Gold continues to respect the bearish intraday structure after failing to hold above the short-term H4 recovery trendline. The market opened the week with a bearish gap and confirmed weakness after rejecting from the upper demand zone around 474x, which aligned perfectly with the previous sell bias.
For the US session, focus remains on how price reacts around the current support + Fibonacci 0.382 area. This zone is acting as the first short-term liquidity support after the breakdown move. If gold loses this area cleanly, momentum could continue toward the deeper support + fibo zones below around 463x–462x.
The broader macro perspective remains unchanged. Current recovery phases still look more like technical rebounds inside a larger uncertain macro structure rather than confirmation of a sustainable bullish trend. CPI week volatility ahead could become the catalyst for stronger directional movement.
MAIN SCENARIO:
Gold continues weak below the broken trendline structure. Any rebound back toward the intraday demand zones may continue attracting sell pressure before another move lower toward support + fibo liquidity zones.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO:
If support around fibo 0.382 holds firmly during the US session, gold may attempt a short-term recovery back into the 470x–472x demand area before the market decides the next major move.
Current bias:
• Intraday: bearish below trendline
• Main focus: wait for recovery → sell continuation
• Key zones: 470x demand | 463x–462x support + fibo liquidity zones
LucasGrayTrading
For the US session, focus remains on how price reacts around the current support + Fibonacci 0.382 area. This zone is acting as the first short-term liquidity support after the breakdown move. If gold loses this area cleanly, momentum could continue toward the deeper support + fibo zones below around 463x–462x.
The broader macro perspective remains unchanged. Current recovery phases still look more like technical rebounds inside a larger uncertain macro structure rather than confirmation of a sustainable bullish trend. CPI week volatility ahead could become the catalyst for stronger directional movement.
MAIN SCENARIO:
Gold continues weak below the broken trendline structure. Any rebound back toward the intraday demand zones may continue attracting sell pressure before another move lower toward support + fibo liquidity zones.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO:
If support around fibo 0.382 holds firmly during the US session, gold may attempt a short-term recovery back into the 470x–472x demand area before the market decides the next major move.
Current bias:
• Intraday: bearish below trendline
• Main focus: wait for recovery → sell continuation
• Key zones: 470x demand | 463x–462x support + fibo liquidity zones
LucasGrayTrading
Trade attivo
Gold surged strongly from the confluence of support, Fibonacci, and descending trendline, creating a recovery of nearly 1000 pips, exactly as planned. The upward momentum was supported by the price holding the 463x–464x range and returning inside the short-term retracement range.Currently, gold has touched the old resistance zone at 4749 and is approaching the upper trendline of the H2 bearish structure. After the initial reaction, the price is undergoing a slight correction of about 200 pips and entering a short-term decisive zone for the US session.
The current scenario focuses on monitoring the candle closing reaction around the 474x region. If gold continues to hold its bullish structure and breaks out of this resistance zone, the retracement could continue to extend to the demand zones above. Conversely, if strong rejection and a liquidity sweep occur at the upper trendline, gold could return to the descending range and continue its short-term bearish structure.
Trade chiuso: obiettivo raggiunto
UPDATE PLAN H2 11/05 – US SESSIONFake breakout confirmed, gold ultimately chose the correct downward direction according to the short-term bias plan.
The previous upward move from the confluence of support and Fibonacci levels around 465x to the demand zone at 477x, nearly 1200 pips, created the impression of a strong breakout from the short-term downtrend line. However, in reality, the money flow was insufficient to maintain above the large demand zone at 477x.
After the failed retest at that demand level, gold began to reverse and fall again. Combined with tonight's CPI data, strong selling pressure was triggered, causing gold to quickly break down back below the downtrend line and seek the 0.5 Fibonacci level below with a range of nearly 1300 pips.
The key point of this plan is that the market has clearly confirmed a "false recovery" state instead of a true trend reversal. The upward movements were mainly liquidity sweeps and FOMO-driven before large capital flows returned to the main sell bias.
Currently, gold continues to trade within a short-term downtrend. The priority remains waiting for technical rebounds to the supply/demand zone above to observe continuation selling according to the previously mentioned plan structure.
Nota
The US Session plan for May 11th continued to execute exactly as planned. Gold initially reacted precisely at the two support and Fibonacci levels below, with strong upward bounces following the short-term recovery structure.However, the crucial point was that the price failed to sustain buying pressure after approaching the 472x demand zone above. After a failed breakout and repeated rejections at the descending trendline, gold began to confirm the breakdown of the short-term uptrend structure and shifted into a strong selloff, exactly as biased.
From the 472x demand zone, gold experienced a nearly 2000-pip decline, breaking through all intermediate support zones and finding its way to the gap and liquidity area below around 45xx, as anticipated in the plan.
Notably, this decline is no longer a short-term correction but is gradually confirming a clearer medium-term downtrend structure. Current capital flows continue to favor the USD amid market pricing in a prolonged high-interest rate environment, while gold is losing its role as a short-term safe haven following recent economic data.
Gold is currently reacting around the support zone and major Fibonacci levels below. This will be the key area determining whether the market experiences a short-term technical recovery or continues to expand its distribution phase further in the coming sessions.
Daily trend & Supply/Demand insights 📊
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High-probability zones & structured setups
Clear scenarios for better decision-making
Trade smarter with LucasGrayTrading 🎖
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Daily trend & Supply/Demand insights 📊
👉 t.me/+cZC_DmEr3OwzOTA1
High-probability zones & structured setups
Clear scenarios for better decision-making
Trade smarter with LucasGrayTrading 🎖
👉 t.me/+cZC_DmEr3OwzOTA1
High-probability zones & structured setups
Clear scenarios for better decision-making
Trade smarter with LucasGrayTrading 🎖
Declinazione di responsabilità
Le informazioni e le pubblicazioni non sono intese come, e non costituiscono, consulenza o raccomandazioni finanziarie, di investimento, di trading o di altro tipo fornite o approvate da TradingView. Per ulteriori informazioni, consultare i Termini di utilizzo.