US Tariffs & Trade Wars
Updated May 2026 · All figures from current market research
Avg. effective tariff rate
11.8%
Up from 2.5% in Jan 2025
Peak tariff rate (China)
145%
April 2025 peak
IEEPA tariffs collected
$166B
Later ruled unconstitutional
USD decline (2025)
−10%
Dollar Index (DXY)
----------------------------------------------Key policy events------------------------------------------
Updated May 2026 · All figures from current market research
Avg. effective tariff rate
11.8%
Up from 2.5% in Jan 2025
Peak tariff rate (China)
145%
April 2025 peak
IEEPA tariffs collected
$166B
Later ruled unconstitutional
USD decline (2025)
−10%
Dollar Index (DXY)
----------------------------------------------Key policy events------------------------------------------
- Jan – Mar 2025
- 25% tariffs on Canada & Mexico goods; 25% on all steel & aluminum globally, eliminating prior exemptions.
- Apr 2, 2025 — "Liberation Day"
- Blanket 10% tariff on all imports from ~180 countries; country-specific "reciprocal" rates up to 49%. Triggered a global stock market crash; S&P 500 fell below 5,000.
Apr 9, 2025 - 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs for all countries except China. S&P 500 surged 9.5% in a single day — largest gain since 2008. China's rate raised to 145%.
Mid-2025 - Steel & aluminum tariffs raised to 50%. Trade deal frameworks reached with EU, Japan, South Korea, and a US-China truce.
Feb 2026 - Supreme Court ruled IEEPA tariffs unconstitutional. Trump announced new 10% global tariff under Section 122 for 150 days.
----------------------------------------------Market & asset class impact-----------------------------
Equities
S&P 500 fell 10% in two days post-Liberation Day. Tech, basic materials, and energy hit hardest (−7% to −9%). Partial recovery followed each pause announcement. J.P. Morgan targets S&P range of 5,200–5,800.
US Dollar
Dollar depreciated on Liberation Day — contrary to standard theory. Foreign investors reallocated away from US equities. DXY down ~10% for 2025. Central banks globally accelerated gold purchases as dollar alternatives.
Commodities
Gold rose as a safe haven. WTI oil fell on global demand concerns. Steel & aluminum prices elevated due to import restrictions. Agricultural commodities hurt by retaliatory tariffs on US exports.
Fixed Income
US Treasury 10-year yields initially fell, then rose sharply post-Liberation Day (bond vigilantism). Concerns over Fed independence added pressure. BlackRock & others remain underweight long-duration Treasuries.
--------------------------------------------Key risks & watch points----------------------------------
Policy unpredictability
Critical
Tariff rates can change within hours. The Trade Policy Uncertainty Index skyrocketed in 2025. Companies face near-impossible demand forecasting conditions. Any escalation with EU or China is a major risk trigger.
Inflationary pressure
Elevated
US firms absorbed ~60% of tariff costs in 2025; pass-through to consumers is accelerating. Core inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target. Fed has limited room to cut rates to provide stimulus.
Supply chain re-routing
Structural shift
US imports from China near 2001 levels. Vietnam, India, Mexico, and Eastern Europe emerging as alternative sourcing hubs. Regional supply chains could account for 50% of global trade by 2030 (BCG). Efficiency losses are long-term.
Hye Guys,Welcome to a professional trading journey built on precision, discipline, and smart money concepts.
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📞 Phone: +91 93159 78955
💬 WhatsApp: wa.link/kdkejz
📩 Contact Mail: globalwolfstreet@gmail.com
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Hye Guys,Welcome to a professional trading journey built on precision, discipline, and smart money concepts.
📞 Phone: +91 93159 78955
💬 WhatsApp: wa.link/kdkejz
📩 Contact Mail: globalwolfstreet@gmail.com
📞 Phone: +91 93159 78955
💬 WhatsApp: wa.link/kdkejz
📩 Contact Mail: globalwolfstreet@gmail.com
Pubblicazioni correlate
Declinazione di responsabilità
Le informazioni e le pubblicazioni non sono intese come, e non costituiscono, consulenza o raccomandazioni finanziarie, di investimento, di trading o di altro tipo fornite o approvate da TradingView. Per ulteriori informazioni, consultare i Termini di utilizzo.