There's truth about VIX longterm bottoms and SPX tops, but believing that concept can come biting you back.
Stock performance will correlate with SPX in relative terms? ie how much potential and lack of resistance. Stocks go in cycles. So probably this is a important concept to study and master.
Stock performance will correlate with SPX in relative terms? ie how much potential and lack of resistance. Stocks go in cycles. So probably this is a important concept to study and master.
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SPX relative basis.
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statistically people will overestimate important of near events, ignoring the longterm statistics. Nota
VIX loss of 10/20 momentum, de-facto beginning of a new bull.
Sentiment: wait for a dip. Statistically 70% "tendency" for other day to be higher.
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vix from momentum stand point. Sometimes stocks can have strong demand, despite of swingy vix? but sh*t performance for small caps or momentum. Unless it's like top1% performer.
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strong VIX high top + bullish VIX momentum, probably best idea to trade faang or soxx/nvda? and mistake to buy top momentum stocks.high VIX top + high VIX 50dma, or full exhaust, with a longterm VIX downtrend potential - usually best periods for small cap returns?
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sentiment at High VIX is usually a high risk, variance. Despite that most people are now out of positions? People discredit "SPX relative basis".Nota
"VIX soon to be 50/200 deathcross" the best time to risk. because markets are risk-reward oriented. Nota
NOV->DEC and JAN was the best time to trade or enter top1% stocks. I call these spots "pockets"? (pockets with potential to fill).When these deep corrections (with support at log fib 50%) - big mistake not to capitalize? that's where the big money is?
//ie buying 2-3 weeks before confirmation of a new bull. (Dan Zanger).
Markets are predictable.
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