OPEN-SOURCE SCRIPT
Risk Metric
ZIZO Risk Metric
Hard money. Don't trust. Verify.
OVERVIEW
ZIZO Risk Metric scores Bitcoin on a 0–100 scale. 0 means maximum opportunity (deep value). 100 means maximum risk (stretched). It answers one question: how expensive is price right now relative to its own long-term trend?
Every anchor in this script is fixed and chosen on purpose. Nothing refits itself to recent price. That is the point — the metric is a verification tool, not a curve that chases the market.
THE IDEA
Price rarely sits at a fair value. It swings between two log-scaled boundaries around a 200-period moving average. This script measures where price sits between those two boundaries, on a log scale, and turns that position into a single number.
Low readings cluster near cycle bottoms. High readings cluster near cycle tops. The scale compresses over time to reflect diminishing returns as the asset matures.
HOW IT WORKS
Two bounds are built from the SMA:
Upper bound = 3.0 × SMA × scale
Lower bound = 0.35 × SMA (static by default)
The scale factor gently contracts the upper bound over time:
scale = e^(decay × (bar_index − offset) × sensitivity) + baseline
Risk is the log-distance of price between the two bounds:
Risk = (ln price − ln lower) / (ln upper − ln lower), clamped to 0–1, shown ×100.
The smoothed line applies the same transform to the SMA instead of raw price. It strips out daily noise and shows the underlying cycle position.
HOW TO READ IT
Colour map runs cool (low risk) to hot (high risk).
Green zone = accumulation. Red zone = distribution.
Exit threshold default: 89.43. Entry threshold default: 32.79.
The weighted Entry/Exit plot suggests a DCA weight that scales up as risk moves deeper into a zone. It only fires inside the entry or exit band, and it caps at the cutoff (default 9%).
SETTINGS
Risk Metric — SMA length, time offset, decay, sensitivity, baseline, and the two bounds. These define the model. Once calibrated, leave them fixed.
Colorway — heat-map colouring and the legend table.
Weighted Entry/Exit — base, exponent, cutoff, and the two thresholds that define the accumulation and distribution zones.
Model X Overlays — threshold lines, shaded zone fills, and an optional 50 midline.
Timeframe — evaluate the metric on Daily, Weekly, Monthly, or the chart's own resolution.
WHAT THIS VERSION ADDS
Rebuilt on foosmoo's Risk Metric core. Additions over the original:
Full colour-map redesign on a clean 0–100 display scale
Smoothed risk line derived from the SMA
Weighted, zone-aware entry/exit DCA percentages
Threshold lines, zone fills, and midline overlays
Time-offset marker and colour-map legend table
Entry-zone and exit-zone alert conditions
CREDITS & LICENSE
Based on foosmoo's Risk Metric (v2.2), used under the Mozilla Public License 2.0. This script keeps that licence. Full text: mozilla.org/MPL/2.0/
DISCLAIMER
This is an educational and research tool, not financial advice. Risk metrics describe the past and present. They do not predict the future. Verify every number yourself before acting on it.
Hard money. Don't trust. Verify.
Hard money. Don't trust. Verify.
OVERVIEW
ZIZO Risk Metric scores Bitcoin on a 0–100 scale. 0 means maximum opportunity (deep value). 100 means maximum risk (stretched). It answers one question: how expensive is price right now relative to its own long-term trend?
Every anchor in this script is fixed and chosen on purpose. Nothing refits itself to recent price. That is the point — the metric is a verification tool, not a curve that chases the market.
THE IDEA
Price rarely sits at a fair value. It swings between two log-scaled boundaries around a 200-period moving average. This script measures where price sits between those two boundaries, on a log scale, and turns that position into a single number.
Low readings cluster near cycle bottoms. High readings cluster near cycle tops. The scale compresses over time to reflect diminishing returns as the asset matures.
HOW IT WORKS
Two bounds are built from the SMA:
Upper bound = 3.0 × SMA × scale
Lower bound = 0.35 × SMA (static by default)
The scale factor gently contracts the upper bound over time:
scale = e^(decay × (bar_index − offset) × sensitivity) + baseline
Risk is the log-distance of price between the two bounds:
Risk = (ln price − ln lower) / (ln upper − ln lower), clamped to 0–1, shown ×100.
The smoothed line applies the same transform to the SMA instead of raw price. It strips out daily noise and shows the underlying cycle position.
HOW TO READ IT
Colour map runs cool (low risk) to hot (high risk).
Green zone = accumulation. Red zone = distribution.
Exit threshold default: 89.43. Entry threshold default: 32.79.
The weighted Entry/Exit plot suggests a DCA weight that scales up as risk moves deeper into a zone. It only fires inside the entry or exit band, and it caps at the cutoff (default 9%).
SETTINGS
Risk Metric — SMA length, time offset, decay, sensitivity, baseline, and the two bounds. These define the model. Once calibrated, leave them fixed.
Colorway — heat-map colouring and the legend table.
Weighted Entry/Exit — base, exponent, cutoff, and the two thresholds that define the accumulation and distribution zones.
Model X Overlays — threshold lines, shaded zone fills, and an optional 50 midline.
Timeframe — evaluate the metric on Daily, Weekly, Monthly, or the chart's own resolution.
WHAT THIS VERSION ADDS
Rebuilt on foosmoo's Risk Metric core. Additions over the original:
Full colour-map redesign on a clean 0–100 display scale
Smoothed risk line derived from the SMA
Weighted, zone-aware entry/exit DCA percentages
Threshold lines, zone fills, and midline overlays
Time-offset marker and colour-map legend table
Entry-zone and exit-zone alert conditions
CREDITS & LICENSE
Based on foosmoo's Risk Metric (v2.2), used under the Mozilla Public License 2.0. This script keeps that licence. Full text: mozilla.org/MPL/2.0/
DISCLAIMER
This is an educational and research tool, not financial advice. Risk metrics describe the past and present. They do not predict the future. Verify every number yourself before acting on it.
Hard money. Don't trust. Verify.
Open-source script
In true TradingView spirit, the creator of this script has made it open-source, so that traders can review and verify its functionality. Kudos to the author! While you can use it for free, remember that republishing the code is subject to our House Rules.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Open-source script
In true TradingView spirit, the creator of this script has made it open-source, so that traders can review and verify its functionality. Kudos to the author! While you can use it for free, remember that republishing the code is subject to our House Rules.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.