OPEN-SOURCE SCRIPT
Global Manufacturing Cycle Index 24/3
Global Manufacturing Cycle Index
A composite cyclical indicator that aggregates Year-over-Year (YoY) manufacturing production across major economies, rendering the result as a normalized, smoothed cycle oscillator.
The Motivation
TradingView lists ECONOMICS:WWMPMI (World Manufacturing PMI), but it does not plot because S&P Global keeps the underlying JPM Global PMI series behind a subscription wall. This script resolves that data gap by reconstructing a usable synthetic equivalent. It pulls publicly available country-level manufacturing data, aggregates it, and transforms the raw noisy YoY changes into a clean, actionable macroeconomic cycle signal.
Core Mechanics
Visuals & Diagnostics
Signal Interpretation
Zero represents the historical mean over your chosen lookback window.
Customization Notes
All series are monthly, meaning the indicator updates on the underlying release cadence regardless of your chart's timeframe. The default 24-month lookback and 3-month EMA provide a responsive signal. Users wanting a slower, more strategic read can extend these settings (e.g., 120-month lookback with a 6-12 EMA) to produce a smooth, business cycle wave.
A composite cyclical indicator that aggregates Year-over-Year (YoY) manufacturing production across major economies, rendering the result as a normalized, smoothed cycle oscillator.
The Motivation
TradingView lists ECONOMICS:WWMPMI (World Manufacturing PMI), but it does not plot because S&P Global keeps the underlying JPM Global PMI series behind a subscription wall. This script resolves that data gap by reconstructing a usable synthetic equivalent. It pulls publicly available country-level manufacturing data, aggregates it, and transforms the raw noisy YoY changes into a clean, actionable macroeconomic cycle signal.
Core Mechanics
- Data Ingestion: Pulls YoY manufacturing production for up to five economies via request.security (Default: US, China, Eurozone, Japan, plus one optional slot).
- Aggregation: Combines regional data using Sum, Average, or Weighted modes. Default weights approximate global manufacturing share (China 30%, US 17%, Eurozone 15%, Japan 7%).
- Z-Score Normalization: Translates the raw data into standard deviation units based on a rolling window (default 24-months). This keeps the index responsive to the current monetary and trade regime rather than averaging across structurally different historical eras.
- EMA Smoothing: Applies a customizable EMA pass to strip monthly noise and isolate the underlying structural trend.
Visuals & Diagnostics
- Regime Backgrounds: The chart background automatically colors green when the index is above zero (expansion) and red when below zero (contraction).
- Standard Deviation Bands: Plots ±1 SD and ±2 SD lines to help identify cycle extremes and mean-reversion zones.
- Status Table: Includes a built-in diagnostic table in the top right corner to verify if the underlying macroeconomic data series have loaded successfully.
- Raw Data Toggle: Option to plot the raw, individual YoY series for each country to see what is driving the composite.
Signal Interpretation
Zero represents the historical mean over your chosen lookback window.
- Above Zero: The global manufacturing cycle is expanding. This macro regime is typically highly conducive to risk asset rotation and momentum-based breakout setups.
- Below Zero: Contraction or relative weakness.
- Actionable Signals: Look for sustained inflections through the zero line, or divergences between this index and risk assets (or Dr. Copper).
Customization Notes
All series are monthly, meaning the indicator updates on the underlying release cadence regardless of your chart's timeframe. The default 24-month lookback and 3-month EMA provide a responsive signal. Users wanting a slower, more strategic read can extend these settings (e.g., 120-month lookback with a 6-12 EMA) to produce a smooth, business cycle wave.
Open-source script
In true TradingView spirit, the creator of this script has made it open-source, so that traders can review and verify its functionality. Kudos to the author! While you can use it for free, remember that republishing the code is subject to our House Rules.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Open-source script
In true TradingView spirit, the creator of this script has made it open-source, so that traders can review and verify its functionality. Kudos to the author! While you can use it for free, remember that republishing the code is subject to our House Rules.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.