GBPCAD is currently trading inside a very interesting higher timeframe premium zone, and in my opinion the current bullish move is starting to lose momentum exactly where institutional sellers could step back into the market.
From a technical perspective, I’m not interested in chasing longs at these levels. Instead, I’m looking for signs of exhaustion and potential distribution above 1.8550.
The zone between 1.8560 and 1.8620 remains the key area on my chart. This is where price previously reacted aggressively lower, leaving behind an inefficiency that has now been partially rebalanced. If sellers defend this area again, I believe GBPCAD could rotate back toward the range lows.
The latest COT data still shows strong institutional weakness on GBP:
Non-commercial traders remain heavily net short on the British Pound.
Meanwhile CAD positioning has started improving significantly, especially on the commercial side.
This divergence suggests that smart money is still favoring CAD strength over GBP strength.
Seasonality also supports downside pressure into late May and June:
GBP historically underperforms during this period.
CAD tends to remain relatively stronger during the same seasonal window.
At the same time, retail sentiment is extremely skewed:
Around 88% of retail traders are currently short GBPCAD.
That tells me one thing:
before the real move lower happens, the market could still attempt one final liquidity sweep higher into the imbalance zone to trap late sellers.
My preferred scenario:
Short-term push toward 1.8580–1.8620
Rejection from HTF supply
Expansion lower toward 1.8400 and potentially 1.8300
If bearish momentum accelerates, the larger swing objective sits around the 1.81 demand area.
From a technical perspective, I’m not interested in chasing longs at these levels. Instead, I’m looking for signs of exhaustion and potential distribution above 1.8550.
The zone between 1.8560 and 1.8620 remains the key area on my chart. This is where price previously reacted aggressively lower, leaving behind an inefficiency that has now been partially rebalanced. If sellers defend this area again, I believe GBPCAD could rotate back toward the range lows.
The latest COT data still shows strong institutional weakness on GBP:
Non-commercial traders remain heavily net short on the British Pound.
Meanwhile CAD positioning has started improving significantly, especially on the commercial side.
This divergence suggests that smart money is still favoring CAD strength over GBP strength.
Seasonality also supports downside pressure into late May and June:
GBP historically underperforms during this period.
CAD tends to remain relatively stronger during the same seasonal window.
At the same time, retail sentiment is extremely skewed:
Around 88% of retail traders are currently short GBPCAD.
That tells me one thing:
before the real move lower happens, the market could still attempt one final liquidity sweep higher into the imbalance zone to trap late sellers.
My preferred scenario:
Short-term push toward 1.8580–1.8620
Rejection from HTF supply
Expansion lower toward 1.8400 and potentially 1.8300
If bearish momentum accelerates, the larger swing objective sits around the 1.81 demand area.
Nicola Capiotto | EdgeTradingJourney
I document my trading around work and triathlon.
I document my trading around work and triathlon.
Declinazione di responsabilità
Le informazioni e le pubblicazioni non sono intese come, e non costituiscono, consulenza o raccomandazioni finanziarie, di investimento, di trading o di altro tipo fornite o approvate da TradingView. Per ulteriori informazioni, consultare i Termini di utilizzo.
Nicola Capiotto | EdgeTradingJourney
I document my trading around work and triathlon.
I document my trading around work and triathlon.
Declinazione di responsabilità
Le informazioni e le pubblicazioni non sono intese come, e non costituiscono, consulenza o raccomandazioni finanziarie, di investimento, di trading o di altro tipo fornite o approvate da TradingView. Per ulteriori informazioni, consultare i Termini di utilizzo.