Seasonality

What the Nifty/Gold Ratio is Screaming History is Rhyming: Is 2026 the New March 2020? What the Nifty/Gold Ratio is Screaming I’ve been staring at the Nifty/XAUINRG ratio chart lately, and honestly, it’s the only thing keeping my heart rate down while the news headlines are screaming about wars and market crashes. For those who don’t know, this ratio is simple: you take the Nifty 50 and divide it by the price of 1 gram of gold in India. It’s like a “Value Meter” for the Indian economy. When it’s high, stocks are expensive. When it

M15 RED FOLDER UPDATE On M15, a clear Order Block has formed and the market has already swept the sell-side liquidity. Current price action suggests a potential shift toward low-resistance liquidity, increasing the probability of a buy-side liquidity run. At this stage, the key is patience. Waiting for the upcoming news catalyst and confirmation will provide better clarity before considering any position. Structure remains valid unless invalidated by strong displacement against the bias. If you find this analysis hel

The Digital Footprint of Bitcoin Market Sentiment Do google trends actually determine where the market could go within the next week? INDEX:BTCUSD While there is a floating rumor online that "google trends" can be used to predict market sentiment for bitcoin, I empirically tested that hypothesis through the following procedures (repository is available) 1. Collecting and Aligning Two Daily Datasets: First, I acquired the daily price history for Bitcoin (BTC/USD) and the corresponding daily search interest data for the keyword "bitcoin" fro

Bullish Continuation Toward ERL Following the SBG (sell-side liquidity sweep), price delivered strong bullish displacement targeting ERL. The subsequent daily close above ERL supports a maintained bullish bias. The prior sell-side FVG was disrespected, reflecting strong demand presence. Price continues to reject lows while breaking short-term highs, confirming internal strength in market structure. Currently, price is reacting from a bullish Order Block. Holding above this zone keeps upside liquidity as the primary objective.

Moon Phases Strategy Attempt (Confirmation Tool)I'm creating this idea to test a strategy using moon phases and a single moving average. This is an experimental idea for me to test this strategy and see how well it preforms theoretically. I'll conclude this idea if via testing we are able to see consistent results. This idea is only for the daily timeframe until further notice. I may add to or change the strategy as we go along but I will attempt not to by much. The moving average is a 28 day simple moving average which I call the lunar movi

Prediction Is Loud. Accumulation Is Quiet.Right now the market feels uncertain: Some expect a collapse. Some expect a new breakout. But personally, I’m less focused on short-term prediction and more on long-term positioning. I don’t believe Bitcoin becomes worthless. And when I zoom out, I don’t try to guess every move. I look for moments where fear is louder than structure. For me, that’s where accumulation starts becoming interesting. 📊 Why I look beyond short-term noise Markets move in cycles of excitement and doubt. What stands

COT Report: Uncovering the "New Crop" Signal How to Refine COT Analysis Using Term-Structure Alignment ("New Crop" Signal) Most traders who use the Commitments of Traders (COT) report focus only on the aggregated Commercial net position from the Legacy combined report. While this provides a broad view of positioning, it blends all contract months together and hides how risk is distributed across the forward curve. In this tutorial, we explore a more granular approach: comparing the standard Legacy Futures – Total Positions data with

Sugar SB Futures: Extreme COT Divergence – Short Squeeze Ahead? ICEUS:SB1! 🔎 Market Situation The latest COT report shows one of the most extreme positioning imbalances in 18 years for Sugar #11: • Commercials: Net Long 128,130 contracts → 2nd highest since 2007 (only surpassed in Sep/Oct 2020 with ~160k). • Non-Commercials (Funds): Net Short –125,628 contracts, almost a mirror image. • COT Index: above 80% since July, peaking at 100% → continuous accumulation by Commercials. • Open Interest: very high → massive market participation. • On-Balance Vo

GBPCAD BUY GBPCAD reaching a strong daily support, we have had a sell off from 1.88000 where i see price pushing back to over the course of february if we see a good price from GBP's gdp released on the 12th. usually a strong month for the pair also. support.1.84000 targeting highs 1.88000

by Bulmancapitalmarkets

MGC Context: Weekly Structural Repair & The 5,000 Sentinel Siege MGC Context: Weekly Structural Repair & The 5,000 Sentinel Siege Related Tickers: COMEX_MINI:MGCG2026, COMEX:GC1!, CAPITALCOM:DXY Weekly Recap (Feb 16 – Feb 20, 2026) 1. Market Context (Value Migration & Repair) The auction transitioned from a defensive "washout" into a powerful Vertical Initiative phase mid-week. • The Mid-Week Surge: Wednesday/Thursday successfully erased the previous liquidation. • Structure: Multiple Single Print sequences confirm OTF Buyers are back. The

GRTUSDT W-Pattern Signals Trend Reversal GRTUSDT is presenting a potential W-pattern (double bottom) reversal structure, with both Bottom 1 and Bottom 2 clearly defined on the chart. The second bottom formed with strong structural respect, indicating seller exhaustion and a shift in market control. This makes the Bottom 2 zone a strategic accumulation region, provided price continues to hold above this base. The immediate resistance remains the pattern neckline, which also acts as the primary validation level for the bullish path.

MGC Context: Vertical Initiative & The FOMC "Truth Serum" Auctio MGC Context: Vertical Initiative & The FOMC "Truth Serum" Auction Related Tickers: COMEX_MINI:MGCG2026, COMEX:GC1!, CAPITALCOM:DXY Analysis 1. Market Context (Vertical Initiative Phase) Gold has transitioned into a powerful Vertical Initiative phase today. • The Recovery: Rally has completely erased yesterday’s selling pressure which targeted the 4,900 shelf. • The Structure: Profile is filled with Single Prints , signaling high-conviction Initiative Buying from OTF particip

BITCOIN MACRO UPDATE LIFE CYCLE, STRUCTURE & PRICE LEVELS It is timely to revisit the typical crypto market cycle, as Bitcoin continues to respect it with remarkable precision. The macro top was confirmed in October, when BTC tested the $126,000 zone, marking the current cycle ATH. Since that rejection, price has transitioned into a prolonged consolidation phase, which structurally aligns with the early stages of a broader bear market cycle. From a wave structure perspective, price action is developing an extended corrective formation (ABC). The in

BITCOIN CYCLE Every data point perfectly plays a pattern here. Even though I don't take trades based on such patterns, but its still a good idea to look at things from a different lens. Let's see how this plays out in the next 4 years. Let's see who steals this and calls it their analysis, because that's how CT is. Cheers.

VOLTAS BREAKOUT We can go long in voltas or look for buy on dips in Voltas as it is also giving a breakout of it 52 week highs and also an important resistance of 1500. Target- 1600, 1700, 1750 SL 1420 Take a look at the chart image and you will understand how it took support of a trendline and started this rally. Summer is also coming up, hence a seasonality factor also kicks in for VOLTAS,HAVELLS and BLUESTAR, Keep a watch on this sector. Disclaimer- This is just for educational purpose. JAI SHREE RAM

by Sanatan_Trader

BTC RANGE This is the range before BTC find a bottom. Oct - Nov 2026 is when im expecting a macro low to form. Till then stack cash and wait. Next cycle, bet big on leverage....UNLESS, a war breakout. If the economy gets stable, we could expect macro low to form and then look for 1) Weekly Displacement and Structure shift 2) Weekly Breaker + FVG BINGO

WTI CRUDE OIL Price respected the daily fvg(grey shaded). Also bounced off the weekly breaker(support level). Price is anticipated to reach $70 as long the geopolitical remains as they are and the market conditions allow the strategy/approach to play out.

by Tefo_Sekabate

Dow/Gold flashes GFC warning Top: Dow / Gold ratio Bottom: SP:SPX The Dow/Gold ratio shows How many ounces of gold does it take to buy the Dow Jones Industrial Average. It gives insight into the question “who’s winning: paper or metal?” It moves often coincide with large inflection points. The current level typical coincides with stock market tops: 1929 1972 1974 2008

XAUUSD (Gold) – HTF FVG Reaction | 1H This chart highlights higher-timeframe Fair Value Gaps (H1/H4) and recent session liquidity levels. Price is currently reacting within a premium area while previous H1 imbalance zones remain unmitigated below. The idea demonstrates how price has historically interacted with imbalance and liquidity zones on Gold. No directional bias is assumed; this is a technical structure overview only. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This publication is for educational and analytical purposes only. It does not constitute inve

by Selena_FX_Trader

Short on Soybeans CFD (Ticker SOYBNUSD) OANDA:SOYBNUSD Technicals: - short trade in horizontal channel - price dived under 10.50-10.70 ressistance zone following false breakout - intended target at support zone 9.83-9.93 - scenario invalidated if 2 bars close above 10.68 Fundamentals: - seasonality criteria: soybean usually had descending movements in periods february - april if bear / accumulation and ascending movements while bull / distribution phase - since we are still in bear market and there is no confirmation

new #ATH coming soon Indian stock markets look oversold when compared to the Emerging Markets Index. There is a very high chance new #ATH is coming soon.

by Abhilash_dasari

AUDNZD 1D 4 Feb. 2026 According to my original analysis (not shown here), AUDNZD is in an overbought condition. The timing of the short entry can be determined using any technical analysis you prefer. The main concern is that this currency pair carries a negative swap, so a trading approach focused on capital gains is required.

OIL SHOWING PRICE BREAKDOWN, MAY FALL BELOW 62.50!Crude oil structure breaks down on lower timeframe. N.B! - USOIL price might not follow the drawn lines . Actual price movements may likely differ from the forecast. - Let emotions and sentiments work for you - ALWAYS Use Proper Risk Management In Your Trades #usoil #ukoil

Bearish I am bearish on USD until the end of April, based on the market structure shift on the chart and upcoming U.S. fundamental. The tow highlighted zones are my entry areas. I will wait for clear price action conformation and monitor the market reaction in these zones before taking any positions.