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Order Flow System [v6]What it does overall
It's a separate panel indicator that sits below your price chart and tracks who is in control of the market — buyers or sellers — on every single bar using volume analysis and smart money concepts.
1. Buy/Sell Volume Estimation
Since Pine Script can't see actual tick data, it estimates which side was more aggressive on each bar. If price closed near the high, most volume was likely buying. If it closed near the low, most was selling. The formula splits the bar's total volume proportionally based on where price closed within the high/low range.
2. Bar Delta Histogram
The difference between estimated buy volume and sell volume on each bar. Green bars mean buyers were more aggressive, red bars mean sellers were. The taller the bar, the stronger the imbalance between the two sides.
3. Cumulative Delta (CVD)
It adds up every bar's delta over time into a running total. This line shows you the overall trend of buying vs selling pressure across the session. When CVD is rising, buyers are consistently in control. When it's falling, sellers are. The EMA of CVD acts as a signal line — when CVD crosses above it that's bullish, below is bearish.
4. Volume Imbalance
When buyers dominate more than 60% of a bar's volume the background flashes green. When sellers dominate more than 60% it flashes red. This highlights bars where one side completely overwhelmed the other.
5. Large Print Detection
When a bar's volume is significantly larger than the 20-bar average, it gets labeled. These are institutional-sized prints — someone placed a very large order. The label shows the volume size and whether it was net buying or selling.
6. Absorption Detection
This is one of the more powerful signals. It looks for situations where a large amount of selling is happening but price refuses to go down — or large buying but price won't go up. That means the opposing side is quietly absorbing all those orders, which often precedes a reversal.
7. SMT Divergence
Compares your chart's swing highs and lows against a correlated market like NQ vs ES. If ES makes a new low but NQ doesn't confirm it, smart money likely didn't participate in that move — signaling the low may be fake and a reversal is coming. Same logic in reverse for highs. A dashed line connects the two swing points and a label marks the signal.
8. Dashboard Table
A live readout in the top right corner showing Bar Delta, Cumulative Delta, Buy%, Sell%, Volume, CVD Signal, SMT Signal, and which symbol it's comparing against. All colors are fully customizable in the settings.
9. Alerts
Ten alert conditions covering every major signal — large prints, imbalance, absorption, CVD crossovers, and both SMT directions — so you can get notified without watching the screen. Indicatore

VWAP Acceptance Flow PRO
VWAP Acceptance Flow PRO
VWAP Acceptance Flow PRO is a multi-timeframe flow oscillator designed to measure market acceptance around a rolling VWAP. Instead of tracking price alone, the indicator evaluates whether the market is accepting or rejecting value and combines this information into a clean flow model optimized for fast-moving markets such as NASDAQ.
The indicator provides a real-time view of short-term flow, higher-timeframe alignment, momentum shifts, pullbacks, and re-acceptance signals.
CORE CONCEPT
Markets constantly move between two states:
• Acceptance → price is accepted above or below fair value.
• Rejection → price fails to hold value and rotates back.
VWAP Acceptance Flow PRO quantifies this process by combining:
1. Distance from VWAP
2. Velocity of VWAP displacement
3. Acceptance duration
4. VWAP slope
The result is a normalized flow engine that visualizes whether buyers or sellers are gaining control.
COMPONENTS
Chart Flow
The fastest flow line.
Measures current market pressure and reacts quickly to shifts in acceptance.
• Above zero = bullish acceptance
• Below zero = bearish acceptance
• Rising = increasing momentum
• Falling = weakening momentum
X5 Flow
Intermediate flow filter.
Represents the dominant short-term trend and helps remove noise from the Chart Flow.
• Above zero = bullish environment
• Below zero = bearish environment
X15 Flow
Institutional flow filter.
Represents the broader market bias.
This is the slowest and most stable component of the system.
• Positive = higher-timeframe buyers in control
• Negative = higher-timeframe sellers in control
ACCEPTANCE HISTOGRAM
The histogram displays:
Chart Flow − X5 Flow
This measures short-term acceleration relative to the dominant trend.
Green Histogram
• Bullish acceleration
• Momentum expanding
• Buyers gaining control
Red Histogram
• Bearish acceleration
• Momentum weakening
• Sellers gaining control
DYNAMIC ACCEPTANCE BANDS
The upper and lower bands are calculated from the average absolute flow value.
They adapt automatically to market volatility.
Inside Bands
• Normal market activity
Outside Bands
• Extreme acceptance conditions
• Trend extension
• Potential exhaustion
• Possible mean reversion
PULLBACK RADAR
The background highlights pullback opportunities inside strong trends.
Yellow Background
Bullish pullback.
Conditions:
• X15 Flow > 0
• X5 Flow > 0
• Chart Flow < 0
The larger trend remains bullish while short-term flow temporarily weakens.
Purple Background
Bearish pullback.
Conditions:
• X15 Flow < 0
• X5 Flow < 0
• Chart Flow > 0
The larger trend remains bearish while short-term flow temporarily rebounds.
RE-ACCEPTANCE SIGNALS
Signals occur when Chart Flow crosses X5 Flow.
Long Signal
Condition:
• Chart Flow crosses above X5 Flow
Interpretation:
Short-term acceptance is returning in favor of buyers.
Short Signal
Condition:
• Chart Flow crosses below X5 Flow
Interpretation:
Short-term acceptance is returning in favor of sellers.
These signals are designed to identify re-entry opportunities after pullbacks and consolidations.
FLOW SCORE
The Flow Score measures directional alignment across all three flow layers.
Range: -3 to +3
+3
• Strong bullish alignment
• All flow lines above zero
+2
• Bullish bias
+1
• Weak bullish bias
0
• Neutral market
-1
• Weak bearish bias
-2
• Bearish bias
-3
• Strong bearish alignment
• All flow lines below zero
ACCEPTANCE SCORE
The Acceptance Score measures the overall strength of market participation.
Range: 0–100
Low Values
• Weak conviction
• Choppy conditions
• Poor acceptance
High Values
• Strong conviction
• Trend continuation environment
• High-quality directional movement
The Acceptance Score can be used as a confidence filter for trade selection.
TRADING IDEAS
Trend Following
Look for:
• X15 Flow above zero
• X5 Flow above zero
• Flow Score = +2 or +3
Use bullish pullbacks and long re-acceptance signals as entry opportunities.
Short Selling
Look for:
• X15 Flow below zero
• X5 Flow below zero
• Flow Score = -2 or -3
Use bearish pullbacks and short re-acceptance signals as entry opportunities.
Momentum Expansion
Strong momentum often occurs when:
• Histogram expands rapidly
• Acceptance Score rises
• Flow Score reaches extreme alignment
This combination frequently appears during trend continuation phases.
BEST MARKETS
• NASDAQ
• Index Futures
• High-Volume Stocks
• ETFs
• Cryptocurrency Markets
Recommended Timeframes:
• 1 Minute
• 2 Minute
• 5 Minute
• 15 Minute
SUMMARY
VWAP Acceptance Flow PRO transforms VWAP behavior into a complete market-flow model. By combining acceptance, momentum, trend alignment, pullback detection, and re-acceptance signals, it helps traders identify when markets are building conviction and when higher-probability trend opportunities are emerging. Indicatore

Miggoy's regime overlayA market-regime dashboard that scores the overall environment for swing trading and colors your chart background green, yellow, or red so you can tell at a glance whether conditions favor putting on risk.
The script grades three independent conditions, each worth one point:
1 · Price Structure — SPY stacked above its 10 EMA, with the 10 EMA above the 20 EMA. Confirms a clean short-term uptrend with price leading.
2 · Net 52-Week Highs minus Lows — More new highs than new lows across the market. A positive read means broad participation rather than a narrow rally.
3 · Volatility — Fear draining out of the tape, defined as VIX below its 20 EMA, and the 20 EMA below the 50 EMA (50 > 20 EMA > VIX). Signals a calm, trending environment rather than a spiking, defensive one.
Regime scoring
3 / 3 → GREEN — Full risk per trade, full aggression.
2 / 3 → YELLOW — Half risk, best setups only.
0–1 / 3 → RED — List building, no trades.
The chart background tints to match the regime, and a table summarizes each condition with a pass/fail check, the underlying values, and the suggested action. A "days in regime" counter tracks how long the current state has held.
Notes
All conditions are calculated on the daily timeframe regardless of your chart's timeframe, so the regime read stays consistent whether you're looking at a daily or an intraday chart.
Calculations use confirmed daily data with no lookahead, so the indicator does not repaint.
The high/low inputs default to YRHI.US and YRLO.US (52-week new highs and new lows). Adjust the symbols in settings if your data provider uses different tickers.
Alerts are included for each regime transition (green, yellow, red).
This is a decision-support tool for gauging market conditions, not a buy/sell signal generator. It tells you whether the environment supports trading, not what to trade. Indicatore

Indicatore

RSI Divergence (Bull/Bear) RSI Divergence (Bull/Bear) is an advanced momentum analysis indicator that automatically detects bullish and bearish RSI divergence between price action and the Relative Strength Index (RSI). These divergence signals can help traders identify potential market reversals, trend exhaustion, and high-probability trading opportunities across multiple financial markets.
The indicator continuously analyzes swing highs and swing lows in both price and RSI, highlighting areas where momentum no longer confirms the current price movement. These conditions often appear before significant trend reversals or corrective moves.
Features
• Automatic Bullish RSI Divergence Detection
• Automatic Bearish RSI Divergence Detection
• Swing High & Swing Low Analysis
• Visual Buy & Sell Signal Labels
• Divergence Confirmation Zones
• Optional RSI Sensitivity Settings
• Clean & Lightweight Chart Layout
• Multi-Timeframe Compatible
• Non-Repainting Divergence Detection
• Customizable Signal Display
How It Works
The indicator monitors price swings alongside RSI momentum.
When price forms a **Lower Low** while RSI forms a **Higher Low**, a **Bullish Divergence** is detected, suggesting weakening selling pressure and a possible bullish reversal.
When price forms a **Higher High** while RSI forms a **Lower High**, a **Bearish Divergence** is detected, indicating weakening buying momentum and a potential bearish reversal Signals are displayed directly on the chart, allowing traders to quickly identify possible turning points.
Signal Types
🟢 Bullish Divergence
• Price makes a Lower Low
• RSI makes a Higher Low
• Possible bullish reversal
• Momentum strengthening
🔴 Bearish Divergence
• Price makes a Higher High
• RSI makes a Lower High
• Possible bearish reversal
• Momentum weakening
Best Markets
• Forex • Gold (XAUUSD) • Silver (XAGUSD)
• Crypto • Indices • Stocks • Futures
Recommended Timeframes
Scalping • M5 • M15
Intraday • M30 • H1
Swing Trading • H4 • Daily
Indicator Highlights
• Automatic RSI Divergence Detection
• Early Reversal Identification
• Visual Buy & Sell Signals
• High-Probability Momentum Analysis
• Non-Repainting Logic
• Adjustable RSI Parameters
• Beginner Friendly
• Professional Trading Tool
• Works in Trending and Ranging Markets
Suggested Trading Workflow
1. Identify the overall market trend.
2. Wait for a Bullish or Bearish RSI Divergence signal.
3. Confirm the setup using market structure, support/resistance, or candlestick confirmation.
4. Enter the trade with proper risk management and position sizing.
Notes
This indicator is designed to assist traders in identifying potential momentum shifts through RSI divergence analysis. It should be used alongside market structure, price action, and sound risk management principles. Like all technical analysis tools, it does not predict future price movements or guarantee profitable trades. Indicatore

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Speculation/Caution Ratio█ OVERVIEW
Speculation/Caution Ratio (NDX/DJU, raw) plots the Nasdaq-100 divided by the Dow Jones Utility Average as an absolute level in a separate pane, with reference lines at documented historical milestones and a label showing the current ratio. It is the long-history companion to the detrended sector z-score. It deliberately preserves the non-stationary level so that the full record from 1985 to the present, including the 2000 peak, is visible on a single pane.
█ HISTORY / BACKGROUND
The ratio of the Nasdaq-100 to the Dow Jones Utility Average as a speculation-versus-caution gauge is associated with Robert Prechter and Elliott Wave International. The reasoning is that the Nasdaq-100 represents high-beta, long-duration growth, standing in for speculation, while the Dow Jones Utility Average, a price-weighted average of fifteen utilities, represents low-beta, yield-driven caution. Observed levels include approximate parity in the 1980s, roughly 15 to 1 at the March 2000 peak, a decline toward 3 to 1 across the post-2000 decade, and a higher reading in the 2020s. These are descriptive observations of where the ratio has traded, not signals.
█ HOW IT WORKS
• Both legs are requested with request.security at the chart resolution using closing values.
• The ratio is the numerator close divided by the denominator close, computed only when both legs are present and positive.
• An optional simple moving average smooths the ratio when the smoothing length is greater than 1. At the default of 1, the raw ratio is plotted.
• Horizontal reference lines are drawn at 1, 3, and 15, corresponding to the historical levels described above.
• On the last bar, a label prints the current ratio to one decimal place.
█ HOW TO USE
Read the line as the prevailing balance of offensive versus defensive leadership. A rising ratio indicates speculation outpacing caution; a falling ratio indicates the reverse. The reference lines provide historical context: proximity to the 15 line recalls the 2000 peak, the 1 line marks historical parity, and the 3 line marks the post-2000 trough.
Recommended timeframe is weekly or monthly for the secular view. Note that the level is not comparable across decades; see Notes. For a calibrated, cross-era reading, use the companion z-score script.
Visual elements: the ratio line is teal. The 1 and 3 references are gray, dashed and dotted respectively, and the 15 reference is orange dashed. The last-bar label shows the live value.
█ SETTINGS
• Speculation leg (numerator): default NASDAQ:NDX (Nasdaq-100).
• Caution leg (denominator): default DJ:DJU (Dow Jones Utility Average). If it does not load, try TVC:DJU.
• Smoothing (SMA, bars): 1 plots the raw ratio; higher values reduce visual noise. Default 1, minimum 1.
• Show historical reference levels: toggles the 1, 3, and 15 lines. Default on.
• Label current ratio: toggles the last-bar value label. Default on.
█ WHAT MAKES IT ORIGINAL
This is a faithful implementation of a known public construct rather than a new method, and it is published open. Its contribution is framing and disclosure. It pairs the raw ratio with documented historical reference levels and an explicit statement of the level's non-stationarity, and it is built as the deep-history half of a two-part pairing whose other half supplies the calibrated, detrended reading. The value it adds is the long, uninterrupted record that cap-weighted, sector-clean pairs cannot reach on this platform.
█ NOTES / LIMITATIONS
• Non-stationary level. The ratio drifts upward over decades because of index composition changes, divergent sector earnings growth, and the interest-rate cycle. Absolute levels are not comparable across eras, and a new high does not by itself establish a new sentiment extreme. Use the companion z-score for a comparable reading.
• Construction mismatch. The numerator is a modified cap-weighted index; the denominator is a price-weighted average of fifteen stocks. The two are not built on the same basis, which is part of why the level is not a clean sentiment measure.
• Symbol availability. The Dow Jones Utility Average symbol convention varies by data feed. If DJ:DJU returns na, substitute TVC:DJU. The Nasdaq-100 numerator requires history from 1985 for the full record.
• Real-time behavior. Confirmed historical values do not repaint. The current bar updates while it is open and settles on close. No lookahead is requested.
• Chart symbol. Output depends only on the two leg inputs. The chart's own symbol does not affect the calculation.
• Reference lines are descriptive context, not buy or sell signals. Indicatore

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Strong Weak Highs Lowsstrong Weak Highs & Lows is a market structure indicator that automatically classifies swing points based on price behavior and trend context. Instead of simply plotting highs and lows, it helps traders distinguish between levels that are likely to hold and levels that are more vulnerable to being broken.
The indicator identifies:
* **WH (Weak High)**
* **SH (Strong High)**
* **WL (Weak Low)**
* **SL (Strong Low)**
This provides a clearer view of liquidity, market intent, and potential breakout targets.
Understanding the Labels
Weak High (WH)
A Weak High is a swing high that has a higher probability of being broken in the future.
Characteristics:
* Usually forms during bullish market conditions.
* Indicates buyers remain in control.
* Often becomes a future liquidity target.
Strong High (SH)
A Strong High is a swing high that successfully rejects price and is more likely to hold.
Characteristics:
* Often forms during bearish conditions.
* Indicates seller presence.
* Acts as a potential resistance level.
Weak Low (WL)
A Weak Low is a swing low that has a higher probability of being broken.
Characteristics:
* Common during bearish trends.
* Indicates continued downside pressure.
* Frequently becomes a liquidity target.
Strong Low (SL)
A Strong Low is a swing low that successfully defends against further selling.
Characteristics:
* Often forms during bullish conditions.
* Indicates buyer strength.
* Acts as potential support.
What the Chart Demonstrates
Using the NVIDIA (NVDA) 1H chart:
📈 During bullish phases, the indicator identified multiple **Weak Highs (WH)** while marking **Strong Lows (SL)** beneath price, highlighting continued buyer dominance.
📉 As momentum weakened, **Strong Highs (SH)** began appearing near market turning points, signaling increasing seller control.
🎯 Weak levels often became natural liquidity targets before price reversed or continued its trend.
🔄 The ongoing alternation between strong and weak swing points provides valuable context for anticipating future market structure developments.
Why This Matters
Many traders focus solely on where highs and lows are located.
Professional price action analysis also considers:
* Which highs are likely to be broken
* Which lows are likely to hold
* Where liquidity is resting
* Where stop orders may be clustered
* Which side currently controls market structure
Strong Weak Highs & Lows helps visualize these concepts automatically.
Features
✔ Automatic swing detection
✔ Strong vs Weak classification
✔ Liquidity target identification
✔ Market structure context
✔ Clean chart visualization
✔ Non-repainting swing confirmation
✔ Multi-timeframe support
✔ Suitable for Smart Money Concepts (SMC)
How to Use
Bullish Environment
* Focus on Strong Lows (SL).
* Expect Weak Highs (WH) to be targeted and potentially broken.
* Look for continuation opportunities after pullbacks.
Bearish Environment
* Focus on Strong Highs (SH).
* Expect Weak Lows (WL) to be targeted and potentially broken.
* Look for selling opportunities during retracements.
Liquidity Analysis
* Weak highs and weak lows often act as future liquidity magnets.
* Use them as potential target zones for trend continuation trades.
Best Applications
* Market Structure Trading
* Smart Money Concepts (SMC)
* Liquidity Analysis
* Swing Trading
* Trend Following
* Intraday Trading
* Higher Timeframe Confirmation
Notes
Strong and Weak classifications are based on market structure behavior and are not direct buy or sell signals. The indicator is designed to help traders understand the strength behind swing points and improve decision-making around support, resistance, and liquidity.
For best results, combine with:
* Break of Structure (BOS)
* Change of Character (CHoCH)
* Supply & Demand Zones
* Risk Management Rules
Strong Weak Highs & Lows transforms ordinary swing analysis into actionable market structure insight by identifying which levels are likely to hold and which levels are likely to become future liquidity targets. Indicatore

Indicatore

Elliott Wave AnalysisElliott Wave Analysis Indicator for TradingView
A comprehensive Pine Script indicator that helps identify and label Elliott Wave patterns with full customization.
Features:
Wave Patterns (toggle on/off)
Impulse Waves (1-2-3-4-5)
Corrections (A-B-C)
Flats (3-3-5 structure)
Zigzags (5-3-5 structure)
Triangles, Flags, Wedges (a-b-c-d-e)
Wave Degrees (15 hierarchical levels - toggle individually)
Supermillennium → Miniscule
Proper numbering for each degree (Roman numerals, Arabic numerals, circled numbers, etc.)
Technical Tools
Trend Channels: Auto-detects and draws upper/lower channels
Fibonacci Retracement: 0%, 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, 78.6%, 100%
Fibonacci Extension: 127.2%, 161.8%, 200%, 261.8%
Visual Design
White color only (no distractions)
Clean, professional appearance
Fully optional inputs—show only what you need
How It Works:
Customize via indicator settings to toggle wave patterns, degrees, channels, and Fibonacci levels on/off. Adapt the indicator to match your Elliott Wave analysis timeframe and trading style. Indicatore

STX Intraday - War Room v2 STX Intraday — War Room
El panel de la sala de mercados STX Desk, en tu gráfico de XAUUSD.
War Room es la herramienta de análisis intradía que usa el equipo STX Desk para leer el oro en tiempo real. Reúne en un solo panel
todo el contexto de una operación —bias, estructura, zonas y gatillo de entrada— para que veas cómo se construye una decisión, paso
a paso, igual que en la sala.
¿Qué muestra?
- Bias multi-temporal. Lee la dirección en H4, H1 y M15 a la vez y resume el sesgo dominante del día.
- Zonas OTE + Fibonacci. Marca la zona de entrada óptima (0.618–0.786) y proyecta los objetivos por extensión (1.618 / 2.0 / 2.618)
con buffer de broker.
- Detección de estructura. Pivotes, doble techo / doble suelo y barridos de liquidez (ICT) sobre el rango reciente.
- Order Block M15. Identifica el bloque de origen tras un desplazamiento con cuerpo dominante.
- Sniper M5 / M1. Afina el gatillo de entrada con confirmaciones y mecha de rechazo mínimas.
- Panel «MARKET STATE». Un tablero que resume el estado del mercado y los niveles activos (PDH, PDL, Asian High, entrada OTE).
- Plan de operación completo. Cada lectura se expresa con entrada, invalidación (SL por ATR) y TP1/TP2/TP3 — un plan, no una flecha
suelta.
Para quién
Para el trader que ya domina las bases y quiere operar el oro con el mismo marco que la sala STX Desk. Es el corazón del programa
Pro.
▎ Herramienta de apoyo a la decisión y estudio; no constituye recomendación de inversión ni garantiza resultados. El trading
▎ implica riesgo de pérdida de capital. Indicatore

Index Breadth % Above Key Moving AveragesDescription:
This indicator measures the percentage of constituents in a selected index trading above a chosen moving average — a core read on market breadth and internal market health, beyond what price action on the index itself reveals.
What it does
Rather than calculating breadth from individual constituents (which runs into symbol-count limitations), this script pulls pre-aggregated breadth data feeds covering the S&P 500 (including 10 individual sectors), Nasdaq, Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones, Russell 2000/3000, and the broader market. You can select any of these markets and check the percentage above the 20, 50, 100, 150, or 200-day moving average.
Breadth Moving Average (new)
A configurable moving average of the breadth line itself has been added, with a choice of SMA, EMA, WMA, or HMA. This lets you track breadth momentum rather than just the absolute reading — a cross above the MA after a period of depressed breadth often precedes broader market expansion, while a cross below can flag internal deterioration before it shows up in price.
Features
-Selectable market and moving average length
-Configurable Greed/Fear zone thresholds with visual fill highlighting
-Breadth MA with four smoothing options
-Crossover markers (triangles) flagging momentum shifts
-Built-in alerts for MA crossovers and Greed/Fear zone entries
How to use it
Watch for breadth crossing above its own moving average while still in or near the Fear zone — this combination has historically flagged durable turns rather than short-lived bounces. Conversely, breadth crossing below its MA while elevated can warn of distribution before the index itself rolls over. Cross-referencing breadth across multiple indices (e.g., S&P 500 vs. Nasdaq 100) helps identify whether market strength is broad-based or concentrated in a handful of names.
Credit
Original breadth data implementation by Esti0000. This version adds the breadth moving average, crossover detection, alert conditions, and visual enhancements. Published under the same Mozilla Public License 2.0. Indicatore

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Margin Debt Expansion vs Contraction Indicator█ OVERVIEW
This indicator plots the year-over-year percentage change in U.S. margin debt alongside the DJIA to identify major market tops and bottoms. When speculative leverage expands rapidly into the red zone, a market top is forming. When leverage contracts sharply into the green zone, a washout has occurred and a buying opportunity is likely at hand. The concept is adapted from Callum Thomas of Topdown Charts, who has published extensively on the relationship between margin debt momentum and equity market turning points.
The indicator uses the Federal Reserve's Z.1 Financial Accounts series for broker/dealer customer receivables (FRED symbol
BOGZ1FL663067003Q
) as a proxy for FINRA margin debt. This is a quarterly series. FINRA's own monthly margin debt data is not available natively on TradingView, so this quarterly proxy is the best available substitute. The directional signal and zone logic remain valid, though zone crossings will appear with a slight lag compared to monthly data.
█ HOW IT WORKS
The indicator computes the year-over-year percentage change in margin debt by comparing the current quarter's value to the value four quarters prior. This YoY% rate of change is the core signal. Raw margin debt levels trend upward over time with market growth, making absolute levels less informative than the rate of change, which captures the acceleration and deceleration of speculative leverage.
Two colored zones highlight the critical regimes:
Red zone (+40% to +55% YoY)
Margin debt is expanding at a pace historically associated with speculative excess. Investors are borrowing aggressively to chase returns, and the market is vulnerable to a sharp correction. Major tops in 2000, 2007, and 2021 were preceded by margin debt YoY% reaching or entering this zone.
Green zone (-20% to -40% YoY)
Margin debt is contracting at a pace historically associated with capitulation and forced deleveraging. This typically coincides with or shortly follows major market lows. The 2002-2003, 2008-2009, and 2020 bottoms all registered margin debt YoY% readings in or near this zone.
The YoY% line changes color based on the active regime: red when at or above the red zone lower bound, green when at or below the green zone upper bound, and neutral otherwise.
█ SIGNALS
The indicator provides four distinct signal types, each with a corresponding alert condition:
Zone entries
• Red Zone Entry (triangle-down marker): YoY% crosses above +40% for the first time. This is the initial top warning.
• Green Zone Entry (triangle-up marker): YoY% crosses below -20% for the first time. This is the initial buy-the-dip signal.
Rollovers
• Red Zone Rollover (circle marker): YoY% peaks and begins declining while still inside the red zone. This is a top confirmation, suggesting the rate of leverage expansion has peaked and the market is losing its speculative fuel.
• Green Zone Rollover (circle marker): YoY% troughs and begins rising while still inside the green zone. This is a bottom confirmation, suggesting the worst of the deleveraging is behind.
Rollovers are arguably the sharper timing signals. A zone entry tells you the regime is dangerous or washed out; a rollover within that zone tells you the turn is underway.
█ INPUTS
Zone Thresholds
All four zone boundaries are configurable. The defaults (+40/+55 for red, -20/-40 for green) are derived from the historical distribution of margin debt YoY% at major turning points, but users may wish to adjust them for sensitivity.
Display
• Show DJIA Overlay: Toggles a reference DJIA price plot. Note that because the indicator runs in a separate pane, the DJIA overlay uses `display.none` by default and is available primarily for data reference via the Data Window.
• Show Zone Entry Labels: Toggles the triangle and circle markers at signal points.
█ LIMITATIONS
• The underlying FRED series (
BOGZ1FL663067003Q
) is quarterly, not monthly. Values are held constant between quarterly prints, producing a step-like YoY% line. Zone crossings may appear one quarter later than they would with FINRA's monthly data. This is a data availability constraint on TradingView, not a methodological choice.
• Margin debt is a coincident-to-lagging indicator of speculative sentiment. It confirms regime shifts rather than predicting them. It should be used alongside leading indicators (breadth, credit spreads, yield curve) rather than in isolation.
• The FRED series occasionally returns fetch errors on TradingView. If the indicator shows no data, removing and re-adding it to the chart typically resolves the issue.
• This indicator is designed for use on the DJIA (or S&P 500) on a daily timeframe. Applying it to other instruments or intraday timeframes will produce misleading results, since the underlying data is a macro leverage measure for U.S. equities.
• The red and green zone thresholds are empirically derived from a relatively small sample of major market cycles (~6 complete cycles since 1995). They should be treated as guideposts, not bright lines.
█ DATA SOURCE
The data comes from the Federal Reserve's Z.1 Financial Accounts, specifically the series "Security Brokers and Dealers; Receivables Due from Customers (Margin Loans and Other Receivables); Asset, Level," accessed via
BOGZ1FL663067003Q
on TradingView. This series is a close proxy for, but not identical to, the FINRA margin debt data that FINRA member firms report monthly. The FRED series is derived from the same underlying regulatory reporting but is aggregated and published quarterly by the Federal Reserve as part of the Flow of Funds accounts.
Historical context: this data was originally published by the NYSE. FINRA assumed responsibility for aggregating and distributing margin statistics from its member firms. The underlying economic meaning has remained consistent across the transition. Indicatore

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