GBPUSD has had a very strong move this year, rallying from the January low at 1.21 up to 1.38 — roughly a 1700-pip move. Over the last couple of months price has been topping out, and in recent weeks we’ve started to see a breakdown and retracement of that entire leg up.
On the Monthly chart, the 50% and 61.8% retracement levels are sitting right around the 1.295 – 1.27 area. This also lines up with the April buy zone, which was the origin of the move up to 1.38. This is the area I’ll be interested in for re-entry on the long side.
Zooming into the Weekly chart, last week we finally got a clean break and close below 1.325 support. Price dropped straight down and closed at 1.315, and this week continued lower into the 1.30 round number, where we’re now seeing a bit of reaction.
Based on structure, it looks likely that price will continue down into the 1.295 – 1.27 buy zone in the coming weeks.
On the 8H chart, the MACD has crossed bullish, so there’s a chance we see a short-term bounce first. This could easily be a fake-out move lower followed by a push up into 1.315, possibly even 1.325 depending on how the BOE meeting plays out.
More hawkish tone → likely bounce up into 1.315 – 1.325
More dovish tone → fast drop straight into the buy zone
I’ll be watching price action closely leading into the decision.
Let me know your thoughts below.
On the Monthly chart, the 50% and 61.8% retracement levels are sitting right around the 1.295 – 1.27 area. This also lines up with the April buy zone, which was the origin of the move up to 1.38. This is the area I’ll be interested in for re-entry on the long side.
Zooming into the Weekly chart, last week we finally got a clean break and close below 1.325 support. Price dropped straight down and closed at 1.315, and this week continued lower into the 1.30 round number, where we’re now seeing a bit of reaction.
Based on structure, it looks likely that price will continue down into the 1.295 – 1.27 buy zone in the coming weeks.
On the 8H chart, the MACD has crossed bullish, so there’s a chance we see a short-term bounce first. This could easily be a fake-out move lower followed by a push up into 1.315, possibly even 1.325 depending on how the BOE meeting plays out.
More hawkish tone → likely bounce up into 1.315 – 1.325
More dovish tone → fast drop straight into the buy zone
I’ll be watching price action closely leading into the decision.
Let me know your thoughts below.
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Declinazione di responsabilità
Le informazioni e le pubblicazioni non sono intese come, e non costituiscono, consulenza o raccomandazioni finanziarie, di investimento, di trading o di altro tipo fornite o approvate da TradingView. Per ulteriori informazioni, consultare i Termini di utilizzo.