Oro / Dollaro
Short
Aggiornato

XAUUSD: Wave Four Tests Resistance Before Next Leg Lower

149
The structure on gold turned bearish once the ChoCH near 4,360 gave way to a clean break below 4,218. That shift set the tone for everything that followed. Price moved into a defined corrective sequence, with wave one bottoming near 3,959 and wave two retracing into the 4,180 to 4,218 fair value gap before sellers regained control. Wave three then extended the move, pushing price back down to 3,959 and confirming a second break of structure along the way.

What is happening now looks like wave four. Price has been compressing into the 4,051 to 4,071 area, right where the EMA cluster sits, just below the unfilled gap from wave two. This is the zone that matters most at the moment. As long as price stays beneath the recent high near 4,126, I am leaning bearish, treating this consolidation as a pause rather than a reversal.

If the rejection holds inside this range, the next move should resemble wave five, completing the broader decline. The level I am watching for that completion is 3,918, which lines up with the 1.618 extension already marked on the chart. A move into that zone would close out the structure cleanly, without needing to invent a new narrative.

The idea stays valid only while price respects this ceiling. A clean break and close above 4,126 would invalidate the current read. At that point wave four would no longer look like a pause, it would look like an extension, and the bearish case would need to be reassessed rather than assumed.

For now, the chart is doing what fourth waves usually do. Quiet, compressed, and waiting for confirmation before the next decision is made.
Trade attivo
istantanea
SELL ZONE ACTIVE +660PIPS
Nota
istantanea
PRICE WILL SOON HIT THE WAVE 5 POINT
Trade chiuso: obiettivo raggiunto
istantanea
PRICE WENT EXACTLY AS PLANNED
TARGET REACHED +1510PIPS

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