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NAS100 Is Big Money Trapping Retail Longs? Here’s My Trade Plan.

186
NAS100 🌍

The macro narrative for the NASDAQ heading into this week is dominated by the upcoming Federal Reserve rate decision and corporate earnings season 🏦. With Chair Kevin Warsh expected to maintain a firm stance on inflation amidst persistent macro headwinds, market chatter suggests retail participants are eagerly trying to pick a bottom on tech assets, assuming a dovish surprise is right around the corner. Interestingly, general online sentiment is heavily leaning bullish, expecting a swift recovery in growth stocks. This overcrowded bullish crowd creates the perfect backdrop for a liquidity hunt before any true directional expansion takes place.

Looking at the technical structure, the higher timeframe remains firmly bearish 📉. Applying Wyckoff logic, the recent upward action appears to be nothing more than a corrective pullback into supply within a broader Markdown phase. While widespread community chatter is calling for an immediate bullish breakout, the market structure on the 30-minute chart shows price probing just above local range highs to trap late buyers. From an Auction Market Theory (AMT) standpoint, price is testing the upper extreme of our high-volume node, setting up a classic Upthrust/Liquidity Grab scenario where retail longs are likely to get trapped as momentum fades.

Key Zone: Price is currently hovering around the upper boundary of our Volume Profile value area near $28,519 – $28,555 📉, right above the Point of Control (POC) at $28,450.33 and framed by the overhead descending resistance line.

We are currently trading near the top of this localized consolidation range. I am watching for a run on liquidity to sweep the late buyers I'm seeing across various social forums before looking for a decisive transition back into value 🧹. If buyers fail to hold acceptance above $28,520, the path of least resistance points toward the lower value area limit near $28,334.59 and down into the target zone around $28,227.38.

My Trade Plan 🎯

Bias: Short. I am exercising patience and waiting for explicit structural confirmation rather than front-running the resistance.

Entry Protocol: I am looking for two distinct entry triggers based on your chart setup. The primary setup is a bearish Break of Structure (BoS) below $28,519 with a weak retest into the $28,450 POC to sell down toward $28,334. Alternatively, if price breaks forcefully through the range, I will await a secondary bearish BoS and retest below the Value Area Low at $28,334.59 targeting $28,227.38. If price builds acceptance above $28,600 and invalidates the structure, we abandon the short idea completely.
Trade chiuso: obiettivo raggiunto

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