Euro / Dollaro
Long

EURUSD Major long-term bullish break-out. 1.1690 could be next.

1 319
As I've posted on my end-of-the-year EURUSD analysis, the pair was neutral on the 1D time-frame and had very structured targets in case of a break-out but more importantly OVERSOLD on the 1W time-frame and had clearly formed a bottom that favored a bullish break-out and instructed traders to act accordingly:

EURUSD 1D neutral, 1W oversold. Trade accordingly.


As it turned out, the bullish break-out happened and my short-term target of 1.1440 has already been achieved. In doing so, EURUSD broke above both the 1.13860 medium-term Resistance, closed above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since September 15 but more importantly, the Lower Highs trend-line that has been holding since June 01, the most recent High of the market.

Right now I see two possibilities on the short and long-term but overall I remain bullish:

1) There is a Channel Up since the November 24 Low, and today the price has hit the Higher Highs trend-line. As long as this pattern stands, it is likely to see a rejection and pull-back towards its bottom. If the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) holds, it will turn into the long-term Support that the pair needs in order to break above the 1W MA200 (red trend-line).

2) If the Channel Up breaks, the price will face the major Resistance of the 1W MA200 (red). A weekly close above it, will confirm a bullish break-out and shift to the long-term bias towards Resistance 1 at 1.1690 and the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which by that time should be around that level.

Among all these, notice how the 1W MACD is forming a Bullish Cross.



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