Market Context
CAD is a risk-on currency and CHF is a classic safe-haven. For CAD/CHF to sustain a bullish move, broader risk appetite needs to remain supportive. The daily chart shows a strong uptrend from the February lows, with price recovering cleanly through all major fibonacci retracement levels. The trend structure on the daily is firmly bullish with higher highs and higher lows intact all the way from March through September.
However, price is now pressing against a significant resistance zone that has been a ceiling multiple times historically, and the daily RSI is showing a bearish divergence - price made a new high but RSI printed a lower high. That is the key warning on the higher timeframe.
What the 1H Chart Shows
After a strong push to the 0.5904 area, price has pulled back and is now consolidating in a tight range around 0.5877-0.5881. The pink shaded zone above is the entry/resistance area, and the green shaded zone below is where the short setup triggers.
The 1H RSI is at 48/42, both below 50 and declining. This confirms bearish momentum is building on the short-term timeframe. The MAs on the 1H have all turned downward and price is trading below them, which adds to the short bias.
The setup on the 1H is a short trade from the current resistance zone, with the daily divergence providing the higher timeframe confluence.
There is no bullish divergence on the 1H to suggest an immediate bounce. RSI is simply falling, consistent with price weakness.
Trade Plan - CAD/CHF Short
Bias: Short from resistance, counter to the larger daily uptrend. Reduced position size applies.
Entry Zone: 0.58800 - 0.58869 (the pink resistance zone on the 1H chart). Wait for price to retest this zone and print a bearish candle close - shooting star, bearish engulfing, or similar. No candle confirmation, no entry.
Stop Loss: Above 0.58950, which clears the resistance zone and the recent swing high. A close above here invalidates the short.
Targets:
TP1: 0.58668 - first support, take majority off here
TP2: 0.58564 - second support level, close more
TP3: 0.58456 - maximum target, aligns with the yellow demand zone on the daily. Do not hold below this.
Risk/Reward: Entry at 0.58830, stop at 0.58950 gives roughly 12 pip risk. TP1 at 0.58668 gives 16 pips, TP2 gives 27 pips, TP3 gives 37 pips. Clean structure with progressive targets.
Key Risks
Any positive risk-on catalyst (commodity rally, oil spike) will strengthen CAD and kill the short
CHF can weaken on SNB intervention or dovish comments, which would also hurt this trade
The daily trend is still bullish, so this is a short against the grain. If price reclaims 0.5890 on a 1H close, exit immediately
The yellow demand zone on the daily around 0.5832-0.5840 is strong support. Do not expect price to blow through it on the first attempt.
Bottom line: Short from the 0.5880-0.5887 zone on bearish candle confirmation. Daily divergence supports the move. Take most profit at TP1 and trail the rest. This is a pullback trade within a bullish daily structure, not a trend reversal.
CAD is a risk-on currency and CHF is a classic safe-haven. For CAD/CHF to sustain a bullish move, broader risk appetite needs to remain supportive. The daily chart shows a strong uptrend from the February lows, with price recovering cleanly through all major fibonacci retracement levels. The trend structure on the daily is firmly bullish with higher highs and higher lows intact all the way from March through September.
However, price is now pressing against a significant resistance zone that has been a ceiling multiple times historically, and the daily RSI is showing a bearish divergence - price made a new high but RSI printed a lower high. That is the key warning on the higher timeframe.
What the 1H Chart Shows
After a strong push to the 0.5904 area, price has pulled back and is now consolidating in a tight range around 0.5877-0.5881. The pink shaded zone above is the entry/resistance area, and the green shaded zone below is where the short setup triggers.
The 1H RSI is at 48/42, both below 50 and declining. This confirms bearish momentum is building on the short-term timeframe. The MAs on the 1H have all turned downward and price is trading below them, which adds to the short bias.
The setup on the 1H is a short trade from the current resistance zone, with the daily divergence providing the higher timeframe confluence.
There is no bullish divergence on the 1H to suggest an immediate bounce. RSI is simply falling, consistent with price weakness.
Trade Plan - CAD/CHF Short
Bias: Short from resistance, counter to the larger daily uptrend. Reduced position size applies.
Entry Zone: 0.58800 - 0.58869 (the pink resistance zone on the 1H chart). Wait for price to retest this zone and print a bearish candle close - shooting star, bearish engulfing, or similar. No candle confirmation, no entry.
Stop Loss: Above 0.58950, which clears the resistance zone and the recent swing high. A close above here invalidates the short.
Targets:
TP1: 0.58668 - first support, take majority off here
TP2: 0.58564 - second support level, close more
TP3: 0.58456 - maximum target, aligns with the yellow demand zone on the daily. Do not hold below this.
Risk/Reward: Entry at 0.58830, stop at 0.58950 gives roughly 12 pip risk. TP1 at 0.58668 gives 16 pips, TP2 gives 27 pips, TP3 gives 37 pips. Clean structure with progressive targets.
Key Risks
Any positive risk-on catalyst (commodity rally, oil spike) will strengthen CAD and kill the short
CHF can weaken on SNB intervention or dovish comments, which would also hurt this trade
The daily trend is still bullish, so this is a short against the grain. If price reclaims 0.5890 on a 1H close, exit immediately
The yellow demand zone on the daily around 0.5832-0.5840 is strong support. Do not expect price to blow through it on the first attempt.
Bottom line: Short from the 0.5880-0.5887 zone on bearish candle confirmation. Daily divergence supports the move. Take most profit at TP1 and trail the rest. This is a pullback trade within a bullish daily structure, not a trend reversal.
Trade chiuso: stop raggiunto
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Pubblicazioni correlate
Declinazione di responsabilità
Le informazioni e le pubblicazioni non sono intese come, e non costituiscono, consulenza o raccomandazioni finanziarie, di investimento, di trading o di altro tipo fornite o approvate da TradingView. Per ulteriori informazioni, consultare i Termini di utilizzo.