NZD/USD Is Building Something Big... Is 0.6000 the Next Target?
After weeks of sustained selling pressure, NZD/USD is finally showing the first signs of a potential trend reversal. Price has reacted precisely from a higher-timeframe demand zone and is now trading inside a developing bullish structure, supported by improving momentum and historically favorable seasonality.
Technical Outlook
From a price action perspective, the market has defended the daily demand area around 0.5620–0.5710, producing a sequence of higher lows and breaking the short-term bearish trendline.
The recent impulse confirms that buyers are gradually regaining control, but I am not interested in chasing price at current levels. Instead, I will be looking for a healthy pullback into support before considering any long exposure.
The first objective remains the 0.5860 resistance, while the key supply zone sits between 0.5900 and 0.6000. This area represents the most significant obstacle before a larger bullish continuation can develop.
Seasonality
Seasonality strongly supports the bullish scenario.
Across the last 20, 15, 10, 5 and even 2 years, July has consistently delivered positive average performance for NZD/USD.
Historically, the second half of July tends to produce the strongest gains, adding another layer of confluence to the current technical structure.
Retail Sentiment
Retail positioning is currently almost perfectly balanced, with approximately 50% long and 50% short.
This provides no meaningful contrarian signal and suggests that positioning is relatively neutral.
Commitment of Traders (COT)
This is where I remain cautious.
Institutional positioning on the New Zealand Dollar is still heavily net short, indicating that the longer-term bearish narrative has not yet disappeared.
At the same time, positioning on the US Dollar Index remains net long, although recent data shows that bullish USD exposure is beginning to soften.
In my opinion, this combination explains the current recovery in NZD/USD while also warning that the move may still be corrective until larger resistance levels are broken.
My Trading Plan
Rather than buying the breakout, I prefer waiting for price to retrace into support and produce bullish confirmation.
Bullish scenario
Buy pullbacks into 0.5710–0.5730
Targets:
0.5860
0.5900
0.6000
Bearish scenario
A daily rejection from the supply zone followed by a break below 0.5680 would invalidate my bullish short-term view and increase the probability of another test of the June lows.
Technical Outlook
From a price action perspective, the market has defended the daily demand area around 0.5620–0.5710, producing a sequence of higher lows and breaking the short-term bearish trendline.
The recent impulse confirms that buyers are gradually regaining control, but I am not interested in chasing price at current levels. Instead, I will be looking for a healthy pullback into support before considering any long exposure.
The first objective remains the 0.5860 resistance, while the key supply zone sits between 0.5900 and 0.6000. This area represents the most significant obstacle before a larger bullish continuation can develop.
Seasonality
Seasonality strongly supports the bullish scenario.
Across the last 20, 15, 10, 5 and even 2 years, July has consistently delivered positive average performance for NZD/USD.
Historically, the second half of July tends to produce the strongest gains, adding another layer of confluence to the current technical structure.
Retail Sentiment
Retail positioning is currently almost perfectly balanced, with approximately 50% long and 50% short.
This provides no meaningful contrarian signal and suggests that positioning is relatively neutral.
Commitment of Traders (COT)
This is where I remain cautious.
Institutional positioning on the New Zealand Dollar is still heavily net short, indicating that the longer-term bearish narrative has not yet disappeared.
At the same time, positioning on the US Dollar Index remains net long, although recent data shows that bullish USD exposure is beginning to soften.
In my opinion, this combination explains the current recovery in NZD/USD while also warning that the move may still be corrective until larger resistance levels are broken.
My Trading Plan
Rather than buying the breakout, I prefer waiting for price to retrace into support and produce bullish confirmation.
Bullish scenario
Buy pullbacks into 0.5710–0.5730
Targets:
0.5860
0.5900
0.6000
Bearish scenario
A daily rejection from the supply zone followed by a break below 0.5680 would invalidate my bullish short-term view and increase the probability of another test of the June lows.
📈 Nicola | EdgeTradingJourney
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
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Le informazioni e le pubblicazioni non sono intese come, e non costituiscono, consulenza o raccomandazioni finanziarie, di investimento, di trading o di altro tipo fornite o approvate da TradingView. Per ulteriori informazioni, consultare i Termini di utilizzo.
📈 Nicola | EdgeTradingJourney
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Declinazione di responsabilità
Le informazioni e le pubblicazioni non sono intese come, e non costituiscono, consulenza o raccomandazioni finanziarie, di investimento, di trading o di altro tipo fornite o approvate da TradingView. Per ulteriori informazioni, consultare i Termini di utilizzo.