1. Assumed Metal Price Deck by Scenario (1Y / 3Y / 5Y)
Scenario Prior → Post Weight Gold (USD/oz) 1Y / 3Y / 5Y Silver (USD/oz) 1Y / 3Y / 5Y Copper (USD/lb) 1Y / 3Y / 5Y Zinc (USD/mt) [USD/lb] 1Y / 3Y / 5Y 1Y Implied Share Price (CAD)
Bear (Cozamin deal fails) 25% → 20% \$3,262 / \$3,200 / \$3,200 \$41.03 / \$40.00 / \$40.00 \$3.84 / \$3.80 / \$3.80 \$2,041 / \$2,000 / \$2,000 [\$0.93 / \$0.91] C\$0.00
Base (Cozamin closes) 45% → 56% \$4,582 / \$4,500 / \$4,500 \$69.54 / \$68.13 / \$68.13 \$5.87 / \$5.86 / \$5.86 \$3,002 / \$2,951 / \$2,951 [\$1.36 / \$1.34] C\$1.38
Bull (Cozamin closes) 25% → 20% \$6,500 / \$6,500 / \$6,500 \$112.05 / \$110.00 / \$110.00 \$8.00 / \$8.00 / \$8.00 \$4,200 / \$4,200 / \$4,200 [\$1.91 / \$1.91] C\$4.46
Blue Sky (+10% vs. Bull) 5% → 4% \$7,150 / \$7,150 / \$7,150 \$123.26 / \$121.00 / \$121.00 \$8.80 / \$8.80 / \$8.80 \$4,620 / \$4,620 / \$4,620 [\$2.10 / \$2.10] C\$6.17
2. Physical Realization, Streams & Contingent Copper Triggers (company_adjusted)
Standalone Operations (Campo Morado + Tahuehueto, vs. Q2 2026 Realized Baseline of \$4,514/oz Au, \$73.37/oz Ag, \$6.03/lb Cu, \$3,439/t Zn):
Gold (21.49 koz/yr payable at 92% net realization): C\$0.0281m (US\$0.0198m) annual EBITDA per \$1/oz change in Gold.
Silver (548 koz/yr Campo Morado unstreamed at 92% + 521 koz/yr Tahuehueto Empress-streamed at 20% cash price): C\$0.8639m (US\$0.6086m) annual EBITDA per \$1/oz change in Silver (with the full US\$39.78m / C\$56.48m Empress stream fair-value liability deducted once in other_claims_mm).
Copper (7.85 Mlbs/yr payable at 90% concentrate capture): C\$10.0320m (US\$7.0668m) annual EBITDA per \$1.00/lb change in Copper.
Zinc (11,516 t/yr payable at 85% concentrate capture): C\$0.0139m (US\$0.0098m) annual EBITDA per \$1/mt change in Zinc.
Conditional Cozamin Mine (Base, Bull, Blue Sky where acquisition closes):
Adds 38.0 Mlbs/yr payable Copper (25% hedged/capped at Base 1Y \$5.87/lb in Years 1–3), 1.50 Moz/yr payable Silver (net of the combined 65% Wheaton silver stream at 10% spot cash price
→
→ 41.5% effective realization), and 3,500 t/yr by-product Zinc.
Capstone Copper-Price Contingent Earnout (2027–2029): Automatically deducts US\$0m/yr in Base (Cu = \$5.87/lb < \$7.00/lb), US\$15.0m/yr (C\$21.29m/yr) in Bull (Cu = \$8.00/lb ≥$7.76/lb≥$7.76/lb), and US\$20.0m/yr (C\$28.39m/yr) in Blue Sky (Cu= \$8.80/lb ≥$8.51lb≥$8.51/lb).
Scenario Prior → Post Weight Gold (USD/oz) 1Y / 3Y / 5Y Silver (USD/oz) 1Y / 3Y / 5Y Copper (USD/lb) 1Y / 3Y / 5Y Zinc (USD/mt) [USD/lb] 1Y / 3Y / 5Y 1Y Implied Share Price (CAD)
Bear (Cozamin deal fails) 25% → 20% \$3,262 / \$3,200 / \$3,200 \$41.03 / \$40.00 / \$40.00 \$3.84 / \$3.80 / \$3.80 \$2,041 / \$2,000 / \$2,000 [\$0.93 / \$0.91] C\$0.00
Base (Cozamin closes) 45% → 56% \$4,582 / \$4,500 / \$4,500 \$69.54 / \$68.13 / \$68.13 \$5.87 / \$5.86 / \$5.86 \$3,002 / \$2,951 / \$2,951 [\$1.36 / \$1.34] C\$1.38
Bull (Cozamin closes) 25% → 20% \$6,500 / \$6,500 / \$6,500 \$112.05 / \$110.00 / \$110.00 \$8.00 / \$8.00 / \$8.00 \$4,200 / \$4,200 / \$4,200 [\$1.91 / \$1.91] C\$4.46
Blue Sky (+10% vs. Bull) 5% → 4% \$7,150 / \$7,150 / \$7,150 \$123.26 / \$121.00 / \$121.00 \$8.80 / \$8.80 / \$8.80 \$4,620 / \$4,620 / \$4,620 [\$2.10 / \$2.10] C\$6.17
2. Physical Realization, Streams & Contingent Copper Triggers (company_adjusted)
Standalone Operations (Campo Morado + Tahuehueto, vs. Q2 2026 Realized Baseline of \$4,514/oz Au, \$73.37/oz Ag, \$6.03/lb Cu, \$3,439/t Zn):
Gold (21.49 koz/yr payable at 92% net realization): C\$0.0281m (US\$0.0198m) annual EBITDA per \$1/oz change in Gold.
Silver (548 koz/yr Campo Morado unstreamed at 92% + 521 koz/yr Tahuehueto Empress-streamed at 20% cash price): C\$0.8639m (US\$0.6086m) annual EBITDA per \$1/oz change in Silver (with the full US\$39.78m / C\$56.48m Empress stream fair-value liability deducted once in other_claims_mm).
Copper (7.85 Mlbs/yr payable at 90% concentrate capture): C\$10.0320m (US\$7.0668m) annual EBITDA per \$1.00/lb change in Copper.
Zinc (11,516 t/yr payable at 85% concentrate capture): C\$0.0139m (US\$0.0098m) annual EBITDA per \$1/mt change in Zinc.
Conditional Cozamin Mine (Base, Bull, Blue Sky where acquisition closes):
Adds 38.0 Mlbs/yr payable Copper (25% hedged/capped at Base 1Y \$5.87/lb in Years 1–3), 1.50 Moz/yr payable Silver (net of the combined 65% Wheaton silver stream at 10% spot cash price
→
→ 41.5% effective realization), and 3,500 t/yr by-product Zinc.
Capstone Copper-Price Contingent Earnout (2027–2029): Automatically deducts US\$0m/yr in Base (Cu = \$5.87/lb < \$7.00/lb), US\$15.0m/yr (C\$21.29m/yr) in Bull (Cu = \$8.00/lb ≥$7.76/lb≥$7.76/lb), and US\$20.0m/yr (C\$28.39m/yr) in Blue Sky (Cu= \$8.80/lb ≥$8.51lb≥$8.51/lb).
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Declinazione di responsabilità
Le informazioni e le pubblicazioni non sono intese come, e non costituiscono, consulenza o raccomandazioni finanziarie, di investimento, di trading o di altro tipo fornite o approvate da TradingView. Per ulteriori informazioni, consultare i Termini di utilizzo.