OPEN-SOURCE SCRIPT
88Targets - CVDD Pro
CVDD Pro — Bitcoin's Historical Floor and Cycle Top, On One Chart
THE IDEA IN ONE LINE
Every Bitcoin cycle, coins move from experienced long-term holders to new buyers. CVDD tracks the cumulative price at which that handover happened — and historically, Bitcoin's biggest bottoms formed right at that level. This indicator draws that floor, an accumulation zone above it, and a cycle-top estimate — all from real on-chain data.
WHAT YOU SEE
• Gold line — the raw CVDD floor, computed from on-chain data (Realized Cap minus cumulative transfer volume). Bitcoin's major bottoms (2015, 2018, 2022) formed at or near this line.
• Blue line — the practical bottom line, set slightly above the raw floor (Bitcoin historically bottoms a little above it, not exactly on it).
• Green shaded zone — the accumulation zone. Price entering here has historically meant late-stage capitulation territory.
• Red line — the cycle top estimate. Bitcoin's blow-off tops have been shrinking every cycle as the market matures; this line models that decay and compresses over time.
• Background highlights — soft green when price tags the bottom line, soft red when it tags the top line.
SIGNALS & ALERTS (3 built in)
• Zone entry (▽ marker + alert) — price entered the accumulation zone. A heads-up, not a buy signal.
• Zone exit upward (▲ marker + alert) — price climbed back OUT of the zone. Historically this confirmation marked the end of capitulation, near the start of new cycle legs.
• Top band touch (alert) — price reached the cycle top estimate, historically distribution territory.
HOW THE TOP MODEL WORKS (original)
Bitcoin's cycle tops used to overshoot the floor by huge multiples in its early years, and that overshoot has shrunk every cycle. The top line models this with a simple decaying multiple: it starts high in the early era and compresses toward a minimum as the market matures. The three settings controlling it are pre-fitted to the 2013 / 2017 / 2021 / 2025 tops and explained in plain language in their tooltips.
DATA & REQUIREMENTS
• Uses TradingView's integrated on-chain feeds: COINMETRICS:BTC_MARKETCAPREAL and GLASSNODE:BTC_TOTALVOLUME
• Bitcoin only — the script warns you if loaded on a non-BTC chart
• Best on Daily or Weekly with full history (e.g. BITSTAMP:BTCUSD)
SETTINGS
Every setting is written in plain language with a tooltip. The defaults are calibrated — most users never need to change anything. The Colors group lets you restyle every element.
HONEST LIMITATIONS — PLEASE READ
• Bitcoin has had only a handful of true cycle bottoms and tops in its entire history. That is a very small sample — these levels are historical references, not guarantees.
• The top model is fitted to past cycles. Market structure changes (ETFs, institutional holders) may change how future cycles behave in ways no historical model can anticipate.
• Nothing here predicts the future. This is a decision-support tool for cycle context — not financial advice and not a complete trading system. Always apply your own risk management.
CREDITS & ORIGINALITY
The CVDD concept was created by Willy Woo and is publicly documented. This script is an original, from-scratch implementation of that public concept using TradingView's on-chain data feeds, extended with an original cycle-top decay model, accumulation zone system, confirmation signals, and dashboard — none of which reuse code from other scripts.
THE IDEA IN ONE LINE
Every Bitcoin cycle, coins move from experienced long-term holders to new buyers. CVDD tracks the cumulative price at which that handover happened — and historically, Bitcoin's biggest bottoms formed right at that level. This indicator draws that floor, an accumulation zone above it, and a cycle-top estimate — all from real on-chain data.
WHAT YOU SEE
• Gold line — the raw CVDD floor, computed from on-chain data (Realized Cap minus cumulative transfer volume). Bitcoin's major bottoms (2015, 2018, 2022) formed at or near this line.
• Blue line — the practical bottom line, set slightly above the raw floor (Bitcoin historically bottoms a little above it, not exactly on it).
• Green shaded zone — the accumulation zone. Price entering here has historically meant late-stage capitulation territory.
• Red line — the cycle top estimate. Bitcoin's blow-off tops have been shrinking every cycle as the market matures; this line models that decay and compresses over time.
• Background highlights — soft green when price tags the bottom line, soft red when it tags the top line.
SIGNALS & ALERTS (3 built in)
• Zone entry (▽ marker + alert) — price entered the accumulation zone. A heads-up, not a buy signal.
• Zone exit upward (▲ marker + alert) — price climbed back OUT of the zone. Historically this confirmation marked the end of capitulation, near the start of new cycle legs.
• Top band touch (alert) — price reached the cycle top estimate, historically distribution territory.
HOW THE TOP MODEL WORKS (original)
Bitcoin's cycle tops used to overshoot the floor by huge multiples in its early years, and that overshoot has shrunk every cycle. The top line models this with a simple decaying multiple: it starts high in the early era and compresses toward a minimum as the market matures. The three settings controlling it are pre-fitted to the 2013 / 2017 / 2021 / 2025 tops and explained in plain language in their tooltips.
DATA & REQUIREMENTS
• Uses TradingView's integrated on-chain feeds: COINMETRICS:BTC_MARKETCAPREAL and GLASSNODE:BTC_TOTALVOLUME
• Bitcoin only — the script warns you if loaded on a non-BTC chart
• Best on Daily or Weekly with full history (e.g. BITSTAMP:BTCUSD)
SETTINGS
Every setting is written in plain language with a tooltip. The defaults are calibrated — most users never need to change anything. The Colors group lets you restyle every element.
HONEST LIMITATIONS — PLEASE READ
• Bitcoin has had only a handful of true cycle bottoms and tops in its entire history. That is a very small sample — these levels are historical references, not guarantees.
• The top model is fitted to past cycles. Market structure changes (ETFs, institutional holders) may change how future cycles behave in ways no historical model can anticipate.
• Nothing here predicts the future. This is a decision-support tool for cycle context — not financial advice and not a complete trading system. Always apply your own risk management.
CREDITS & ORIGINALITY
The CVDD concept was created by Willy Woo and is publicly documented. This script is an original, from-scratch implementation of that public concept using TradingView's on-chain data feeds, extended with an original cycle-top decay model, accumulation zone system, confirmation signals, and dashboard — none of which reuse code from other scripts.
Script open-source
Nello spirito di TradingView, l'autore di questo script lo ha reso open source, in modo che i trader possano esaminarne e verificarne la funzionalità. Complimenti all'autore! Sebbene sia possibile utilizzarlo gratuitamente, ricordiamo che la ripubblicazione del codice è soggetta al nostro Regolamento.
Declinazione di responsabilità
Le informazioni e le pubblicazioni non sono intese come, e non costituiscono, consulenza o raccomandazioni finanziarie, di investimento, di trading o di altro tipo fornite o approvate da TradingView. Per ulteriori informazioni, consultare i Termini di utilizzo.
Script open-source
Nello spirito di TradingView, l'autore di questo script lo ha reso open source, in modo che i trader possano esaminarne e verificarne la funzionalità. Complimenti all'autore! Sebbene sia possibile utilizzarlo gratuitamente, ricordiamo che la ripubblicazione del codice è soggetta al nostro Regolamento.
Declinazione di responsabilità
Le informazioni e le pubblicazioni non sono intese come, e non costituiscono, consulenza o raccomandazioni finanziarie, di investimento, di trading o di altro tipo fornite o approvate da TradingView. Per ulteriori informazioni, consultare i Termini di utilizzo.