 · P/E 23× reasonable for education
**********************************************
Zone 1 MA compression zone · current price · add 30% of position
₹95–105
Zone 2 Key demand zone · 2024 lows retest · add 40% of position
₹82–90
Zone 3 Double-bottom base · maximum conviction zone · add 30%
₹69–76
TARGETS OPEN FOR NOW >>.
Nifty Analysis for the week 08 June to 12 June, 2026Wrap up:-
In major time frame, we are in wave y of x of major wave 4. In wave y, wave a has been completed at 24601 and wave b is in progress which is forming a 3-3-5 irregular correction.
In wave b, internal wave a is completed at 23813 and wave b is in progress which is now making a abc pattern and is expected to be completed in the range of 24772-25181.
After, breaking of low of 23262, some internal counts have been changed. Now, in internal wave b of wave b, wave a has completed at 24181, wave b has been completed at 23151 and wave c is in progress.
What I’m Watching for the week 08 June to 12 June, 2026🔍
In wave c, Nifty has completed wave 1 and 2, and now heading towards the probable target of 24772-25181.
Disclaimer: Sharing my personal market view — only for educational purpose not financial advice.
"Don't predict the market. Decode them."
Broadening Jaws of the Market - Where Fair Value Meets Structure📋 DESCRIPTION
📌 Fair Value Gap (FVG) — The Foundation
A Fair Value Gap is a price inefficiency left behind when the market moves so aggressively in one direction that it skips over a range of prices — leaving a void between three consecutive candles. In this case, we have a Bullish Fair Value Gap — meaning price left an unfilled imbalance to the upside, suggesting that institutional orders were not fully filled during that impulsive move.
📌 Broadening Pattern (Megaphone Formation) — The Structure
By connecting the top of the Fair Value Gap with the subsequent price highs using a green dotted line, a classic Broadening Pattern (also known as a Megaphone or Expanding Formation) emerges.
This pattern is characterized by:
Higher Highs on the upper trendline (expanding tops)
Equal or rising support along the lower trendline (resting on the FVG zone)
📌 The Red Line — The Broken Multi-Support Level
The red horizontal line represents a historically significant multi-touch support zone — a level where price bounced repeatedly in the past, reinforcing its structural importance with each touch. However, support, once broken with conviction, often transforms into resistance.
In this case, the level broke down decisively. What followed was a near 50% decline from that breakdown zone
📌 White Counter Trendline — The Battle Line
The white line is a Counter Trendline — drawn against the prevailing short-term or medium-term trend to define the boundary of a corrective or reactive move. In technical analysis, a counter trendline marks where the price action is pushing back against the dominant trend
⚠️ DISCLAIMER:
This post is strictly educational and analytical in nature. It is not a buy or sell recommendation, nor does it constitute financial advice of any kind. All analysis presented here is based on technical observations and is non-forecasting and non-directional.
Institutional Swing Option TradingInstitutional Investors such as banks, hedge funds, mutual funds, and insurance companies play a major role in the financial markets. Institutional trading refers to large-scale buying and selling of securities by these organizations. Because institutions trade in huge volumes, their actions can strongly influence stock prices and market trends. They often use advanced research, algorithms, and risk-management systems to make trading decisions.
Advanced Options TradingIn options trading, institutional traders usually have advantages over retail traders because they have access to better technology, market data, and experienced analysts. Institutions often use options to hedge portfolios, manage market exposure, and improve investment returns. For example, a fund manager may buy put options to protect investments during uncertain market conditions. Their trading strategies are usually more disciplined and data-driven compared to individual investors.
Road Mapoptions trading and institutional trading are important parts of modern financial markets. Options trading offers flexibility and opportunities for profit, while institutional trading provides liquidity and stability to the market. However, beginners should learn market concepts carefully before entering options trading because losses can occur quickly without proper knowledge and risk management. Education, practice, and disciplined investing are essential for long-term success in trading.






















