The Macro Picture 🗺️
AAVE's four-month range between $87 and $130 has resolved to the downside. The May bullish reclaim attempt was rejected cleanly at the $100 decision zone, and the $87 macro floor broke on a sustained close in late May. What held as the structural base of the prior consolidation has now flipped into resistance — the failed retest near $90 sealed the level's role reversal, and price has carved a fresh leg of lower highs and lower lows into the $75–$78 zone. RSI is driving into deep oversold below 30, flagging exhaustion in the move but not yet signaling reversal.
The Setup ⚙️
The Rejection: The $100 zone held as the ceiling of the prior range and now sits well above price — the failed reclaim through May removed the bullish case until structure shifts back in favor of buyers.
The Flip: The $87 macro floor has flipped into resistance after a clean break and rejected retest — bulls now need to reclaim this level on a daily close before any reversal scenario becomes valid.
The Continuation: Price is compressing against the $75 immediate reaction zone with momentum still pointing lower — every bounce inside this structure remains a short opportunity into the flipped resistance overhead.
The Roadmap: Primary target sits at $68 — a clean break of $75 unlocks the macro demand pocket where 2025 buyers stepped in. Invalidation: a sustained 1D close back above $87 would invalidate this bearish thesis and reopen the door to a retest of the $100 supply.
AAVE's four-month range between $87 and $130 has resolved to the downside. The May bullish reclaim attempt was rejected cleanly at the $100 decision zone, and the $87 macro floor broke on a sustained close in late May. What held as the structural base of the prior consolidation has now flipped into resistance — the failed retest near $90 sealed the level's role reversal, and price has carved a fresh leg of lower highs and lower lows into the $75–$78 zone. RSI is driving into deep oversold below 30, flagging exhaustion in the move but not yet signaling reversal.
The Setup ⚙️
The Rejection: The $100 zone held as the ceiling of the prior range and now sits well above price — the failed reclaim through May removed the bullish case until structure shifts back in favor of buyers.
The Flip: The $87 macro floor has flipped into resistance after a clean break and rejected retest — bulls now need to reclaim this level on a daily close before any reversal scenario becomes valid.
The Continuation: Price is compressing against the $75 immediate reaction zone with momentum still pointing lower — every bounce inside this structure remains a short opportunity into the flipped resistance overhead.
The Roadmap: Primary target sits at $68 — a clean break of $75 unlocks the macro demand pocket where 2025 buyers stepped in. Invalidation: a sustained 1D close back above $87 would invalidate this bearish thesis and reopen the door to a retest of the $100 supply.
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📈 Stop guessing your settings — backtest & optimize with QuantPilot
🎁 Free to start
🎁 Free to start
Declinazione di responsabilità
Le informazioni e le pubblicazioni non sono intese come, e non costituiscono, consulenza o raccomandazioni finanziarie, di investimento, di trading o di altro tipo fornite o approvate da TradingView. Per ulteriori informazioni, consultare i Termini di utilizzo.