BTC is trading at 64,551 and has been ranging between 64,400 and 65,100 since reaching the 65,100 high. On the 4H chart, the trend has recovered from the 62,350 low and is now approaching the 65,000-65,200 resistance zone, where the MACD is beginning to flatten. On the 1H and 15M timeframes, momentum is turning bearish. The latest pullback from 65,100 was met with weak buying interest, while the 5M MACD has turned clearly bearish. In the short term, a test of the 64,400 support appears likely. If that level holds, the range structure remains intact. If it breaks, the path opens toward 63,600. The broader weekly bear market remains the dominant backdrop, meaning any long setup should be viewed as a range trade rather than the start of a new bullish trend.
## Scenario 1 – Primary
**Range Resistance Holds – Move Toward 63,600**
**Probability:** 54%
Short-term momentum on the 15M and 5M charts is bearish. If price fails again below 64,900 and breaks beneath 64,400, the relatively thin price zone opens the way toward the 63,600 liquidity magnet.
**① Entry**
Short on a retest of 64,500-64,600 after the break below 64,400, or enter below 64,380.
**② Trigger**
A 1H candle close below 64,400 followed by continued weakness.
**Stop**
64,950 (above the local resistance).
**Targets**
* **T1:** 64,000
* **T2:** 63,600 ✦
* **T3:** 63,200
**Invalidation:**
A reclaim and 1H candle close above 64,950 invalidates the short setup and activates Scenario 2 (long toward 65,100).
---
## Scenario 2 – Alternative
**Range Support Holds – Breakout Toward 65,100**
**Probability:** 46%
If 64,400 holds as support and the 15M momentum turns bullish again, another attempt toward the 65,100 liquidity magnet becomes likely. A breakout above that level could trigger short liquidations and open the path toward 65,500.
**① Entry**
Long at 64,450-64,550 from range support, or on a breakout above 65,150.
**② Trigger**
A 15M bounce above 64,700 with a bullish MACD crossover, or a 1H candle close above 65,100.
**Stop**
64,280 (below range support).
**Targets**
* **T1:** 64,900
* **T2:** 65,100
* **T3:** 65,500
**Invalidation:**
A 1H candle close below 64,400 invalidates the long setup and shifts the outlook back to Scenario 1 (short toward 63,600).
---
Probabilities are subjective technical assessments and not guarantees. Triggers outweigh opinions—only trade after confirmation. This is not financial advice. Always apply your own risk management.
## Scenario 1 – Primary
**Range Resistance Holds – Move Toward 63,600**
**Probability:** 54%
Short-term momentum on the 15M and 5M charts is bearish. If price fails again below 64,900 and breaks beneath 64,400, the relatively thin price zone opens the way toward the 63,600 liquidity magnet.
**① Entry**
Short on a retest of 64,500-64,600 after the break below 64,400, or enter below 64,380.
**② Trigger**
A 1H candle close below 64,400 followed by continued weakness.
**Stop**
64,950 (above the local resistance).
**Targets**
* **T1:** 64,000
* **T2:** 63,600 ✦
* **T3:** 63,200
**Invalidation:**
A reclaim and 1H candle close above 64,950 invalidates the short setup and activates Scenario 2 (long toward 65,100).
---
## Scenario 2 – Alternative
**Range Support Holds – Breakout Toward 65,100**
**Probability:** 46%
If 64,400 holds as support and the 15M momentum turns bullish again, another attempt toward the 65,100 liquidity magnet becomes likely. A breakout above that level could trigger short liquidations and open the path toward 65,500.
**① Entry**
Long at 64,450-64,550 from range support, or on a breakout above 65,150.
**② Trigger**
A 15M bounce above 64,700 with a bullish MACD crossover, or a 1H candle close above 65,100.
**Stop**
64,280 (below range support).
**Targets**
* **T1:** 64,900
* **T2:** 65,100
* **T3:** 65,500
**Invalidation:**
A 1H candle close below 64,400 invalidates the long setup and shifts the outlook back to Scenario 1 (short toward 63,600).
---
Probabilities are subjective technical assessments and not guarantees. Triggers outweigh opinions—only trade after confirmation. This is not financial advice. Always apply your own risk management.
Declinazione di responsabilità
Le informazioni e le pubblicazioni non sono intese come, e non costituiscono, consulenza o raccomandazioni finanziarie, di investimento, di trading o di altro tipo fornite o approvate da TradingView. Per ulteriori informazioni, consultare i Termini di utilizzo.
Declinazione di responsabilità
Le informazioni e le pubblicazioni non sono intese come, e non costituiscono, consulenza o raccomandazioni finanziarie, di investimento, di trading o di altro tipo fornite o approvate da TradingView. Per ulteriori informazioni, consultare i Termini di utilizzo.