# 🟡 XAU/USD (Gold CFD) – Weekly Opening Outlook | SMC Perspective
**Date:** 2025/08/17
**Timeframe:** 45M (Heikin Ashi)
**Methodology:** Smart Money Concept (SMC)
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## 📊 Market Context
Gold closed the previous week under heavy liquidity grabs after multiple **CHOCH** and **BOS** structures. The current market is positioned around **3,335**, balancing between two potential phases:
1. **Phase 1 (Bullish Recovery)**
2. **Phase 2 (Bearish Continuation)**
Both phases are mapped on the chart with clear structural references.
---
## 🔵 Forecast Phase 1 – Bullish Scenario
1. **Key Levels:**
- **Immediate Demand Zone:** 3,330 – 3,335
- **Equilibrium Reaction Zone:** 3,350 – 3,360
- **Liquidity Pool:** 3,380 – 3,390
2. **Conditions for Validation:**
- Price must hold the **discount demand zone** (PDI).
- A strong **CHOCH → BOS** sequence from current level.
- Break and close above **3,350 equilibrium**.
3. **Expected Move:**
- Push towards **previous PDH** and sweep above **3,370 – 3,380**.
- Potential continuation into **EQH (3,390 – 3,400)** liquidity zone.
4. **Targets:**
- 🎯 TP1: **3,350** (equilibrium retest)
- 🎯 TP2: **3,370 – 3,380**
- 🎯 TP3: **3,390 – 3,400** (EQH / liquidity sweep)
5. **Invalidation:**
- Closing candles below **3,330 demand zone** will weaken bullish outlook.
---
## 🔴 Forecast Phase 2 – Bearish Scenario
1. **Key Levels:**
- **Discount Zone:** 3,320 – 3,325
- **Major Demand Zone:** 3,300 – 3,280
- **Extended Liquidity Pool:** 3,260 – 3,250
2. **Conditions for Validation:**
- Failure to hold above **3,335 – 3,330**.
- Clear rejection at equilibrium levels (**3,350 – 3,360**).
- A new **BOS** towards the downside.
3. **Expected Move:**
- Market could unfold in 5-leg structure (as shown on chart: ① → ⑤).
- First rejection around **3,335 – 3,340**, followed by extension towards **3,310 – 3,280**.
- Final liquidity sweep possible into **3,260 – 3,250 zone**.
4. **Targets:**
- 🎯 TP1: **3,320 – 3,325**
- 🎯 TP2: **3,300 – 3,280**
- 🎯 TP3: **3,260 – 3,250**
5. **Invalidation:**
- A confirmed **bullish CHOCH** above **3,350 equilibrium** invalidates the bearish scenario.
---
## ⚖️ Summary
- **Phase 1 (Bullish):** Possible rebound from current demand towards **3,390 – 3,400** liquidity.
- **Phase 2 (Bearish):** Failure at equilibrium may trigger deeper continuation into **3,280 – 3,250 demand**.
Traders should monitor **CHOCH / BOS confirmations** closely before positioning.
---
#XAUUSD #Gold #SMC #CHOCH #BOS #Liquidity #FVG #TradingView
**Date:** 2025/08/17
**Timeframe:** 45M (Heikin Ashi)
**Methodology:** Smart Money Concept (SMC)
---
## 📊 Market Context
Gold closed the previous week under heavy liquidity grabs after multiple **CHOCH** and **BOS** structures. The current market is positioned around **3,335**, balancing between two potential phases:
1. **Phase 1 (Bullish Recovery)**
2. **Phase 2 (Bearish Continuation)**
Both phases are mapped on the chart with clear structural references.
---
## 🔵 Forecast Phase 1 – Bullish Scenario
1. **Key Levels:**
- **Immediate Demand Zone:** 3,330 – 3,335
- **Equilibrium Reaction Zone:** 3,350 – 3,360
- **Liquidity Pool:** 3,380 – 3,390
2. **Conditions for Validation:**
- Price must hold the **discount demand zone** (PDI).
- A strong **CHOCH → BOS** sequence from current level.
- Break and close above **3,350 equilibrium**.
3. **Expected Move:**
- Push towards **previous PDH** and sweep above **3,370 – 3,380**.
- Potential continuation into **EQH (3,390 – 3,400)** liquidity zone.
4. **Targets:**
- 🎯 TP1: **3,350** (equilibrium retest)
- 🎯 TP2: **3,370 – 3,380**
- 🎯 TP3: **3,390 – 3,400** (EQH / liquidity sweep)
5. **Invalidation:**
- Closing candles below **3,330 demand zone** will weaken bullish outlook.
---
## 🔴 Forecast Phase 2 – Bearish Scenario
1. **Key Levels:**
- **Discount Zone:** 3,320 – 3,325
- **Major Demand Zone:** 3,300 – 3,280
- **Extended Liquidity Pool:** 3,260 – 3,250
2. **Conditions for Validation:**
- Failure to hold above **3,335 – 3,330**.
- Clear rejection at equilibrium levels (**3,350 – 3,360**).
- A new **BOS** towards the downside.
3. **Expected Move:**
- Market could unfold in 5-leg structure (as shown on chart: ① → ⑤).
- First rejection around **3,335 – 3,340**, followed by extension towards **3,310 – 3,280**.
- Final liquidity sweep possible into **3,260 – 3,250 zone**.
4. **Targets:**
- 🎯 TP1: **3,320 – 3,325**
- 🎯 TP2: **3,300 – 3,280**
- 🎯 TP3: **3,260 – 3,250**
5. **Invalidation:**
- A confirmed **bullish CHOCH** above **3,350 equilibrium** invalidates the bearish scenario.
---
## ⚖️ Summary
- **Phase 1 (Bullish):** Possible rebound from current demand towards **3,390 – 3,400** liquidity.
- **Phase 2 (Bearish):** Failure at equilibrium may trigger deeper continuation into **3,280 – 3,250 demand**.
Traders should monitor **CHOCH / BOS confirmations** closely before positioning.
---
#XAUUSD #Gold #SMC #CHOCH #BOS #Liquidity #FVG #TradingView
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Declinazione di responsabilità
Le informazioni e le pubblicazioni non sono intese come, e non costituiscono, consulenza o raccomandazioni finanziarie, di investimento, di trading o di altro tipo fornite o approvate da TradingView. Per ulteriori informazioni, consultare i Termini di utilizzo.