1. MACRO & COT FRAMEWORK
COT – CAD
→ Speculators remain heavily net short on CAD.
The Canadian dollar shows a massive net-short imbalance, exceeding 100k net contracts.
Speculators are still selling CAD aggressively → supportive for upside continuation on USD/CAD.
COT – USD
→ USD is still net short overall, but positioning is shifting.
The dollar is beginning to reverse positioning: fewer shorts + more longs = improving USD strength.
→ Overall COT environment favors further upside for USD/CAD.
2. RETAIL SENTIMENT
Retail Longs: 51%
Retail Shorts: 49%
Retail is almost evenly split, slightly long.
This is mostly neutral, but historically, when sentiment is balanced, price tends to follow institutional flows → which remain long USD/CAD.
Sentiment confirms a bullish bias.
3. SEASONALITY (USD/CAD – November)
November is historically a slightly bullish month for USD/CAD.
The 20-year, 15-year, and 10-year composites all show a positive seasonal tendency.
The current month is tracking a similar pattern.
Seasonality supports a long bias into the second half of November.
4. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
The pair remains in a structurally bullish uptrend with a clean ascending channel.
Higher highs and higher lows confirm trend integrity.
Price is currently correcting toward the mid-range of the channel.
The market is entering a Daily FVG between 1.3950 – 1.3980.
A prior sweep has already tapped the lower trendline, adding confluence.
Immediate Support Zone
1.3950 – 1.3980 (FVG + structural support)
→ ideal area for long accumulation.
Upside Target:
1.41500 → clear liquidity level above previous swing high.
RSI remains above 40 and cooling off, indicating a healthy pullback within a bullish trend.
COT – CAD
→ Speculators remain heavily net short on CAD.
The Canadian dollar shows a massive net-short imbalance, exceeding 100k net contracts.
Speculators are still selling CAD aggressively → supportive for upside continuation on USD/CAD.
COT – USD
→ USD is still net short overall, but positioning is shifting.
The dollar is beginning to reverse positioning: fewer shorts + more longs = improving USD strength.
→ Overall COT environment favors further upside for USD/CAD.
2. RETAIL SENTIMENT
Retail Longs: 51%
Retail Shorts: 49%
Retail is almost evenly split, slightly long.
This is mostly neutral, but historically, when sentiment is balanced, price tends to follow institutional flows → which remain long USD/CAD.
Sentiment confirms a bullish bias.
3. SEASONALITY (USD/CAD – November)
November is historically a slightly bullish month for USD/CAD.
The 20-year, 15-year, and 10-year composites all show a positive seasonal tendency.
The current month is tracking a similar pattern.
Seasonality supports a long bias into the second half of November.
4. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
The pair remains in a structurally bullish uptrend with a clean ascending channel.
Higher highs and higher lows confirm trend integrity.
Price is currently correcting toward the mid-range of the channel.
The market is entering a Daily FVG between 1.3950 – 1.3980.
A prior sweep has already tapped the lower trendline, adding confluence.
Immediate Support Zone
1.3950 – 1.3980 (FVG + structural support)
→ ideal area for long accumulation.
Upside Target:
1.41500 → clear liquidity level above previous swing high.
RSI remains above 40 and cooling off, indicating a healthy pullback within a bullish trend.
📈 Nicola | EdgeTradingJourney
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
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Le informazioni e le pubblicazioni non sono intese come, e non costituiscono, consulenza o raccomandazioni finanziarie, di investimento, di trading o di altro tipo fornite o approvate da TradingView. Per ulteriori informazioni, consultare i Termini di utilizzo.
📈 Nicola | EdgeTradingJourney
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Declinazione di responsabilità
Le informazioni e le pubblicazioni non sono intese come, e non costituiscono, consulenza o raccomandazioni finanziarie, di investimento, di trading o di altro tipo fornite o approvate da TradingView. Per ulteriori informazioni, consultare i Termini di utilizzo.