Gold started the week with another gap higher, opening above Friday's close and immediately pushing into a key resistance area. While the bullish opening looked impressive at first glance, the move stalled exactly where sellers were expected to become active.
The gap carried price directly into a major 4-hour Fair Value Gap, which also aligns with a 1-hour resistance zone created by the neckline of the Head & Shoulders pattern discussed in my previous analysis. When multiple technical factors meet at the same level, I pay attention.
At the moment, despite the bullish gap, I still lean bearish. However, having a bearish bias does not automatically mean opening a short position. I remain out of the market until price confirms the scenario.
Bearish Scenario (my favorite)
The confirmation I want to see is straightforward.
First, Gold needs to lose the level reclaimed by the gap and break back below Friday's resistance. If that happens, I expect price to retrace toward the gap, effectively filling it.
Many traders will immediately look for buy opportunities once the gap is filled. I won't.
Instead, I want to see the market reject that area and prove that the gap was nothing more than a temporary liquidity grab before another leg lower.
If that rejection appears, I will look for short positions with the stop loss above the daily high, targeting first the psychological 4000 level and, ideally, the area below it.
That setup offers a much healthier risk-to-reward ratio than chasing the initial move.
Bullish Scenario
The bullish case is still very much alive, but it requires stronger confirmation.
Simply bouncing from support isn't enough.
What I want to see is Gold holding above 4100, building value there instead of immediately falling back below it.
In other words, I want to see consolidation above the previous daily high, showing that buyers are actually accepting higher prices rather than producing another short-lived spike.
If that happens, I will start looking for buying opportunities.
The ideal long setup would include:
- sustained trading above 4100;
- a clear consolidation instead of a sharp rejection;
- visible buying pressure before entry;
- a stop below the daily lows;
- a target toward last week's highs, offering at least a 1:2.5 risk-to-reward ratio.
Why I'm Waiting?
One of the biggest mistakes traders make is believing they must always have a position.
They don't.
At the moment, Gold sits exactly between two high-probability scenarios. Chasing the current price would mean accepting unnecessary risk while both buyers and sellers are fighting for control.
I'd rather wait for the market to make the decision first.
If bears regain control below the reclaimed resistance, I'll look for shorts.
If bulls prove they can build acceptance above 4100, I'll look for longs.
Until one of those scenarios is confirmed, staying flat is, in my opinion, the highest-probability trade.
Trade scenarios, not predictions.
The gap carried price directly into a major 4-hour Fair Value Gap, which also aligns with a 1-hour resistance zone created by the neckline of the Head & Shoulders pattern discussed in my previous analysis. When multiple technical factors meet at the same level, I pay attention.
At the moment, despite the bullish gap, I still lean bearish. However, having a bearish bias does not automatically mean opening a short position. I remain out of the market until price confirms the scenario.
Bearish Scenario (my favorite)
The confirmation I want to see is straightforward.
First, Gold needs to lose the level reclaimed by the gap and break back below Friday's resistance. If that happens, I expect price to retrace toward the gap, effectively filling it.
Many traders will immediately look for buy opportunities once the gap is filled. I won't.
Instead, I want to see the market reject that area and prove that the gap was nothing more than a temporary liquidity grab before another leg lower.
If that rejection appears, I will look for short positions with the stop loss above the daily high, targeting first the psychological 4000 level and, ideally, the area below it.
That setup offers a much healthier risk-to-reward ratio than chasing the initial move.
Bullish Scenario
The bullish case is still very much alive, but it requires stronger confirmation.
Simply bouncing from support isn't enough.
What I want to see is Gold holding above 4100, building value there instead of immediately falling back below it.
In other words, I want to see consolidation above the previous daily high, showing that buyers are actually accepting higher prices rather than producing another short-lived spike.
If that happens, I will start looking for buying opportunities.
The ideal long setup would include:
- sustained trading above 4100;
- a clear consolidation instead of a sharp rejection;
- visible buying pressure before entry;
- a stop below the daily lows;
- a target toward last week's highs, offering at least a 1:2.5 risk-to-reward ratio.
Why I'm Waiting?
One of the biggest mistakes traders make is believing they must always have a position.
They don't.
At the moment, Gold sits exactly between two high-probability scenarios. Chasing the current price would mean accepting unnecessary risk while both buyers and sellers are fighting for control.
I'd rather wait for the market to make the decision first.
If bears regain control below the reclaimed resistance, I'll look for shorts.
If bulls prove they can build acceptance above 4100, I'll look for longs.
Until one of those scenarios is confirmed, staying flat is, in my opinion, the highest-probability trade.
Trade scenarios, not predictions.
Trade attivo
Gold dropped, following my preferred scenarioGoing further, I believe the drop will continue after the correction is over
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Le informazioni e le pubblicazioni non sono intese come, e non costituiscono, consulenza o raccomandazioni finanziarie, di investimento, di trading o di altro tipo fornite o approvate da TradingView. Per ulteriori informazioni, consultare i Termini di utilizzo.
🎯 Want More Trading Ideas?
📈 Join the FREE Forex & Gold Channel
👉 t.me/intradaytradingsignals
💎 Join the FREE Crypto Channel
👉 t.me/FanCryptocurrency
📈 Join the FREE Forex & Gold Channel
👉 t.me/intradaytradingsignals
💎 Join the FREE Crypto Channel
👉 t.me/FanCryptocurrency
Pubblicazioni correlate
Declinazione di responsabilità
Le informazioni e le pubblicazioni non sono intese come, e non costituiscono, consulenza o raccomandazioni finanziarie, di investimento, di trading o di altro tipo fornite o approvate da TradingView. Per ulteriori informazioni, consultare i Termini di utilizzo.