Setup: HTF 4h chart shows a clear uptrend from ~5.50 to current 6.47+, with the most recent impulse leg beginning May 5 out of the ~5.84 lows — a clean higher-low structure. The May 11 session opened near 6.33, gapped through 6.37-6.39 resistance on expanding volume (~4-6k contracts per bar), and pushed to 6.509 intraday highs before consolidating in a tight range between 6.45-6.48. Current price is digesting the morning breakout leg, holding above the prior breakout shelf near 6.39-6.40. The last several 1h bars show narrow-range doji/inside action with declining volume — classic pause-not-reversal behavior after a momentum bar.
Flow: Broad commodity tape is sharply bullish today with silver, natgas, platinum, and crude all posting outsized gains — copper is participating as the industrial bellwether rather than as a laggard. The +2.83% move on elevated volume while equities (ES/NQ) barely hold green points to commodity-specific demand. COT positioning shows non-commercials net long ~62,849 contracts with a modest WoW increase, not yet at exhaustion extremes. DXY flat removes the FX headwind that often caps metals moves. Elevated VIX (18.2, +6.1%) would normally caution equity longs but for commodity trends this regime is neutral-to-supportive per category rules.
Plan: Stop is placed below the 6.39-6.40 breakout shelf — the zone that was resistance, became support on the gap-through, and would invalidate the intraday continuation thesis if recaptured by bears. A close below there signals the impulse is exhausted and the gap may fill. Target is the 6.60-6.62 zone, projecting approximately one measured move from the 6.18-6.35 base that launched this leg; also represents open air on the chart with no significant prior structure above 6.51 visible on the 4h. R/R approximately 2:1 with ~0.09 risk to ~0.14 reward.
📍 Entry: 6.4780
🛑 Stop: 6.3900
🎯 Target: 6.6200
⚖️ R:R: 1.61
Flow: Broad commodity tape is sharply bullish today with silver, natgas, platinum, and crude all posting outsized gains — copper is participating as the industrial bellwether rather than as a laggard. The +2.83% move on elevated volume while equities (ES/NQ) barely hold green points to commodity-specific demand. COT positioning shows non-commercials net long ~62,849 contracts with a modest WoW increase, not yet at exhaustion extremes. DXY flat removes the FX headwind that often caps metals moves. Elevated VIX (18.2, +6.1%) would normally caution equity longs but for commodity trends this regime is neutral-to-supportive per category rules.
Plan: Stop is placed below the 6.39-6.40 breakout shelf — the zone that was resistance, became support on the gap-through, and would invalidate the intraday continuation thesis if recaptured by bears. A close below there signals the impulse is exhausted and the gap may fill. Target is the 6.60-6.62 zone, projecting approximately one measured move from the 6.18-6.35 base that launched this leg; also represents open air on the chart with no significant prior structure above 6.51 visible on the 4h. R/R approximately 2:1 with ~0.09 risk to ~0.14 reward.
📍 Entry: 6.4780
🛑 Stop: 6.3900
🎯 Target: 6.6200
⚖️ R:R: 1.61
monk.trade — Trade setups and market intelligence
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monk.trade — Trade setups and market intelligence
Declinazione di responsabilità
Le informazioni e le pubblicazioni non sono intese come, e non costituiscono, consulenza o raccomandazioni finanziarie, di investimento, di trading o di altro tipo fornite o approvate da TradingView. Per ulteriori informazioni, consultare i Termini di utilizzo.