I'm not sure what the cause will be here, but it looks like we're on the verge of a massive vix spike. I can imagine that the selloff will look like a combination between the 1987 1 day crash and the covid selloff.
I think we're about to see a 20%+ correction that happens very quickly which I think will lead to a massive spike in the Vix. Potentially the largest spike thus far.
In order for this move to play out, we'll need a close over 20, then the 28 level on the chart, and then I think it's possible that we see the upper resistance levels.
Let's see how it plays out over the coming weeks.
I think we're about to see a 20%+ correction that happens very quickly which I think will lead to a massive spike in the Vix. Potentially the largest spike thus far.
In order for this move to play out, we'll need a close over 20, then the 28 level on the chart, and then I think it's possible that we see the upper resistance levels.
Let's see how it plays out over the coming weeks.
Trade attivo
Bought more vol today for March expiry. Looking like we're very close to a big move.If we don't see the move before the March options expiry, then I will build a position for April afterwards.
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Got the test of the 28 level today, once we break it we should see the larger move happen.Nota
If we break $28 today and close above it, i think the move I've been expecting can play out over the next week or two.Nota
Out of my vix calls today and spot positions, will reload after a pullback if we get it.Nota
Little update here: I think if we see vix move back into 19-20, that'll be the spot I want to rebuy options.Think the larger move that I've been expecting will play out either in May or June.
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Alright we're back at 19, but now I think we can continue a bit lower. Might start nibbling a little tomorrow, but I want to save going heavy for 17 and below.Nota
Starting to scale back into Vix calls for May/June expiration down here. Think we can continue to see vol compress into opex (maybe even next week as well, but IMO these are good levels to start adding). Keeping my long equity calls as well until I see upper SPY targets met (703,716).Nota
I've started scaling out of calls yesterday and am increasing VIX/UVIX exposure here... We should see 716 spy tomorrow (we hit it in overnight hours yesterday).Loading the May and June contracts.
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Upside target hit today. Just like on the downside it's possible to overshoot, but I'm taking my positioning to max UVIX calls over the next few days.Nota
Went to 100% position in UVIX today.Nota
I haven't updated this in a long time. Still waiting for this trade to play out. I think the move today was likely the short term top in the VIX, but the next time we get into this 20-22 range, it will likely break through the range to the upside.If we retest the lows, or break down to the support level at $13.62 that's where I'll want to get long again.
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Okay market starting to look weaker here. I'm starting to add vol exposure back.Nota
VIX calls starting to print. A close over 18.50 will be a good signal. Let's see if we can get some continuation into the next week or two.Levels I'm watching: 18.50, 28, 42, 55 (above this, the move should play out to the targets on the chart).
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Declinazione di responsabilità
Le informazioni e le pubblicazioni non sono intese come, e non costituiscono, consulenza o raccomandazioni finanziarie, di investimento, di trading o di altro tipo fornite o approvate da TradingView. Per ulteriori informazioni, consultare i Termini di utilizzo.