This is the 2003-2013 cycle mapped through the emotional lens of the average market participant. Every crash box has a psychological fingerprint. This is what it looks like.
The sequence:
The market moves along untouched. Confidence is high. Nobody questions it. Then innovation arrives (early internet, smartphones, emerging tech) and a bubble forms. Participants reap the benefits. But doubt creeps in: "I'm in old tech." "What's real and what's hype?" Saturation sets in. Nobody knows what to invest in anymore.
Then the break.
Professional money separates from the herd. Pros limit losses, manage risk, even profit on the way down. The general population withdraws entirely through fear of the unknown. "We were told it was safe. Year on year increases. What happened?"
The Eye Opening Wedge forms at the bottom. This is where the crash box is born. Smart money re-enters while retail is frozen. The divergence between those two groups is the crash box geometry. The angle of recovery is set by how quickly confidence returns.
The critical insight: Crash box angles change with increased population participation and accelerating innovation cycles. Each crash is steeper but shorter. The geometry compresses because the world moves faster. This intersects directly with the Cube Cosmos Published Crash Box Idea on the current SPY setup.
But stay tuned. In the next part, I ask the question nobody else does: what if this doesn't need to happen again? What if the crash box is not a market law, but a failure of collective psychology? What did this actually cost us, and what would the timeline look like had we chosen differently?
The alternative version of events follows.
I dare us to break the cycle, back then even the smart money needed to relearn strategy and widen their fields of view.
They entered again because the knew one thing.
The economy will grow, because it must!!
Our very survival in a growing population depends on it.
Personally, i want us to catch up with where we should be by now.
If we were not so distracted cleaning up the mess fear and doubt, even contempt prior to investigation presents, where do you think the SPY value would be sitting at today?
Psychology birthed this cycle, Psychology can change its destiny!!!
The sequence:
The market moves along untouched. Confidence is high. Nobody questions it. Then innovation arrives (early internet, smartphones, emerging tech) and a bubble forms. Participants reap the benefits. But doubt creeps in: "I'm in old tech." "What's real and what's hype?" Saturation sets in. Nobody knows what to invest in anymore.
Then the break.
Professional money separates from the herd. Pros limit losses, manage risk, even profit on the way down. The general population withdraws entirely through fear of the unknown. "We were told it was safe. Year on year increases. What happened?"
The Eye Opening Wedge forms at the bottom. This is where the crash box is born. Smart money re-enters while retail is frozen. The divergence between those two groups is the crash box geometry. The angle of recovery is set by how quickly confidence returns.
The critical insight: Crash box angles change with increased population participation and accelerating innovation cycles. Each crash is steeper but shorter. The geometry compresses because the world moves faster. This intersects directly with the Cube Cosmos Published Crash Box Idea on the current SPY setup.
But stay tuned. In the next part, I ask the question nobody else does: what if this doesn't need to happen again? What if the crash box is not a market law, but a failure of collective psychology? What did this actually cost us, and what would the timeline look like had we chosen differently?
The alternative version of events follows.
I dare us to break the cycle, back then even the smart money needed to relearn strategy and widen their fields of view.
They entered again because the knew one thing.
The economy will grow, because it must!!
Our very survival in a growing population depends on it.
Personally, i want us to catch up with where we should be by now.
If we were not so distracted cleaning up the mess fear and doubt, even contempt prior to investigation presents, where do you think the SPY value would be sitting at today?
Psychology birthed this cycle, Psychology can change its destiny!!!
Declinazione di responsabilità
Le informazioni e le pubblicazioni non sono intese come, e non costituiscono, consulenza o raccomandazioni finanziarie, di investimento, di trading o di altro tipo fornite o approvate da TradingView. Per ulteriori informazioni, consultare i Termini di utilizzo.
Declinazione di responsabilità
Le informazioni e le pubblicazioni non sono intese come, e non costituiscono, consulenza o raccomandazioni finanziarie, di investimento, di trading o di altro tipo fornite o approvate da TradingView. Per ulteriori informazioni, consultare i Termini di utilizzo.