New week!
Welcome to my weekly XAU market analysis.
1. Macro Events to Watch This week
① US-Iran Peace Developments
The US and Iran have reached a preliminary peace agreement and plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The official signing ceremony is expected to take place in Switzerland on June 19.
This is a positive macro development for risk sentiment, with crude oil already pulling back toward the $80 area.
② June 18 – FOMC
My view:
I don't expect Kevin Warsh to deliver a rate hike. However, the Fed could signal a combination of rate cuts while maintaining QT.
As this would be Warsh's first FOMC appearance, expect elevated volatility and be prepared for aggressive market moves.
③ SPDR Gold Trust
As of last Friday, SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest Gold ETF, reported no change in holdings for two consecutive sessions.
This suggests institutional money remains on the sidelines, with no meaningful accumulation or distribution for now.
2. Chart Analysis
Gold broke below the previous daily low around 4100 last week before finding support at a weekly bullish order block (4030-3930).
Price has since reclaimed the 4100 level, leaving room for a potential weekly bullish reversal.
Following the CME open today, Gold gapped higher and later swept the 4360 high during the US session, while printing a fake breakout into the H1 supply zone.
At the moment, Gold is forming a bearish wedge on the H1 chart, making breakout longs a low-probability setup.
Trading Plan
XAUUSD Short
Entry: 4350 (waiting for a confirmed bearish wedge breakdown)
SL: 4370
TP: 4250 / 4100
XAUUSD Long -1
Entry: 4210–4190 (Key Fib levels + VAH reaction zone)
SL: 4170
TP: 4350 / Open
XAUUSD Long -2 (HTF Buy Setup)
Entry: 4080 (Support zone + nPOC)
SL: 4020
TP: 4160 / Open
Final Thoughts
This week's calendar is packed with high-impact macro events, so expect elevated volatility.
While Gold may still experience sharp intraday swings, the weekly structure continues to favor a potential rebound.
For now, I prefer buying the dip rather than chasing highs, with swing trades offering the best risk-to-reward opportunities.
Welcome to my weekly XAU market analysis.
1. Macro Events to Watch This week
① US-Iran Peace Developments
The US and Iran have reached a preliminary peace agreement and plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The official signing ceremony is expected to take place in Switzerland on June 19.
This is a positive macro development for risk sentiment, with crude oil already pulling back toward the $80 area.
② June 18 – FOMC
My view:
I don't expect Kevin Warsh to deliver a rate hike. However, the Fed could signal a combination of rate cuts while maintaining QT.
As this would be Warsh's first FOMC appearance, expect elevated volatility and be prepared for aggressive market moves.
③ SPDR Gold Trust
As of last Friday, SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest Gold ETF, reported no change in holdings for two consecutive sessions.
This suggests institutional money remains on the sidelines, with no meaningful accumulation or distribution for now.
2. Chart Analysis
Gold broke below the previous daily low around 4100 last week before finding support at a weekly bullish order block (4030-3930).
Price has since reclaimed the 4100 level, leaving room for a potential weekly bullish reversal.
Following the CME open today, Gold gapped higher and later swept the 4360 high during the US session, while printing a fake breakout into the H1 supply zone.
At the moment, Gold is forming a bearish wedge on the H1 chart, making breakout longs a low-probability setup.
Trading Plan
XAUUSD Short
Entry: 4350 (waiting for a confirmed bearish wedge breakdown)
SL: 4370
TP: 4250 / 4100
XAUUSD Long -1
Entry: 4210–4190 (Key Fib levels + VAH reaction zone)
SL: 4170
TP: 4350 / Open
XAUUSD Long -2 (HTF Buy Setup)
Entry: 4080 (Support zone + nPOC)
SL: 4020
TP: 4160 / Open
Final Thoughts
This week's calendar is packed with high-impact macro events, so expect elevated volatility.
While Gold may still experience sharp intraday swings, the weekly structure continues to favor a potential rebound.
For now, I prefer buying the dip rather than chasing highs, with swing trades offering the best risk-to-reward opportunities.
Trade attivo
My friends, gold has dropped nearly 1500 pips from supply zone. Unfortunately, the shorts were stopped out by a fake move before the data release. On the bright side, our #1 long from the Buy zone is already up nearly 1400 pips. Congratulations everyone!
Declinazione di responsabilità
Le informazioni e le pubblicazioni non sono intese come, e non costituiscono, consulenza o raccomandazioni finanziarie, di investimento, di trading o di altro tipo fornite o approvate da TradingView. Per ulteriori informazioni, consultare i Termini di utilizzo.
Declinazione di responsabilità
Le informazioni e le pubblicazioni non sono intese come, e non costituiscono, consulenza o raccomandazioni finanziarie, di investimento, di trading o di altro tipo fornite o approvate da TradingView. Per ulteriori informazioni, consultare i Termini di utilizzo.