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The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 87%.

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Investors have also bet on two declines in September and December. This limits the room for further declines in the USD, unless the Fed accelerates the pace of interest rate cuts in the rest of the year. However, this possibility is low as almost all Fed members are concerned about rising inflation again.

The decline of the euro also contributed to the USD's rise.

It can be seen that the USD's recovery is not strong enough to reverse the greenback's downward trend, but it has also negatively affected gold prices.

Gold is also under profit-taking pressure after the previous strong increases.

Precious metals are also less attractive when US stocks have positive developments. Stock markets around the world often have extremely active trading in September and October. The strong cash flow into this channel reduces the appeal of the gold market.
Trade attivo
The US dollar has recovered from a sharp decline after the Jackson Hole conference, when expectations of a September interest rate cut were almost fully priced in. The probability of the US Federal Reserve cutting 25 basis points at its September 17 meeting is about 87%.

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