Gold topped in late January and has spent the first half of the year in a corrective phase. I think that correction is now complete, and the next impulsive leg higher is beginning. Here is the full reasoning.
The big picture (Monthly)
Gold has been advancing in one large five-wave sequence for decades — wave 1 into 1980, a long wave 2, wave 3 into 2012, wave 4 into 2015, and wave 5 running since.
Where we are in the final wave 5 (Weekly)
Within that structure: wave (1) completed in 2020, wave (2) in 2022, wave (3) topped at the January all-time high, and wave (4) is the correction we have just seen.
The correction up close (12H)
Wave (4) unfolded as a complex W-X-Y. The final subwaves of wave y formed an ending diagonal, a pattern that usually marks exhaustion and tends to be followed by a sharp reversal.
Confluence beyond the waves
-Seasonality: across 10, 15 and 30-year windows, gold has tended to bottom near the end of June and strengthen into autumn. This year's low landed in that window.
Momentum: the daily MACD has crossed up. RSI came out of oversold — a stretch last seen in October 2023, ahead of a strong rally.
Divergence: price made a lower low while RSI and MACD made higher lows, on both the 4H and the daily. Momentum turned before price did.
Positioning (COT, futures): large speculators have trimmed their net longs from last year's extremes down to around 181k. The trade is no longer crowded — it has reset, with room to build.
Expectation
I expect wave (5) to complete this larger cycle and carry gold toward new all-time highs.
Invalidation
This remains a bullish structure as long as the wave (4) low holds. A sustained break below it would tell me that the correction isn't finished and Wave IV is going a little deeper.
I am on the bullish side. What do you think?
The big picture (Monthly)
Gold has been advancing in one large five-wave sequence for decades — wave 1 into 1980, a long wave 2, wave 3 into 2012, wave 4 into 2015, and wave 5 running since.
Where we are in the final wave 5 (Weekly)
Within that structure: wave (1) completed in 2020, wave (2) in 2022, wave (3) topped at the January all-time high, and wave (4) is the correction we have just seen.
The correction up close (12H)
Wave (4) unfolded as a complex W-X-Y. The final subwaves of wave y formed an ending diagonal, a pattern that usually marks exhaustion and tends to be followed by a sharp reversal.
Confluence beyond the waves
-Seasonality: across 10, 15 and 30-year windows, gold has tended to bottom near the end of June and strengthen into autumn. This year's low landed in that window.
Momentum: the daily MACD has crossed up. RSI came out of oversold — a stretch last seen in October 2023, ahead of a strong rally.
Divergence: price made a lower low while RSI and MACD made higher lows, on both the 4H and the daily. Momentum turned before price did.
Positioning (COT, futures): large speculators have trimmed their net longs from last year's extremes down to around 181k. The trade is no longer crowded — it has reset, with room to build.
Expectation
I expect wave (5) to complete this larger cycle and carry gold toward new all-time highs.
Invalidation
This remains a bullish structure as long as the wave (4) low holds. A sustained break below it would tell me that the correction isn't finished and Wave IV is going a little deeper.
I am on the bullish side. What do you think?
Trade attivo
Trade chiuso manualmente
Overall, the bullish structure remains intact. However, the structure on the lower time frames has changed, which is why I closed this trade at break-even.We're looking for a re-entry now that aligns with the current structure on the lower time frames.
Patience is extremely important here :)
WaveMaster- predicting markets with precision ✅
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WaveMaster- predicting markets with precision ✅
Declinazione di responsabilità
Le informazioni e le pubblicazioni non sono intese come, e non costituiscono, consulenza o raccomandazioni finanziarie, di investimento, di trading o di altro tipo fornite o approvate da TradingView. Per ulteriori informazioni, consultare i Termini di utilizzo.