In this world, everything is subject to change. Not so long ago, we all observed colossal pressure on Russia. And last month, in Alaska, for the first time in many years, the presidents of Russia and the United States met.
This is the first step in big geopolitics, and also opens up great opportunities for the Russian stock market.
Earlier, we wrote in a note about USDRUB that we expect a further reduction in the Central Bank of the Russian Federation's key rate. This will not only cause USDRUB to grow, but will also lead to a revaluation of companies in Russia.
Today, the yield on Russian government bonds is 14% with a key rate of 18%. As the key rate decreases, the yield on government bonds will also decrease, which will cause a flow of money from bonds to stocks. At the end of next year, the CBR rate will be about 10%.
The dividend yield on stocks in the Russian Federation is around 10-12%. Investors will be pricing in further rate cuts, which will cause stock revaluations
As the Ukrainian conflict ends, sanctions against Russia by the United States will be partially lifted, which will reduce the geopolitical discount of risky assets in the Russian Federation.
The weakening of the ruble will also help Russian exporters with revenue and profit.
The stock market was under pressure not only due to geopolitical factors, but also due to the actions of the CBR, which, in addition to a strong rate hike, greatly compressed the M2 money supply. This led to historically low stock multiples (P/E, P/B)
From a technical point of view, the market is finishing the last wave E in a triangle and with a further upward exit
This is the first step in big geopolitics, and also opens up great opportunities for the Russian stock market.
Earlier, we wrote in a note about USDRUB that we expect a further reduction in the Central Bank of the Russian Federation's key rate. This will not only cause USDRUB to grow, but will also lead to a revaluation of companies in Russia.
Today, the yield on Russian government bonds is 14% with a key rate of 18%. As the key rate decreases, the yield on government bonds will also decrease, which will cause a flow of money from bonds to stocks. At the end of next year, the CBR rate will be about 10%.
The dividend yield on stocks in the Russian Federation is around 10-12%. Investors will be pricing in further rate cuts, which will cause stock revaluations
As the Ukrainian conflict ends, sanctions against Russia by the United States will be partially lifted, which will reduce the geopolitical discount of risky assets in the Russian Federation.
The weakening of the ruble will also help Russian exporters with revenue and profit.
The stock market was under pressure not only due to geopolitical factors, but also due to the actions of the CBR, which, in addition to a strong rate hike, greatly compressed the M2 money supply. This led to historically low stock multiples (P/E, P/B)
From a technical point of view, the market is finishing the last wave E in a triangle and with a further upward exit
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Declinazione di responsabilità
Le informazioni e le pubblicazioni non sono intese come, e non costituiscono, consulenza o raccomandazioni finanziarie, di investimento, di trading o di altro tipo fornite o approvate da TradingView. Per ulteriori informazioni, consultare i Termini di utilizzo.