If we look at the chart, we've been consolidating in a large pattern since the carry trade unwind of August 2024.
It looks like we should have another vol shock in the coming weeks/months here with a move to $47-58 to complete the third touch of the trend line of the structure.
If this plays out, then I don't think we'll break the structure yet. The most likely outcome is we'll see a large move down in the vix after this vol shock happens back down into the 24 support level.
That will cause many people to think that the coast is clear, but if we hold that support level, it'll setup the final vol shock (and likely the biggest one we've seen) up to the top resistance levels of 100+ which would be a technical target for the break of the pattern.
I think there's risk that the first vol shock can take place in July or August and then we'll have to see about the timing of the next one.
Many people are complacent here and I don't think many people are expecting a decent correction to take place.
The technicals on VIX and SPY are telling me that we should see a move very shortly.
Let's see if this idea plays out.
It looks like we should have another vol shock in the coming weeks/months here with a move to $47-58 to complete the third touch of the trend line of the structure.
If this plays out, then I don't think we'll break the structure yet. The most likely outcome is we'll see a large move down in the vix after this vol shock happens back down into the 24 support level.
That will cause many people to think that the coast is clear, but if we hold that support level, it'll setup the final vol shock (and likely the biggest one we've seen) up to the top resistance levels of 100+ which would be a technical target for the break of the pattern.
I think there's risk that the first vol shock can take place in July or August and then we'll have to see about the timing of the next one.
Many people are complacent here and I don't think many people are expecting a decent correction to take place.
The technicals on VIX and SPY are telling me that we should see a move very shortly.
Let's see if this idea plays out.
Nota
Got the reaction on vol this morning. Let's see if this is the move that finally has some legs.Nota
VIX heikin ashi green flat bottomed candles now on weekly, 1D, 2D, and 3D so far... 4D should come tomorrow, 5 day should come Thursday. Usually need them on all timeframes (or most) under 2 weeks to see the large move take place. 10 day starts on July 27th and 2 week candle starts on August 3rd. If you click play on the chart above, you can see that we've bounced off the lower boundary and are starting to get a reaction.
Everything I look at tells me this move is getting closer. It could either be to the first target on the chart, or we could just see the move straight to the upper resistance levels. If we got a 10%-17% correction over the course of 1-2 days, that would get a massive vix spike and could potentially get us to those levels.
Will update more as I see more play out, but I'm continuing to add here. Let's see if anything comes of it.
Nota
Breaking some key levels today. If we can close over 19.29 it'll be a positive developmentTrade attivo
Fully built my vix positionNota
First time the curve flipped into backwardation today... right now it flipped back, but we're getting some strong signals. Let's see how it closes.IMO tomorrow and Wednesday are key dates, we shall see what those days bring.
Nota
Welp got our close above $19.29, curve flipped to backwardation, and yields spiking + dollar dropping. My guess is the BOJ meeting on Friday further sets fire to the market. Likely catalyst is the dollar keeps dropping and sets off an unwind in the carry trade. So a Thursday overnight move is likely where we get a big unwind in leverage.If all plays out the way I expect, we should see a low come in SPY and a top in the Vix early next week between Monday-Wednesday.
Again, that's my expectation based on what I see on various charts I'm tracking, but I can't predict the future. We shall see if it plays out that way.
If we get to the first box, I'll take some profit, if we get to the second, I'll sell it all.
I'm in all cash in all my accounts and only vix calls right now. If this plays out, the buy the dip opportunity in equities will be once in a lifetime. I'll share some long ideas if we get this move.
Nota
Welp looked like we were going to get a liquidation earlier and the market has rallied since. Will need to see what happens Monday/Tuesday now. I do still feel like we're really close here. The idea is that we get the entire move to play out in under a week I think, so that's why the timing of it is hard.
Either way, I think the move finishes by Wednesday, or starts on Wednesday. So we'll have to see what happens next week. That's the next big date on the chart.
I'm not going to be watching the market the rest of the day.
Nota
Need to see what happens tomorrow now. Spot up vol up into end of day... Let's see if that's the early warning sign.
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Le informazioni e le pubblicazioni non sono intese come, e non costituiscono, consulenza o raccomandazioni finanziarie, di investimento, di trading o di altro tipo fornite o approvate da TradingView. Per ulteriori informazioni, consultare i Termini di utilizzo.