New week! Time for another weekly BTC breakdown.
1. Key Macro Events This Week
• Tuesday (Jul 7)
SpaceX is expected to be added to the Nasdaq-100 before the market opens.
US ADP Employment Change will be released at 20:15.
US Trade Balance follows at 20:30.
• Thursday (Jul 9)
The FOMC Minutes will be released at 02:00, providing more insight into the Fed's rate path and inflation outlook.
Initial Jobless Claims will be released at 20:30.
• Friday (Jul 10)
SK Hynix ADR is tentatively scheduled to begin trading on the Nasdaq.
Overall, this week's macro focus will be on the FOMC Minutes, comments from Fed officials, and several major equity-related events, all of which could increase market volatility.
2. BTC Market Analysis
Last week I shared both a BTC long and a BTC short.
As BTC rebounded toward 64k, the long trade delivered solid profits.
Unfortunately, the short position was forced out after securing +1R due to a sharp liquidity-driven move following Monday's CME open. The market then continued lower exactly as expected.
Current Setup
As shown on the chart, BTC rejected the resistance zone highlighted in last week's analysis.
From a harmonic pattern, price has also completed a bearish Shark pattern.
With the short thesis now played out, my focus this week shifts toward buying the dip.
I'm watching two potential long setups:
A strong reaction from the 61k S/R zone.
A liquidity sweep below 59.5k, followed by a bullish reclaim.
On the HTF, there's still a significant amount of buy-side liquidity resting above 65k and 67k.
At the same time, both the daily and weekly charts are showing the potential for bullish divergence.
From my perspective, the downside no longer offers attractive risk-to-reward, so I'd rather focus on long opportunities during this rebound.
As for shorts, I'll wait until liquidity above 67k has been cleared before looking for new entries.
Trading Plan:
BTC Long
Entry: 61.0k–60.6k
SL: 59.8k
TP1: 65k
TP2: 67k
If this setup gets stopped out, I'll wait for price to sweep the 59.5k low and test the 59k nFVG before considering another long.
BTC Long (Confirmation Required)
Entry: 59k
SL: 58k
TP1: 65k
TP2: 67k
3. Final Thoughts
BTC is currently rebounding on the H4 timeframe, with the potential for that move to develop into a daily timeframe recovery.
For now, my priority is to look for high-probability long setups during the rebound.
I'll only consider new short positions after buy-side liquidity above 67k has been swept and price shows a clear bearish reaction.
1. Key Macro Events This Week
• Tuesday (Jul 7)
SpaceX is expected to be added to the Nasdaq-100 before the market opens.
US ADP Employment Change will be released at 20:15.
US Trade Balance follows at 20:30.
• Thursday (Jul 9)
The FOMC Minutes will be released at 02:00, providing more insight into the Fed's rate path and inflation outlook.
Initial Jobless Claims will be released at 20:30.
• Friday (Jul 10)
SK Hynix ADR is tentatively scheduled to begin trading on the Nasdaq.
Overall, this week's macro focus will be on the FOMC Minutes, comments from Fed officials, and several major equity-related events, all of which could increase market volatility.
2. BTC Market Analysis
Last week I shared both a BTC long and a BTC short.
As BTC rebounded toward 64k, the long trade delivered solid profits.
Unfortunately, the short position was forced out after securing +1R due to a sharp liquidity-driven move following Monday's CME open. The market then continued lower exactly as expected.
Current Setup
As shown on the chart, BTC rejected the resistance zone highlighted in last week's analysis.
From a harmonic pattern, price has also completed a bearish Shark pattern.
With the short thesis now played out, my focus this week shifts toward buying the dip.
I'm watching two potential long setups:
A strong reaction from the 61k S/R zone.
A liquidity sweep below 59.5k, followed by a bullish reclaim.
On the HTF, there's still a significant amount of buy-side liquidity resting above 65k and 67k.
At the same time, both the daily and weekly charts are showing the potential for bullish divergence.
From my perspective, the downside no longer offers attractive risk-to-reward, so I'd rather focus on long opportunities during this rebound.
As for shorts, I'll wait until liquidity above 67k has been cleared before looking for new entries.
Trading Plan:
BTC Long
Entry: 61.0k–60.6k
SL: 59.8k
TP1: 65k
TP2: 67k
If this setup gets stopped out, I'll wait for price to sweep the 59.5k low and test the 59k nFVG before considering another long.
BTC Long (Confirmation Required)
Entry: 59k
SL: 58k
TP1: 65k
TP2: 67k
3. Final Thoughts
BTC is currently rebounding on the H4 timeframe, with the potential for that move to develop into a daily timeframe recovery.
For now, my priority is to look for high-probability long setups during the rebound.
I'll only consider new short positions after buy-side liquidity above 67k has been swept and price shows a clear bearish reaction.
Declinazione di responsabilità
Le informazioni e le pubblicazioni non sono intese come, e non costituiscono, consulenza o raccomandazioni finanziarie, di investimento, di trading o di altro tipo fornite o approvate da TradingView. Per ulteriori informazioni, consultare i Termini di utilizzo.
Declinazione di responsabilità
Le informazioni e le pubblicazioni non sono intese come, e non costituiscono, consulenza o raccomandazioni finanziarie, di investimento, di trading o di altro tipo fornite o approvate da TradingView. Per ulteriori informazioni, consultare i Termini di utilizzo.