Gold is showing signs of short-term weakness after failing to extend cleanly above the upper reaction area. From Kelly’s view, the current chart suggests that XAUUSD may be forming a bearish Elliott structure, with price now preparing for a possible continuation lower if the Sell wave 3 zone continues to hold.
The key idea is simple: gold may still rebound slightly, but the structure favours downside continuation while price remains below resistance.
⟡ Market structure
The chart shows gold reacted strongly from the previous bullish move, but buyers are now losing momentum near the 4,380–4,400 area. Price is currently trading around 4,380, directly under the marked Sell wave 3 zone.
This area is important because it may act as the next bearish reaction point. If gold retests 4,395–4,410 and sellers defend that zone, the market may continue lower towards the 4,330–4,345 buy zone first.
If bearish pressure expands, the next deeper target is around 4,270–4,285, where the chart marks the possible End wave 5 area.
➤ Key levels
◌ 4,395–4,410: Sell wave 3 zone and main resistance
◌ 4,380: current price reaction area
◌ 4,360–4,365: short-term support / first bearish checkpoint
◌ 4,330–4,345: buy zone and wave 3 target area
◌ 4,270–4,285: End wave 5 target zone
◌ Above 4,420: area where the bearish setup starts to weaken
⌁ Elliott Wave view
From an Elliott Wave perspective, gold may be starting a new bearish 5-wave sequence after the recent bullish recovery slowed down.
Wave 1 may be forming from the current rejection area.
Wave 2 may create a small rebound back into the 4,395–4,410 sell zone.
Wave 3 could then push price lower towards the 4,330–4,345 buy zone.
Wave 4 may create a short corrective rebound from that support.
Wave 5 may continue towards 4,270–4,285 if sellers keep control.
This is why Kelly is not treating the current rebound as a strong bullish continuation yet. The market is still below a key resistance zone, and the Elliott structure is leaning bearish.
▸ Trading scenario
Preferred scenario: wait for gold to retest the Sell wave 3 zone and show bearish confirmation.
Sell zone: 4,395–4,410 if rejection appears
Stop loss: above the confirmed rejection high or above 4,420
Take profit 1: 4,360
Take profit 2: 4,330–4,345
Take profit 3: 4,270–4,285
Alternative scenario: if gold breaks above 4,420 and holds strongly, the bearish Elliott setup weakens. In that case, price may continue a larger bullish recovery before a new sell structure becomes clear.
⌁ Kelly’s view
For Kelly, gold is now in a bearish reaction structure. The current price is below the main sell zone, and the next clean setup is to wait for rejection before following the downside wave.
Gold may still bounce first.
But if 4,395–4,410 holds as resistance, the next Elliott move may continue lower towards 4,330 and 4,280.
Share your view below.
Trade attivo
The Sell scenario hit the profit target precisely. The wave structure is moving in the expected direction. Take partial profits and wait for the real-time scenario I’ll share next.
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📌 New analysis published daily
🔔 Follow this profile for real-time updates
⚠️ This is personal analysis, not financial advice
Daily GOLD and Forex updates: t.me/+SOSI26CZOJ1mZDhl
🔔 Follow this profile for real-time updates
⚠️ This is personal analysis, not financial advice
Daily GOLD and Forex updates: t.me/+SOSI26CZOJ1mZDhl
Pubblicazioni correlate
Declinazione di responsabilità
Le informazioni e le pubblicazioni non sono intese come, e non costituiscono, consulenza o raccomandazioni finanziarie, di investimento, di trading o di altro tipo fornite o approvate da TradingView. Per ulteriori informazioni, consultare i Termini di utilizzo.