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ビットコイン／米ドル

Bitcooin Major invalidation: breaks below 107793 then 105054k$

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Technical Overview – Summary Points
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  • Momentum: Strong bullish bias across all timeframes, confirmed by the Risk On / Risk Off Indicator.
  • Key Support/Resistance: HTF daily pivot zone 105054–102019. Major resistances: 109179 then 110483–111949. Key supports: 107793–105054.
  • Volume: Normal and healthy on all TFs, no euphoria; uptick on 30min, watch for breakout confirmation.
  • Multi-TF Behavior: Bullish consolidation, no behavioral excesses detected. ISPD DIV strictly neutral, no panic or euphoria visible.


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Strategic Summary
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  • Global Bias: Dominant bullish structure. Trend remains steady as long as the HTF daily support 105054–102019 holds.
  • Opportunities: Buy on dips, target the confirmed breakout of 109179 to extend towards 110483–111949. “Buy-the-dip” remains relevant on 107793–105054.
  • Risk zones: Volatility expected around the FOMC minutes (07/09) & risks linked to the end of the US tariffs suspension. Neutral/bearish scenario below 105054.
  • Macro catalysts: FOMC, US tariff decision, bullish institutional news; exercise caution ahead of major 07/09 events.
  • Action Plan: Active management on macro catalysts; stops below 107793 (ST) or 105054 (swing). Act post-news for signal confirmation.


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Multi-Timeframe Analysis
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  1. 1D: Bullish structure, consolidating below key resistance at 110483/111949. Buyers control above 105054–102019.
  2. 12H/6H/4H: Upper-range under control, no signs of distribution or exhaustion. 109179 is immediate resistance to watch for breakout.
  3. 2H/1H: Active micro-range between 107793–109179. “Buy the dip” on support, execute on confirmed breakout.
  4. 30min/15min: No extreme signals, moderate volatility, volumes contained; breakout needs to be confirmed above 109179.
  5. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator: Strong BUY signal from daily to 30min, still positive on 15min.
  6. Summary: Homogeneous context, robust bullish trend. Major resistances ahead, no case for counter-trend shorting while key supports hold.


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Cross-Analysis & Fundamentals
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  • On-chain trend: Massive HODLing, no selling pressure, stable liquidity, institutions buying.
  • Macro & calendar: High uncertainty for 07/09. Watch FOMC minutes, end of US tariffs, US auctions, oil inventories. Extreme volatility possible—caution.
  • Risk Management Synthesis: Buy on support/lower range, active management pre-catalysts, technical stop below 107793/105054, targets at resistance 110483–111949.
Ox_kali
patreon.com/0x_Kali
他のメディア:
FOMCTechnical IndicatorsTrend AnalysisWave Analysis

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FOMCTechnical IndicatorsTrend AnalysisWave Analysis
Ox_kali
patreon.com/0x_Kali
他のメディア:

免責事項

これらの情報および投稿は、TradingViewが提供または承認する金融、投資、取引、またはその他の種類の助言もしくは推奨であることを意図したものではなく、またこれらに該当するものでもありません。詳細は利用規約をご覧ください。