AUD/USD continues surging on risk-on revival ahead of China GDP

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AUD/USD is pushing higher ahead of Thursday's China data dump. With Middle East tensions easing and the US dollar softening, we break down the short-term setups and map out a medium-term reversal zone.

Key topics covered
  • China GDP: Markets expect Q1 growth to accelerate to 4.8% YOY. A strong print would support the Aussie.
  • Risk-on recovery: Easing geopolitical tensions have pushed the S&P 500 above pre-war levels, suggesting a broader recovery.
  • The 0.7250 cluster: Price is targeting a technical wall combining the 61.8% Fibonacci (0.7217), the upper channel resistance, and a broadening pattern top.

AUD/USD scenarios & trade plan
  • Bullish (Short-term): If China data hits or beats 4.8%, traders may look for short-term longs targeting the 0.7188 peak and the 0.7217 - 0.7250 zone.
  • Bearish (Medium-term): Watch for a spike into the 0.7200 - 0.7250 cluster. If we see wicky rejections and daily RSI divergence, the bias flips. Traders may fade the strength for a drop back to the mid-channel or the 0.6830 base.

Are you buying the Aussie into the China data or waiting to short the resistance? Share your thoughts in the comments.

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