An analysis of historical price movements suggests that the Russell 2000 Index tends to enter an upward trend starting about one year before a U.S. presidential election. The 200-day moving average currently stands at around 2,417. This indicates that the index is highly sensitive to political regime-change events.
From a seasonal perspective, April has historically shown a tendency to decline by an average of about 3.8%. The next U.S. presidential election will take place on November 7, 2028. Based on an average lead time of 329 days, this would correspond to December 15, 2027.
Moreover, compared with the S&P 500, the Russell 2000 often tends to reach its peak about two to three months earlier.
From a seasonal perspective, April has historically shown a tendency to decline by an average of about 3.8%. The next U.S. presidential election will take place on November 7, 2028. Based on an average lead time of 329 days, this would correspond to December 15, 2027.
Moreover, compared with the S&P 500, the Russell 2000 often tends to reach its peak about two to three months earlier.
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