Crude oil had a pretty sharp drop yesterday after Trump said the US was in talks with Iran, but it is still not really clear whether this is confirmed or just something that temporarily pressured the market.
Looking at the price action, we still think that a higher degree correction will continue, as we have five waves down from the 120 spike. In our view, we are now in the middle of a higher degree A-B-C decline, therefore, oil could resume !!!BUT!! after wave B is completed, which is still in an intraday corrective recovery phase.
Resistance is seen around 104 to 107, and possibly even up to 110, which also aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci level. That zone could act as an area from where weakness resumes, but after another short term push higher as presented on the 4h chart where recent sell-off stoped at 61.8% Fib support.
However, if price continues to move sideways instead of pushing higher, then a triangle could also develop here, but for now thats an alternate scenario. So its not the primary view, as the rebound from the March 10 low looks like an impulsive wave A so zigzag fits better to this structure.
Looking at the price action, we still think that a higher degree correction will continue, as we have five waves down from the 120 spike. In our view, we are now in the middle of a higher degree A-B-C decline, therefore, oil could resume !!!BUT!! after wave B is completed, which is still in an intraday corrective recovery phase.
Resistance is seen around 104 to 107, and possibly even up to 110, which also aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci level. That zone could act as an area from where weakness resumes, but after another short term push higher as presented on the 4h chart where recent sell-off stoped at 61.8% Fib support.
However, if price continues to move sideways instead of pushing higher, then a triangle could also develop here, but for now thats an alternate scenario. So its not the primary view, as the rebound from the March 10 low looks like an impulsive wave A so zigzag fits better to this structure.
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