The DJI did not close below the 200 SMA on a daily timeframe since June 27th, 2016. This is a major signal, which could be one of the reasons Trump decided to ease the tensions with China, at least for now. Potentially expecting the Fed to back off the rate hikes to lower the dollar or make some announcement stop the drop in indices. With all the tensions now, a strong dollar is more damaging to the US economy.
Dow respected each fib level and now price is still at 61.8% retracement. Elliot waves suggest that we could see a test of the trend line, where the corrective wave ends and a new trend should start to emerge. But a 3rd touch and bounce of the trendline is needed, which would make it a good setup to trade.
With price below both 50 and 200 SMA’s, a break above 24600 is needed for a long term long position.
RSI approaching oversold area as well and reaching 30 on it seems to be in line with price touching the trend line soon.
Today’s GDP will shed further light on the US economy and could provide a boost depending on the figures. I would expect that a figure lower than 2% or higher than 2.4% is needed for a serious price dollar move.
With both GBPUSD, EURUSD testing the trend line support again and DXY testing resistance, we could see some explosive moves today on the majors, which will reflect on the Dow.
Happy Trading!
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