OPEN-SOURCE SCRIPT
Decennial Pattern Projection
This tool was created to map out a "blueprint" for future market movements based on historical cycles.
**Important Prerequisite: Monthly Timeframe Only**
First and foremost, this indicator is designed exclusively for **monthly charts**.
If applied to other timeframes—such as daily or weekly charts—it is programmed to intentionally stop functioning and display an error message ("This indicator requires a Monthly timeframe") to prevent coordinate misalignment or redundant data calculations. Please ensure you use it only on monthly charts.
**Indicator Overview and Usage**
This indicator extracts the "10-year cycle pattern"—a classic market anomaly where performance trends align based on the last digit of the calendar year. It then plots a projected future trajectory—showing the "average year-to-date (YTD) movement (%)"—directly onto the chart for the specified year (and the following year).
**Practical Trading Applications**
**Grasping Broad Seasonality**
You can visually identify seasonal rhythms—such as which months tend to mark market bottoms or whether prices often weaken in early autumn—for years ending in a specific digit. This helps reduce the risk of unnecessary contrarian trades and allows you to formulate trading plans that align with historical capital flow patterns.
**Can it be used for entry and exit timing?**
This line does not generate direct buy/sell signals (such as arrows). However, it serves as a tool to gauge market strength and inform strategy when seasonal patterns are pronounced—such as considering long positions during "statistically strong months" or lightening positions (or switching to short strategies) during "weak months." It also helps you determine if the market is deviating from the anomaly due to specific, overriding biases.
**Improving Accuracy by Excluding "Black Swan" Events**
If you believe that outlier data from specific years—such as the 2008 Lehman Shock or the 2020 COVID-19 crash—is skewing the average, you can exclude those years via the settings. As this is a matter of individual judgment, one might choose not to exclude it if one views it as an inevitable occurrence aligned with cycles of debt or similar obligations.
**Important Prerequisite: Monthly Timeframe Only**
First and foremost, this indicator is designed exclusively for **monthly charts**.
If applied to other timeframes—such as daily or weekly charts—it is programmed to intentionally stop functioning and display an error message ("This indicator requires a Monthly timeframe") to prevent coordinate misalignment or redundant data calculations. Please ensure you use it only on monthly charts.
**Indicator Overview and Usage**
This indicator extracts the "10-year cycle pattern"—a classic market anomaly where performance trends align based on the last digit of the calendar year. It then plots a projected future trajectory—showing the "average year-to-date (YTD) movement (%)"—directly onto the chart for the specified year (and the following year).
**Practical Trading Applications**
**Grasping Broad Seasonality**
You can visually identify seasonal rhythms—such as which months tend to mark market bottoms or whether prices often weaken in early autumn—for years ending in a specific digit. This helps reduce the risk of unnecessary contrarian trades and allows you to formulate trading plans that align with historical capital flow patterns.
**Can it be used for entry and exit timing?**
This line does not generate direct buy/sell signals (such as arrows). However, it serves as a tool to gauge market strength and inform strategy when seasonal patterns are pronounced—such as considering long positions during "statistically strong months" or lightening positions (or switching to short strategies) during "weak months." It also helps you determine if the market is deviating from the anomaly due to specific, overriding biases.
**Improving Accuracy by Excluding "Black Swan" Events**
If you believe that outlier data from specific years—such as the 2008 Lehman Shock or the 2020 COVID-19 crash—is skewing the average, you can exclude those years via the settings. As this is a matter of individual judgment, one might choose not to exclude it if one views it as an inevitable occurrence aligned with cycles of debt or similar obligations.
Open-source script
In true TradingView spirit, the creator of this script has made it open-source, so that traders can review and verify its functionality. Kudos to the author! While you can use it for free, remember that republishing the code is subject to our House Rules.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Open-source script
In true TradingView spirit, the creator of this script has made it open-source, so that traders can review and verify its functionality. Kudos to the author! While you can use it for free, remember that republishing the code is subject to our House Rules.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.