- Monday’s candlestick (Sept 9) was a bull bar closing near its high with a long tail below.
- In our last report, we stated that traders would observe whether the bears could form a strong retest of the August 29 low, or if the 20-day EMA would continue to act as support, and the market would close above the 20-day EMA instead.
- The market traded lower early in the day, but then reversed higher as the 20-day EMA acted as support.
- The bulls want the 20-day EMA and the bull trend line to act as support.
- They want the pullback to be weak and sideways, lacking follow-through selling, as has been the case with all recent pullbacks (Jul 1 and Aug 4).
- They want it to form a higher low (Aug 29) followed by a reversal from a double bottom bull flag (Aug 21 and Aug 29).
- They view the recent move (Sept 4) as a retest of the prior low, and want it to form a higher low (vs Aug 29).
- They must create follow-through buying above the 20-day EMA to increase the odds of a retest and a breakout above the August high.
- The bears want a reversal from a wedge pattern (June 20, July 24, and August 19), and a large double top bar flag with the February high.
- They view the current move as forming a small double top bear flag (Sept 3 and Sept 9).
- They need to create strong follow-through selling, trading below the 20-day EMA and the bear trend line to increase the odds of a sustained move.
- If the market trades higher, they want it to form a lower high or a double top (vs Aug 19).
- Production for Sept should be flat or down.
- Refineries' appetite to buy remains decent.
- Export: Sept: Seems like first 5 days +29% per ITS
- So far, the recent sideways to down pullback has formed a higher low (Aug 29). The 20-day EMA and bull trendline are currently acting as support.
- For tomorrow (Tuesday, Sept 9), traders will see if the bulls create strong follow-through buying over the next few days. If they can, the odds of a retest of the August high will increase.
- Or will the market trade slightly higher, but stall, forming long tails above candlesticks or bear bodies?
Andrew
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