Bitcoin Market Regime Detector [RegimeRisk]
█ WHAT THIS INDICATOR DOES
Most indicators answer "when should I buy or sell?" This one answers a different question: "what type of market am I in right now?"
Bitcoin Market Regime Detector classifies BTC into three market states:
BULL — Trend and momentum aligned to the upside. Trend-following
and breakout strategies have an edge here.
BEAR — Trend and momentum aligned to the downside. Shorts, hedging,
and risk reduction belong here.
RANGE — No dominant trend. Breakout strategies get chopped up.
Mean-reversion and range-bound setups work better.
The premise is simple: strategy selection should come after regime identification, not before. A moving average crossover strategy that prints money in a Bull regime will bleed you dry in a Range. A mean-reversion setup that works in Range will get steamrolled in a Bear. Knowing the regime first changes everything downstream.
█ HOW IT WORKS
The indicator combines four dimensions into a composite trend score:
1. Trend Direction — Fast/slow EMA crossover determines baseline bias
2. Trend Strength — ADX filters low-conviction environments
3. Momentum — RSI confirms buyer or seller control
4. Directional Index — DI+ vs DI- casts a final directional vote
Each dimension contributes to a score ranging from -2.5 (strong bearish) to +2.5 (strong bullish). The classification logic:
• ADX below threshold → Range (regardless of other signals)
• Strong positive score + RSI confirmation → Bull
• Strong negative score + RSI confirmation → Bear
• Conflicting or weak signals → Range
This layered approach prevents false regime calls during choppy, low-conviction periods where a single indicator would flip back and forth.
█ WHAT'S ON THE CHART
• Colour-coded bars — green (Bull), red (Bear), indigo (Range)
• Background shading — subtle regime colouring across the chart
• Regime change labels — flags appear when the regime shifts
• Info panel — current regime, duration in bars, and trend score
• Optional EMAs — toggle the underlying fast/slow EMAs on or off
█ ALERTS
Four alert conditions are built in:
• Regime → Bull
• Regime → Bear
• Regime → Range
• Any Regime Change
Set these through TradingView's alert menu to get notified on your phone or email when the market regime shifts.
█ SUGGESTED USE
Apply to BTCUSDT on the 4H or Daily timeframe. Use the regime as a filter for your existing strategy:
• In Bull: favour long entries, trend-following setups, breakout trades
• In Bear: favour short entries, hedging, reduced position sizes
• In Range: favour mean-reversion, avoid breakout strategies, tighten stops
The indicator works on other assets and timeframes, but the default parameters (21/55 EMA, 14-period ADX/RSI) are calibrated for BTC on higher timeframes. Adjust the inputs if applying to different instruments or lower timeframes.
█ INPUTS
Trend
• Fast EMA Length (default 21)
• Slow EMA Length (default 55)
Trend Strength
• ADX Length (default 14)
• ADX Range Threshold (default 20) — below this, market is classified as Range
Momentum
• RSI Length (default 14)
• RSI Bull Threshold (default 60)
• RSI Bear Threshold (default 40)
Display
• Background colour, regime labels, info panel, and EMAs can each be toggled independently
█ LIMITATIONS
This is a simplified regime classifier using indicators available natively in Pine Script. It does not have access to derivatives data (funding rates, open interest, liquidation flows) or cross-asset correlations that would improve classification accuracy, particularly for detecting volatility spikes and regime transitions. It is a trend/momentum-based classification tool — not a signal generator. Use it to inform your strategy selection, not as standalone buy/sell signals.
Most indicators answer "when should I buy or sell?" This one answers a different question: "what type of market am I in right now?"
Bitcoin Market Regime Detector classifies BTC into three market states:
BULL — Trend and momentum aligned to the upside. Trend-following
and breakout strategies have an edge here.
BEAR — Trend and momentum aligned to the downside. Shorts, hedging,
and risk reduction belong here.
RANGE — No dominant trend. Breakout strategies get chopped up.
Mean-reversion and range-bound setups work better.
The premise is simple: strategy selection should come after regime identification, not before. A moving average crossover strategy that prints money in a Bull regime will bleed you dry in a Range. A mean-reversion setup that works in Range will get steamrolled in a Bear. Knowing the regime first changes everything downstream.
█ HOW IT WORKS
The indicator combines four dimensions into a composite trend score:
1. Trend Direction — Fast/slow EMA crossover determines baseline bias
2. Trend Strength — ADX filters low-conviction environments
3. Momentum — RSI confirms buyer or seller control
4. Directional Index — DI+ vs DI- casts a final directional vote
Each dimension contributes to a score ranging from -2.5 (strong bearish) to +2.5 (strong bullish). The classification logic:
• ADX below threshold → Range (regardless of other signals)
• Strong positive score + RSI confirmation → Bull
• Strong negative score + RSI confirmation → Bear
• Conflicting or weak signals → Range
This layered approach prevents false regime calls during choppy, low-conviction periods where a single indicator would flip back and forth.
█ WHAT'S ON THE CHART
• Colour-coded bars — green (Bull), red (Bear), indigo (Range)
• Background shading — subtle regime colouring across the chart
• Regime change labels — flags appear when the regime shifts
• Info panel — current regime, duration in bars, and trend score
• Optional EMAs — toggle the underlying fast/slow EMAs on or off
█ ALERTS
Four alert conditions are built in:
• Regime → Bull
• Regime → Bear
• Regime → Range
• Any Regime Change
Set these through TradingView's alert menu to get notified on your phone or email when the market regime shifts.
█ SUGGESTED USE
Apply to BTCUSDT on the 4H or Daily timeframe. Use the regime as a filter for your existing strategy:
• In Bull: favour long entries, trend-following setups, breakout trades
• In Bear: favour short entries, hedging, reduced position sizes
• In Range: favour mean-reversion, avoid breakout strategies, tighten stops
The indicator works on other assets and timeframes, but the default parameters (21/55 EMA, 14-period ADX/RSI) are calibrated for BTC on higher timeframes. Adjust the inputs if applying to different instruments or lower timeframes.
█ INPUTS
Trend
• Fast EMA Length (default 21)
• Slow EMA Length (default 55)
Trend Strength
• ADX Length (default 14)
• ADX Range Threshold (default 20) — below this, market is classified as Range
Momentum
• RSI Length (default 14)
• RSI Bull Threshold (default 60)
• RSI Bear Threshold (default 40)
Display
• Background colour, regime labels, info panel, and EMAs can each be toggled independently
█ LIMITATIONS
This is a simplified regime classifier using indicators available natively in Pine Script. It does not have access to derivatives data (funding rates, open interest, liquidation flows) or cross-asset correlations that would improve classification accuracy, particularly for detecting volatility spikes and regime transitions. It is a trend/momentum-based classification tool — not a signal generator. Use it to inform your strategy selection, not as standalone buy/sell signals.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.