EURUSD starts the week near 1.1523, with the dollar still supported by Friday’s US labor surprise and by safe-haven demand linked to the Iran war and oil above $110. The key Friday catalyst was the March US jobs report on 03 Apr: nonfarm payrolls rose 178K versus roughly 60K expected, unemployment fell to 4.3%, and February was revised down to -133K, which keeps the Fed in “wait-and-see” mode rather than bringing rate cuts closer. For EURUSD in the short term, that report matters because it lifted U.S. yields and reinforced the dollar bid; however, wage growth was only 0.2% m/m and 3.5% y/y, so it was a strong headline report but not a clean inflationary shock. On the euro side, the backdrop is mixed: euro-zone inflation has surged back above the ECB’s 2% target and markets now see multiple ECB hikes this year, which is euro-supportive on rates. But the same Iran-war energy shock is also pushing up input costs and supply disruptions across Europe, which hurts the growth outlook and limits how bullish traders want to be on the euro.
Bottom line: Friday’s payrolls removed some immediate bearish pressure from the dollar, so EURUSD now trades between a stronger near-term Fed story and a potentially more hawkish ECB story that is partly offset by Europe’s growth vulnerability.
🟢 Bullish factors:
🔴 Bearish factors:
🎯 Expected targets: Slight bearish bias while below 1.1580–1.1600, with downside risk toward 1.1450–1.1400 first. If USD strength extends on the back of Friday’s payrolls and war-driven oil pressure, 1.1350 becomes the next likely zone. If post-NFP dollar strength fades and energy/geopolitical pressure eases, EURUSD can rebound toward 1.1620–1.1680. This target path is an inference based on the current spot area near 1.1523 and the latest Fed/ECB/oil backdrop.
Bottom line: Friday’s payrolls removed some immediate bearish pressure from the dollar, so EURUSD now trades between a stronger near-term Fed story and a potentially more hawkish ECB story that is partly offset by Europe’s growth vulnerability.
🟢 Bullish factors:
- Wage growth in the US jobs report stayed relatively contained at 0.2% m/m and 3.5% y/y, which softens the hawkish interpretation of the NFP beat.
- Euro-zone inflation has moved back above target, keeping ECB tightening expectations alive.
- Any de-escalation in the Middle East that pulls oil lower could reduce safe-haven USD demand and help EURUSD recover.
🔴 Bearish factors:
- Friday’s NFP was clearly stronger than expected: 178K jobs added, unemployment down to 4.3%, and the report reinforced the idea that the Fed can stay on hold.
- The Iran war and Hormuz disruption keep oil elevated and the dollar attractive as a defensive asset.
- Europe is being hit by higher energy costs, supply-chain stress, and weaker growth expectations, which is a direct headwind for the euro.
🎯 Expected targets: Slight bearish bias while below 1.1580–1.1600, with downside risk toward 1.1450–1.1400 first. If USD strength extends on the back of Friday’s payrolls and war-driven oil pressure, 1.1350 becomes the next likely zone. If post-NFP dollar strength fades and energy/geopolitical pressure eases, EURUSD can rebound toward 1.1620–1.1680. This target path is an inference based on the current spot area near 1.1523 and the latest Fed/ECB/oil backdrop.
Trade attivo
⚠️ Public market view only. Not financial advice. DYOR and manage your own risk.
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⚠️ Public market view only. Not financial advice. DYOR and manage your own risk.
Pubblicazioni correlate
Declinazione di responsabilità
Le informazioni e le pubblicazioni non sono intese come, e non costituiscono, consulenza o raccomandazioni finanziarie, di investimento, di trading o di altro tipo fornite o approvate da TradingView. Per ulteriori informazioni, consultare i Termini di utilizzo.