Amazon (AMZN) has stalled its massive rally since the April 2025 Low as since November 03 it has been unable to make a new All Time High (ATH). That is because that day it hit a key Resistance, its 5-year Higher Highs trend-line, technically the top of its long-term Channel Up.
The resulting correction found Support on its long-term level o 1W MA50 (red trend-line), which has been holding firmly since mid may 2025. Given the similar 1W RSI Bearish Divergence to 2021, we believe the market has already topped and will start a new Bear Cycle correction. But in order for this to be confirmed, the price needs to close its first 1W candle below the 1W MA50.
If that takes place, we expect a first sell-off towards the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) and then after a rebound, bearish continuation to at least the 1M MA100 (blue trend-line), which is where the previous Bear Cycle bottomed in late December 2022. Based on its current trajectory, we see a potential contact at $150.
Note that a full Bear Cycle, similar to 2022 (which is only realistic if the stock closes a month (1M candle) below the 1M MA100, as it has been holding since November 2026!), could lead us to a total -57% correction, a little below $115.
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The resulting correction found Support on its long-term level o 1W MA50 (red trend-line), which has been holding firmly since mid may 2025. Given the similar 1W RSI Bearish Divergence to 2021, we believe the market has already topped and will start a new Bear Cycle correction. But in order for this to be confirmed, the price needs to close its first 1W candle below the 1W MA50.
If that takes place, we expect a first sell-off towards the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) and then after a rebound, bearish continuation to at least the 1M MA100 (blue trend-line), which is where the previous Bear Cycle bottomed in late December 2022. Based on its current trajectory, we see a potential contact at $150.
Note that a full Bear Cycle, similar to 2022 (which is only realistic if the stock closes a month (1M candle) below the 1M MA100, as it has been holding since November 2026!), could lead us to a total -57% correction, a little below $115.
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** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. **
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ノート
Typo on the last paragraph: The 1M MA100 has been holding since November 2006! The market's ultimate long-term Support.
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I trade Crypto, Forex, Indices & Commodities on PrimeXBT — all from one account with TradingView charts 👉 tradingshot.short.gy/PrimeXBT
I also use TradeNation for fixed spreads & zero commission 👉 tradingshot.short.gy/Tradenation
I also use TradeNation for fixed spreads & zero commission 👉 tradingshot.short.gy/Tradenation
免責事項
これらの情報および投稿は、TradingViewが提供または承認する金融、投資、取引、またはその他の種類の助言もしくは推奨であることを意図したものではなく、またこれらに該当するものでもありません。詳細は利用規約をご覧ください。