Weaker DXY Weighs on USDTHB

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Market Analysis: The DXY index declined to 100.71, exerting downward pressure on USDTHB in the short term. Although the 30-year US Treasury yield came in higher at 5.058% (compared to 5.050% previously)—which typically supports the USD—buying pressure remained insufficient to reverse the price momentum. Meanwhile, the Fed’s balance sheet expanded to $6.736 trillion and commercial bank reserves parked at the Fed rose to $3.137 trillion,

reflecting increased financial liquidity. However, these factors failed to clearly bolster the greenback, leaving USDTHB vulnerable to technical selling with a tendency to trade within a weaker bias.

Technical Outlook: The overall USDTHB chart has shifted to a Bearish Bias after breaching a key support level and falling below the EMA line. The price is also close to closing below the Order Block (OB) zone at 33.29–33.30, indicating that sellers have regained short-term control. The RSI sits around 27 in oversold territory, suggesting a potential short-term technical rebound. Concurrently, the MACD has crossed below the signal line with the histogram expanding in negative territory, showing strong selling momentum despite potential intermittent rebounds. If supported by key news or a technical rebound that firmly pushes the price above 33.29–33.30, there is a chance it could test and close above the Fair Value Gap (FVG) at 33.41 and the key resistance at 33.46.

Risks: Although the oversold RSI may trigger short-term buying pressure, the primary momentum remains bearish. If a rebound fails to clear the 33.29–33.30 level, the price risks another sell-off. Additionally, a positive opening in the Thai stock market this morning could exert further downward pressure on USDTHB.

Support Level : 33.29 – 33.24

Target : 33.41 – 33.46

Stop Loss : 33.22

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