OPEN-SOURCE SCRIPT
BEDROCK Gated Macro Spot Cycle Model
BEDROCK condenses several independent long-term Bitcoin valuation models into a single transparent 0–100 score, then maps that score onto a seven-tier ladder running from deep value to cycle-top risk — with capitulation and euphoria gates that hold back the two most common false signals at each extreme. It is built for spot investors making multi-month and multi-year allocation decisions, not for short-term trading.
The reference card below shows how to read the model and how each tier behaves:
█ WHAT IT DOES
BEDROCK answers one question: where does price sit inside its macro cycle right now? Rather than a single oscillator, it scores a basket of slow-moving valuation measures, normalizes each to a common 0–100 "cheap → expensive" scale, blends them into a weighted composite, and classifies the result into an actionable tier with a suggested accumulation or distribution size. A higher composite means greater long-term value and lower risk; a lower composite means the market is stretched and risk is rising.
█ HOW IT WORKS
The composite is built from four independent blocs, any of which can be reweighted or disabled:
Each metric is mapped to 0–100 through its own linear calibration between a deep-value anchor and an expensive anchor, so every leg speaks the same language before being combined. Weights are auto-renormalized over whatever blocs are actually available — so the model stays coherent on early history where the 200-week isn't yet populated, or when MVRV is turned off. It simply reweights the parts it has.
█ THE TWO GATES — THE CORE IDEA
A raw valuation score has two classic failure modes: it screams "generational buy" on the first leg down of a bear market, and it screams "top" every time price gets mildly extended. BEDROCK addresses both with directional gates that only ever cap the tier toward the middle — they never fabricate a signal, and they never block the core accumulate or trim reads.
Because both gates only cap toward neutral, accumulation signals are never suppressed and trim signals are never suppressed. The gates restrain only the extreme calls, and only until the evidence is actually there.
█ READING THE INDICATOR
█ THE SEVEN TIERS
Each tier also outputs a suggested DCA-in or trim-out multiplier, so the signal is sized rather than binary.
█ HOW TO USE IT
█ WHAT MAKES IT ORIGINAL
BEDROCK is not a single valuation ratio dressed up as an oscillator. The combination is the point: a transparent additive composite over independent metrics, a deliberate collinearity fix that collapses the moving-average family into one bounded bloc, a dual directional-gate system that suppresses the two most common false signals at both extremes without ever blocking the core reads, and sized accumulate/trim output instead of a bare number. Every metric, weight, calibration anchor, and gate threshold is exposed as an input, so the entire model is auditable and tunable — nothing is hidden.
█ NOTES & LIMITATIONS
BEDROCK is a long-horizon valuation tool, not a precise top/bottom timer and not a short-term trading system. It is designed to keep you positioned in the statistically favorable portion of the cycle, not to nail exact turns. Several display themes are included. This script is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice — size your own risk and do your own research.
The reference card below shows how to read the model and how each tier behaves:
█ WHAT IT DOES
BEDROCK answers one question: where does price sit inside its macro cycle right now? Rather than a single oscillator, it scores a basket of slow-moving valuation measures, normalizes each to a common 0–100 "cheap → expensive" scale, blends them into a weighted composite, and classifies the result into an actionable tier with a suggested accumulation or distribution size. A higher composite means greater long-term value and lower risk; a lower composite means the market is stretched and risk is rising.
█ HOW IT WORKS
The composite is built from four independent blocs, any of which can be reweighted or disabled:
- Trailing cost-basis bloc — price relative to the 200-week SMA, the 2-year SMA, and the 200-day SMA (Mayer Multiple). These three are deliberately collapsed into a single averaged, bounded factor so the moving-average family is represented once and cannot dominate the score through collinearity.
- Drawdown from all-time high — how far price has fallen from its peak. The heaviest-weighted leg by default.
- Weekly RSI — long-term momentum, as secondary confirmation.
- MVRV Z-Score (optional) — an on-chain valuation leg you can enable and feed from an external source.
Each metric is mapped to 0–100 through its own linear calibration between a deep-value anchor and an expensive anchor, so every leg speaks the same language before being combined. Weights are auto-renormalized over whatever blocs are actually available — so the model stays coherent on early history where the 200-week isn't yet populated, or when MVRV is turned off. It simply reweights the parts it has.
█ THE TWO GATES — THE CORE IDEA
A raw valuation score has two classic failure modes: it screams "generational buy" on the first leg down of a bear market, and it screams "top" every time price gets mildly extended. BEDROCK addresses both with directional gates that only ever cap the tier toward the middle — they never fabricate a signal, and they never block the core accumulate or trim reads.
- Capitulation gate (bottom) — the two deepest tiers stay locked until the market shows genuine capitulation. Generational requires a large drawdown from the all-time high (or a deeply negative MVRV-Z); Deep Accumulation requires price at or below its 200-week basis. Until then the score is capped at Accumulation, so you keep buying value without prematurely committing everything.
- Euphoria gate (top) — the two riskiest tiers stay locked until multiple independent overheating signs agree across the 200-week multiple, weekly RSI, the Mayer Multiple, and MVRV-Z. Euphoria requires at least one confirmation; Cycle Top requires at least two. This is what stops the model from calling a top on every rally.
Because both gates only cap toward neutral, accumulation signals are never suppressed and trim signals are never suppressed. The gates restrain only the extreme calls, and only until the evidence is actually there.
█ READING THE INDICATOR
- Composite line — the 0–100 score, colored by its current tier.
- Background — shaded by tier for at-a-glance cycle context.
- Threshold lines — the tier boundaries.
- Markers — gated triangles mark transitions into accumulation tiers (up) and distribution tiers (down).
- Data table — live composite, current tier, suggested action, both gate states, and every underlying metric (200W and 2Y multiples, Mayer, drawdown, weekly RSI, MVRV).
█ THE SEVEN TIERS
- Generational Value — extremely rare deep value; aggressive accumulation.
- Deep Accumulation — excellent value; size up.
- Accumulation — good value; keep building.
- Neutral / Hold — fairly valued; hold.
- Expensive / Trim — above fair value; begin scaling out.
- Euphoria / Distribute — high risk; distribute and protect profit.
- Cycle Top / Exit — extreme; high-probability macro top.
Each tier also outputs a suggested DCA-in or trim-out multiplier, so the signal is sized rather than binary.
█ HOW TO USE IT
- Use it on Bitcoin spot or index charts such as
BTCUSD or $BINANCE:BTCUSDT. - Weekly is the primary timeframe; daily works as a secondary view.
- Accumulate through tiers 1–3, hold in tier 4, scale down in tiers 5–6, and treat tier 7 as exit territory.
- Built-in alerts fire on entry into each accumulation and distribution tier (gated).
█ WHAT MAKES IT ORIGINAL
BEDROCK is not a single valuation ratio dressed up as an oscillator. The combination is the point: a transparent additive composite over independent metrics, a deliberate collinearity fix that collapses the moving-average family into one bounded bloc, a dual directional-gate system that suppresses the two most common false signals at both extremes without ever blocking the core reads, and sized accumulate/trim output instead of a bare number. Every metric, weight, calibration anchor, and gate threshold is exposed as an input, so the entire model is auditable and tunable — nothing is hidden.
█ NOTES & LIMITATIONS
BEDROCK is a long-horizon valuation tool, not a precise top/bottom timer and not a short-term trading system. It is designed to keep you positioned in the statistically favorable portion of the cycle, not to nail exact turns. Several display themes are included. This script is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice — size your own risk and do your own research.
Script open-source
Nello spirito di TradingView, l'autore di questo script lo ha reso open source, in modo che i trader possano esaminarne e verificarne la funzionalità. Complimenti all'autore! Sebbene sia possibile utilizzarlo gratuitamente, ricordiamo che la ripubblicazione del codice è soggetta al nostro Regolamento.
Declinazione di responsabilità
Le informazioni e le pubblicazioni non sono intese come, e non costituiscono, consulenza o raccomandazioni finanziarie, di investimento, di trading o di altro tipo fornite o approvate da TradingView. Per ulteriori informazioni, consultare i Termini di utilizzo.
Script open-source
Nello spirito di TradingView, l'autore di questo script lo ha reso open source, in modo che i trader possano esaminarne e verificarne la funzionalità. Complimenti all'autore! Sebbene sia possibile utilizzarlo gratuitamente, ricordiamo che la ripubblicazione del codice è soggetta al nostro Regolamento.
Declinazione di responsabilità
Le informazioni e le pubblicazioni non sono intese come, e non costituiscono, consulenza o raccomandazioni finanziarie, di investimento, di trading o di altro tipo fornite o approvate da TradingView. Per ulteriori informazioni, consultare i Termini di utilizzo.