Hi everyone,
At the beginning of 2026, Gold (XAU/USD) reached a historic high, driven primarily by escalating geopolitical tensions and direct conflict between the US and Iran. As negotiations progressed and ceasefire/deal announcements emerged, risk sentiment improved. This led investors to withdraw capital from the safe-haven asset, pushing Gold into a clear bearish trend.
From a technical perspective, on higher timeframes, the price is currently testing key zones in search of fresh buyers. While Gold remains highly sensitive to global political and macroeconomic news, my base-case outlook for the remainder of 2026 is cautiously bearish. I do not expect new all-time highs this year and anticipate continued corrective pressure.
Here are the three main scenarios I am monitoring:
Scene N1 (Probability: 50%) – Most Likely
Break and retest of the descending trendline, followed by rejection from the prior downtrend high (resistance zone). This should lead to a continuation lower toward deeper support levels.
Scene N2 (Probability: 30%)
Direct bounce from the current descending trendline support without breaking higher. This would result in immediate continuation to the downside.
Scene N3 (Probability: 20%) – Bullish Alternative
Strong breakout above all major resistances and the descending trendline. This would invalidate the bearish structure and open the door for a more significant recovery.
Key Takeaways:
Geopolitical de-escalation has reduced safe-haven demand.
Higher timeframe structure remains bearish for now.
Watch price reaction around the descending trendline and horizontal resistance levels closely.
This is not financial advice — always manage your risk and conduct your own analysis.
At the beginning of 2026, Gold (XAU/USD) reached a historic high, driven primarily by escalating geopolitical tensions and direct conflict between the US and Iran. As negotiations progressed and ceasefire/deal announcements emerged, risk sentiment improved. This led investors to withdraw capital from the safe-haven asset, pushing Gold into a clear bearish trend.
From a technical perspective, on higher timeframes, the price is currently testing key zones in search of fresh buyers. While Gold remains highly sensitive to global political and macroeconomic news, my base-case outlook for the remainder of 2026 is cautiously bearish. I do not expect new all-time highs this year and anticipate continued corrective pressure.
Here are the three main scenarios I am monitoring:
Scene N1 (Probability: 50%) – Most Likely
Break and retest of the descending trendline, followed by rejection from the prior downtrend high (resistance zone). This should lead to a continuation lower toward deeper support levels.
Scene N2 (Probability: 30%)
Direct bounce from the current descending trendline support without breaking higher. This would result in immediate continuation to the downside.
Scene N3 (Probability: 20%) – Bullish Alternative
Strong breakout above all major resistances and the descending trendline. This would invalidate the bearish structure and open the door for a more significant recovery.
Key Takeaways:
Geopolitical de-escalation has reduced safe-haven demand.
Higher timeframe structure remains bearish for now.
Watch price reaction around the descending trendline and horizontal resistance levels closely.
This is not financial advice — always manage your risk and conduct your own analysis.
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Declinazione di responsabilità
Le informazioni e le pubblicazioni non sono intese come, e non costituiscono, consulenza o raccomandazioni finanziarie, di investimento, di trading o di altro tipo fornite o approvate da TradingView. Per ulteriori informazioni, consultare i Termini di utilizzo.