Context
On H4, Bitcoin has been trading inside the 79,800 – 84,360 range since 08/10. Yesterday afternoon (21/10) a strong bullish H4 candle finally pushed above the range top, swept the equal highs of 11/10 – 14/10 and reached 84,906. The move did not hold: the last H4 candle of the day closed back inside the range at 84,093.
Current structure
Overnight a strong bearish H4 candle dropped from 84,093 to 82,677 and left a bearish FVG between 82,999 and 84,062. Since then BTC has printed four lower highs and lower lows in a row, lost the 83,000 – 83,260 support and filled the 20/10 bullish FVG down to 81,631, leaving a smaller bearish FVG at 82,280 – 82,680 on the way. Price is now trading around 81,650, on the 81,180 – 81,660 support where the 20/10 rally started. Below it, sell-side liquidity rests under the equal lows of 16/10 – 18/10 at 80,670 – 80,810. The current H4 candle has not closed yet.
Key levels
🔴 84,360 – 84,900: range top, failed breakout of 21/10
🔴 83,000 – 83,260: resistance, former support and lower edge of the overnight FVG
⚪ 82,280 – 82,680: bearish FVG of this morning
🟢 81,180 – 81,660: support, origin of the 20/10 rally
⚪ 80,670 – 80,810: liquidity below the equal lows of 16/10 – 18/10 / target
⚪ 79,800 – 80,220: range base / target
Scenarios
🔴 Bearish: a bounce stalls inside the 82,280 – 82,680 FVG, then an H4 close below 81,180 → the liquidity at 80,670 – 80,810 is taken and price extends toward the range base at 79,800 – 80,220. Invalidation: H4 close above 82,680.
🟢 Bullish: the 81,180 – 81,660 support holds, possibly after a quick sweep below 81,180 that closes back inside, then an H4 close above 82,680 → move back toward 83,000 – 83,260. Invalidation: H4 close below 81,180.
Summary
Yesterday's push above 84,360 turned into a false breakout and BTC has given back the whole move, falling to the support where the 20/10 rally began. An H4 close below 81,180 would open the way to 80,670 – 80,810 and then 79,800 – 80,220; holding the support and reclaiming 82,680 would point back to 83,000 – 83,260.
Educational analysis only, not investment advice.
On H4, Bitcoin has been trading inside the 79,800 – 84,360 range since 08/10. Yesterday afternoon (21/10) a strong bullish H4 candle finally pushed above the range top, swept the equal highs of 11/10 – 14/10 and reached 84,906. The move did not hold: the last H4 candle of the day closed back inside the range at 84,093.
Current structure
Overnight a strong bearish H4 candle dropped from 84,093 to 82,677 and left a bearish FVG between 82,999 and 84,062. Since then BTC has printed four lower highs and lower lows in a row, lost the 83,000 – 83,260 support and filled the 20/10 bullish FVG down to 81,631, leaving a smaller bearish FVG at 82,280 – 82,680 on the way. Price is now trading around 81,650, on the 81,180 – 81,660 support where the 20/10 rally started. Below it, sell-side liquidity rests under the equal lows of 16/10 – 18/10 at 80,670 – 80,810. The current H4 candle has not closed yet.
Key levels
🔴 84,360 – 84,900: range top, failed breakout of 21/10
🔴 83,000 – 83,260: resistance, former support and lower edge of the overnight FVG
⚪ 82,280 – 82,680: bearish FVG of this morning
🟢 81,180 – 81,660: support, origin of the 20/10 rally
⚪ 80,670 – 80,810: liquidity below the equal lows of 16/10 – 18/10 / target
⚪ 79,800 – 80,220: range base / target
Scenarios
🔴 Bearish: a bounce stalls inside the 82,280 – 82,680 FVG, then an H4 close below 81,180 → the liquidity at 80,670 – 80,810 is taken and price extends toward the range base at 79,800 – 80,220. Invalidation: H4 close above 82,680.
🟢 Bullish: the 81,180 – 81,660 support holds, possibly after a quick sweep below 81,180 that closes back inside, then an H4 close above 82,680 → move back toward 83,000 – 83,260. Invalidation: H4 close below 81,180.
Summary
Yesterday's push above 84,360 turned into a false breakout and BTC has given back the whole move, falling to the support where the 20/10 rally began. An H4 close below 81,180 would open the way to 80,670 – 80,810 and then 79,800 – 80,220; holding the support and reclaiming 82,680 would point back to 83,000 – 83,260.
Educational analysis only, not investment advice.
4 years trading, 4 years of mistakes. I built LossLens: a journal that shows why you lose, trade by trade. MT4/MT5.
👉 losslens.app
👉 losslens.app
Declinazione di responsabilità
Le informazioni e le pubblicazioni non sono intese come, e non costituiscono, consulenza o raccomandazioni finanziarie, di investimento, di trading o di altro tipo fornite o approvate da TradingView. Per ulteriori informazioni, consultare i Termini di utilizzo.
4 years trading, 4 years of mistakes. I built LossLens: a journal that shows why you lose, trade by trade. MT4/MT5.
👉 losslens.app
👉 losslens.app
Declinazione di responsabilità
Le informazioni e le pubblicazioni non sono intese come, e non costituiscono, consulenza o raccomandazioni finanziarie, di investimento, di trading o di altro tipo fornite o approvate da TradingView. Per ulteriori informazioni, consultare i Termini di utilizzo.