1. Recap of My Last BTC Outlook (5 November)
In the 5th November analysis, I noted that the 106k support zone was under pressure, and if that level failed, the next meaningful target would be 90k — because 100k, despite being psychological, should not offer much after technical break.
That played out perfectly:
- 106k failed
- 100k offered nothing but a small rebound
- BTC dropped straight into the 90k zone
And then continued even deeper, almost touching 80k before rebounding
We’re now trading around 87,500, after a textbook corrective bounce.
2. Is the Bottom In?
➡️ In my opinion, no. Definitely not.
And here’s where I apply my usual contrarian filter:
Whenever I start hearing the same voices saying the same thing —
“Bitcoin bottom is in! Bitcoin up only!”
— I immediately become cautious.
These are the same people who never consider the other side of the market.
A broken compass can show the right direction once in a while, but it’s still broken.
3. Technical Picture – Nothing Bullish Here
- Yes, the bounce from 80k is normal and expected.
- Yes, BTC can easily retrace 10–15k after a large drop.
- But nothing in the current structure suggests a meaningful bottom.
What we have right now is:
- A classic corrective rebound
- Weak impulse
- No break back above of important resistance
- No reversal pattern
- No shift in market bias
It looks exactly like what price should do after a violent leg down — not like a new bull trend.
This is the type of rebound where retail screams “moon,” but professionals simply prepare for another sell.
4. My Outlook – Bearish Until BTC Reclaims 100k With Conviction
My plan is simple and level-driven:
Preferred Sell Zone:
- 92k → This is where I want to sell, ideally on a weak rally
Downside Targets:
- 80k → Recent low and first logical stop
- 75k → Major structural support and second target
Bearish outlook is invalidated ONLY if:
➡️ BTC reclaims 100k with conviction (not a wick, not a temporary spike)
Until that happens, every rally is a potential shorting opportunity.
5. Conclusion – Still Bearish, Despite the Bounce
BTC has done exactly what it was supposed to do:
- Drop to 90k
- Overshoot to 80k
- And bounce in a corrective manner
Nothing about this price action signals a bottom.
If anything, it signals more downside ahead — once the corrective rally into 92k completes.
Bias: Bearish
Approach: Sell rallies
Invalidation: Break and hold above 100k with conviction
Until then, the narrative “bitcoin up only” remains a meme, not analysis. ⚠️
In the 5th November analysis, I noted that the 106k support zone was under pressure, and if that level failed, the next meaningful target would be 90k — because 100k, despite being psychological, should not offer much after technical break.
That played out perfectly:
- 106k failed
- 100k offered nothing but a small rebound
- BTC dropped straight into the 90k zone
And then continued even deeper, almost touching 80k before rebounding
We’re now trading around 87,500, after a textbook corrective bounce.
2. Is the Bottom In?
➡️ In my opinion, no. Definitely not.
And here’s where I apply my usual contrarian filter:
Whenever I start hearing the same voices saying the same thing —
“Bitcoin bottom is in! Bitcoin up only!”
— I immediately become cautious.
These are the same people who never consider the other side of the market.
A broken compass can show the right direction once in a while, but it’s still broken.
3. Technical Picture – Nothing Bullish Here
- Yes, the bounce from 80k is normal and expected.
- Yes, BTC can easily retrace 10–15k after a large drop.
- But nothing in the current structure suggests a meaningful bottom.
What we have right now is:
- A classic corrective rebound
- Weak impulse
- No break back above of important resistance
- No reversal pattern
- No shift in market bias
It looks exactly like what price should do after a violent leg down — not like a new bull trend.
This is the type of rebound where retail screams “moon,” but professionals simply prepare for another sell.
4. My Outlook – Bearish Until BTC Reclaims 100k With Conviction
My plan is simple and level-driven:
Preferred Sell Zone:
- 92k → This is where I want to sell, ideally on a weak rally
Downside Targets:
- 80k → Recent low and first logical stop
- 75k → Major structural support and second target
Bearish outlook is invalidated ONLY if:
➡️ BTC reclaims 100k with conviction (not a wick, not a temporary spike)
Until that happens, every rally is a potential shorting opportunity.
5. Conclusion – Still Bearish, Despite the Bounce
BTC has done exactly what it was supposed to do:
- Drop to 90k
- Overshoot to 80k
- And bounce in a corrective manner
Nothing about this price action signals a bottom.
If anything, it signals more downside ahead — once the corrective rally into 92k completes.
Bias: Bearish
Approach: Sell rallies
Invalidation: Break and hold above 100k with conviction
Until then, the narrative “bitcoin up only” remains a meme, not analysis. ⚠️
トレード稼働中
BTC has entered my sell zone
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🎯 Want More Trading Ideas?
📈 Join the FREE Forex & Gold Channel
👉 t.me/intradaytradingsignals
💎 Join the FREE Crypto Channel
👉 t.me/FanCryptocurrency
📈 Join the FREE Forex & Gold Channel
👉 t.me/intradaytradingsignals
💎 Join the FREE Crypto Channel
👉 t.me/FanCryptocurrency
関連の投稿
免責事項
これらの情報および投稿は、TradingViewが提供または承認する金融、投資、取引、またはその他の種類の助言もしくは推奨であることを意図したものではなく、またこれらに該当するものでもありません。詳細は利用規約をご覧ください。