Short
Short 
Long
Crude Oil Flashback Update: Bearish Scenario Gains TractionBack on May 13 and then on May 25, we discussed crude oil's ongoing sideways consolidation and highlighted the possibility that the market was nearing the end of a larger corrective pattern. Since then, price action has become increasingly interesting as crude oil starts to break beneath key support levels.
Crude oil is in a bit of a tricky position and has been trading sideways for quite some time now. We have been tracking an abcde triangle within wave B for the last two to three months, which may have actually completed back in May, unless the alternative scenario remains in play.
Now that the market is breaking below the lower triangle trendline, we should watch for additional weakness within a higher-degree wave C decline that can unfold as a lower-degree five-wave bearish cycle. In fact, crude oil may already be in the middle stages of wave (3), which is typically the strongest segment of an impulsive move.
The latest weakness accelerated after President Trump said that the United States was close to reaching an agreement with Iran, raising hopes for a diplomatic resolution and potentially increasing future oil supply. As such, traders should be aware of further bearish continuation, while keeping an eye on short-term intraday pullbacks that could offer temporary relief rallies.
However, there is still an alternative count to consider. If crude oil suddenly rallies back toward the 95 area, then the bearish triangle consolidation may still be ongoing, with wave E yet to unfold before the larger downtrend resumes.
For now, the break beneath triangle support gives the bearish outlook the upper hand, suggesting that wave C lower may already be underway. 
Short
Short
EURUSD Resistance at1.16000 as Hot CPI Boosts the US Dollar!Hey Traders,
In today's trading session, we are monitoring EURUSD for a potential selling opportunity around the 1.16000 zone. EURUSD is trading within a broader downtrend and is currently in a corrective phase, with price approaching the 1.16000 resistance area, a key support-turned-resistance level that could act as a barrier to further upside.
From a fundamental perspective, today's U.S. CPI data came in strong enough to reinforce the higher-for-longer interest rate narrative, supporting Treasury yields and strengthening the U.S. Dollar. As markets continue to scale back expectations for aggressive Fed rate cuts, the dollar remains well supported across the board.
This creates a challenging environment for EURUSD, particularly as the pair rallies into a major technical resistance zone. With the Fed maintaining a relatively hawkish stance compared to other major central banks, any rejection from the 1.16000 area could attract renewed selling interest.
As long as price remains below the 1.16000 resistance zone, the bearish structure remains intact, and we anticipate continuation toward lower support levels.
Trade safe,Joe.
SPY - A Swing Low Was Just SweptSPY Has Given Back Most of the April Rally in Two Weeks. A Swing Low Was Just Swept.
Whether that sweep holds or fails is this morning's question.
Structural Assessment
SOM is reading Impulse Cont. Bear on SPY 1H.
15 primary FVGs alive, 12 touched. The obligation pool
built during the April-May rally is being systematically
worked. 12 touched against 15 primary means 80 percent
of current obligations have been engaged. The market is
not ignoring structure on the way down.
ACE is GREEN with Q2 neutral. CQI 58.5. Last Ann was
Bull CQI 71.22, 156 bars ago. Direction neutral against
a bull announcement from 156 bars back. The conviction
that was present at the high has fully decayed.
IMP is scoring 1/5. NONE mode. WAIT.
SwLo Swept: YES. A swing low was taken out.
RCZ at 26th pct, ATR at 48th. Neither elevated.
Vol Elev at 2nd percentile -- volume has not confirmed
the sweep. A swing low sweep without volume is a
structural note, not a signal.
Anti-signal: clear. The sweep itself is not flagged
as a liquidity grab by the stack -- it cleared cleanly.
Tactical Cheat Sheet
Resistance: 732-733 -- nearest overhead level
Key resistance: 737.57-738.47 -- prior FVG cluster base
Hard resistance: 741-742 -- dense FVG overhead
Current price: 730.63
Support: 728.00 -- intraday structural level
Key support: 721.23 -- session Low, thesis line
Extended support: 703.07 -- daily obligation cluster
SwLo Swept context:
The swing low sweep with Vol Elev at 2nd percentile
is not a confirmed breakdown. It is a probe. Price
tested below the prior low without volume conviction.
Two outcomes follow from here:
Reclaim path (sweep as liquidity grab):
Price reclaims 732 at open with Vol Elev entering
IMP scores 1+ with PART mode loading
The sweep was a stop run, not a breakdown
Target: 737-742 FVG cluster fill
Continuation path (sweep as breakdown):
Price fails to reclaim 732 on first attempt
Vol Elev enters and drives price through 728
IMP loads EXT mode with ATR expanding
Target: 721.23 test
What the Stack Is Watching
The swing low sweep is the event. Volume is the
verdict. If volume does not enter at the open to
confirm direction, this is noise in a bear structure,
not a signal in either direction.
RCZ at 26th pct is the watch variable. If it starts
climbing toward 60th in the first hour, the
participation sub-system is activating. That is when
the sweep resolves into a tradeable setup.
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Built with SYNTHESIS v3.3 | SOM / ACE / IMP / SYNTHESIS
Study, not financial advice. AUDUSD Bearish After Strong US Inflation Data!Hey Traders,
In today's trading session, we are monitoring AUDUSD for a potential selling opportunity around the 0.70500 zone. AUDUSD is trading in a broader downtrend and is currently in a corrective phase, with price approaching the 0.70500 resistance area, a key support-turned-resistance zone that could provide an attractive opportunity for bearish continuation.
From a fundamental perspective, today's U.S. CPI data came in hotter than expected, reinforcing the market's higher-for-longer interest rate expectations and providing fresh support for the U.S. Dollar. The stronger inflation reading has reduced expectations for near-term Fed easing, pushing Treasury yields higher and increasing demand for the greenback.
For AUDUSD, this creates a difficult backdrop. As a risk-sensitive currency, the Australian Dollar tends to struggle when the U.S. Dollar strengthens and yields move higher. With markets reassessing the outlook for Fed policy following the CPI release, the balance of risks continues to favor USD strength over AUD.
With price now correcting into the 0.70500 resistance zone within a broader bearish structure, rallies continue to look attractive for sellers.
As long as price remains below the 0.70500 resistance zone, the bearish trend remains intact, and we anticipate continuation toward lower support levels.
Trade safe, Joe.
